Olectra Greentech - Electric Bus Opportunity

In my opinion nothing to worry about the valuations.
Next year bus numbers would be in the range of 2000-2500, which would take revenue above 3000 Cr. This will bring down the valuations to P/S of 3-4x. Olectra is able to sustain at these valuations because of the order book of > 10000 buses and as long as they are able to maintain the good order book valuations will sustain.

Q3 & Q4 bus delivery numbers will confirm whether they can achieve targeted numbers in FY26 or not. They should win some good orders in the coming quarters and FY26 to continue the momentum.

On the other hand, Author of the article is also a normal investor like us with some limited understanding.

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Don’t get into this trap.
They are going to flip the plate at any time. Management of Easytrip is fooling the investors. Now they want to add 2000 EV buses to their subsidiary Yolo bus, which currently has < 100 buses, this itself is a myth as increasing 20x capacity is not advisable. Management told no E bus maker is able to supply 2000 buses in short time, i bet that they are lying. JBM auto is sitting with a huge capacity and limited order, they can start bus deliveries from 2-3 months time frame & can complete 2000 order in 12-15 months. Now Easy trip started R&D on the E bus manfacturing, they will send some hefty amount and give-up.

I feel all these tactics are to divert the funds from the company.

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Nov vahan data is not encouraging/not reflecting any major change.

Detailed news.

Disc: reduced investment from 5% to 3% as I have doubts on execution and meeting the targets for H2

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Vahan data doesn’t reflect the actual buses sold by the company, i don’t see any reason for less bus deliveries in Q3 as compared to Q2

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I know that Vahan doesn’t include TS (Telangana) data. So, I checked the Telangana state dataset (link), which shows that 148 buses were registered in October and 3 in November.

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Thanks for sharing TS data, Its impressive number in October.
We can expect 450-500 number of buses sales in the Q3 at a rate of 150/Month, which should increase to 200/Month by Q4 end if things go as per the plan.

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If you go through the previous concalls you can see that vahan data lags actual bus production as registration is done by state transport companies after receiving it through partner operations company. So TS data for October could be already convered in September,that is last quarter data.

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There was serious security concern with Olectra greentech buses. There will be detailed enquiry on the recent Mumbai BEST bus accident soon. This can lead to many cancellation of the orders soon.

More Details:

Happy Investing,
Karthik
Disclosure: I am not having any exposure to this counter. I was tracking all the Electric bus sales and future growth prospect for EV industries.

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The article you shared doesn’t say anything about Olectra’s fault in the accident. The driver was inexperienced with automatic transmission which might have caused him to lose control of the bus. Moreover, he seemed drunk.

Electric buses are the future. Drivers can’t dictate what they wish to drive. Either learn or allow newer generation drivers to take over.

I don’t see any threats to Olectra or its orders at all. I stay in Hyderabad and I see Olectra buses running around the city smoothly without any such incidents in the past.

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Hi, this is not related to just “Olectra Greentech”, but for all electric buses and even for Indian Railways. This is for the betterment of our Nation.

In our country, a 12 Lakhs-15 Lakhs car can have advanced ADAS features and automatic braking systems. Teslas and Waymos of the world are soon going to make driverless cars in the next 5-10 years.

Then why can’t a state of the art electric bus which costs anywhere between 1.5 crores to 2.5 crores in India, have these features. Also why our trains which are for 100s of crores per set, don’t have these automatic braking or slowing features using cameras and lidar systems which can even see through dense fog. These features can help in avoiding so many unnecessary accidents.

Sometimes the sheer uncaring attitude of our companies and lack of innovation, upsets me. Specially if these features are widely available all over the world and are not something very tough to crack or implement.

Regards,

Amit Goyal.

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Statistics on accidents from wet lease buses. Tata is doing better here

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These may not matter. But if things are not very good in Mumbai, chances of general good opinion and repeat orders may get affected.

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Good results, though topline slightly lower compared to Q2

Result link:

Insulator division contributed higher profit and topline compared to previous quarter and it is a silent revenue earner too.

As of now valuation cooled down to 85.4 PE, PB of 11.5 and market cap of 11,243 Cr. crores (down 15-17 % from previous quarter.

Delivery numbers: Number of buses delivered in Q3 is 282 (high value orders) and they are targetting to deliver 400+ buses in Q4 to achieve 1200+ numbers. Total delivered so far - 2440+ buses, highest in India. Thats 1/3rd of total of this year should come by this quarter. Current capacity is 200 buses per month, but optimisation is going to reach this optimum capacity.

Kms driven crossed 30 crore KMs from 28 crore KM. approx 5% of topline is AMC revenue and that will keep on growing based on KMs driven.

Other details - you can listen to conference call recording at https://olectra.com/wp-content/uploads/10029719.mp3

Disc: Invested about 2% of PF in Olectra and 1.8% in JBM. Both 6-7% higher than today’s closing price. Though EV plays less role, about 1.1% invested in Tata Motors at 10% higher than today’s close.

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olectra_greentech_call_transcript_q3fy25pdf.pdf (194.2 KB)

generated the transcript of Olectra’s earnings call using our AI tooling at stockinsights.ai. Sharing it here in case anyone would like to read through.

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I am quite disappointed with the Q3 execution, expecting a good number of buses delivery but its not happened.