Only JBM is leading in bus category.
Interestingly PMI numbers also down by 37%.
I hope this year Olectra numbers will be good as 1st phase of expansion is about to complete and 2nd phase will also get completed in the Q2FY25
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Wrote a short update on the Q4 results - here
Disclosure: Invested, looking to exit at current valuations.
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I think they may not hit the target of 300 buses in Q2, but most probably will end up ~ 200.
Per Vahan, there has been registration of 270 vehicles from Olectra. That’s 90% of the target for Q2 achieved.
I would be happy with the current 90% of the target achieved. That would be a big step up from the past. Hope things would improve from hereon.
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Good to see that this month registrations are ever highest.
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Anyone has bus registration data for Q1 2024 for Olectra?
As per previous concall they had assured of 500 buses to be delivered in H1, so Q1 = 150, Q2 = ~200. H1 total 350. So they have been under delivering as per their promise again this quarter. Not sure why is market not reacting to this repeated under delivery against forecast.
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Thats good. You have visibility where they closed Q1?
Per the Q1FY25 transcript, they delivered 156 E-buses. No tippers were delivered in Q1FY25.
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With PAT of 47 crores and a 163% increase in YoY profits in Q2, the PE has cooled down to 118 from a median of 169. Olectra may cross its ATH soon. Great time to accumulate for long term as the company is ramping up its production.
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good set of numbers but didnt lead to stock movement today. Maybe, markets have already baked in this much growth. Also, imo, such stock only make sharp movements on order wins, rather than good results.
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Latest concall Transcript after Q2 results.
Looking for expert comments.
What is the capacity of other players in the market as of today? Any idea about the current orderbook of each of the competitors?
Disc: Entered today at current levels and positively biased due to my investment.
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A blog which tracks 3 major companies Olectra, JBM and Ashok Leyland.
A good detailed analysis of the sector is in this webinar. (about 3 months old)
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As per the order book, Olectra has ~ 10000 buses order but capacity is scaling to 5000 buses/year by FY25 end.
I think JBM already has 5000 buses capacity & Order book is also ~ 5000 with recent wins of PM E- seva and private bus order of 2000.
JBM is in strong position to deliver buses quickly after order win, Olectra may take 2.5 years to complete the existing order book
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Thanks James for the shoutout to my blog! I think Olectra has a lot of untapped potential, but in general is quite slow in execution. This is a big opportunity (electric bus) and the best executor will WIN BIG!
Tata is emerging as a substantial player in this space as well.
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Thank you and glad to know it is your blog. It helped me. Having gone through many concalls, now I feel things may change as different building blocks fallen in place.
My concern is that lack of orderbook growth in this FY. If it is only due to timeline to service it, I am not concerned. From last 3 concalls I do hear more or less consistent guidance…
I am surprised JBM in general tight lipped, leave alone concalls, but even investor presentations are not released.(I couldn’t find, Iay be wrong).
Tata motors - do they report EV buses like they report EV passenger cars ?
I took a bet and keeping fingers crossed for Q3 and then Q4 results. If they miss big way, by this year end results, I will exit. Else, it should reward well and valuation will cool down.
Tracking the progress is easy here as moving parts are less compared to other three listed competitors. Any other listed competition @siddybee apart from Tata, Ashok Leyland, JBM Auto for EV bus space ? Even if Ashok Leyland or Tata motors execute well, it is still small part of their overall game…but if olectra wins it will win big and our investment can multiply many fold.
Disc: invested at current levels
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For Olectra, order book has not grown much because they’re fully blocked for the next 2 years I think. With current capacity of 2,500 e-buses expanding to 5,000 e-buses per annum at the end of the year – it will take them atleast 2 years to completely fullfil the orders. Some orders are also blocked because the STUs have not installed the infrastructure / charging stations required. A penalty of 2.2 Cr was levied on Olectra for delay in order execution for which they are in talks to waive it off.
For JBM – the management doesn’t release quarterly earnings transcripts. I’m not sure if they have quarterly calls with investors as well. The information is very limited, but their e-bus segment is doing really well. The valuations are very expensive for an entry point.
Tata does report EV numbers, you can find it in their quarterly PPT.
The future is very bright for this sector and Government schemes like PM E-drive and PM e-Bus Sewa indicate that the GoI is very serious about the electrification of public transport. So, if you’re invested in key players for the next 7-10 years - the probability of you making money is very high.
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Counterview based on high Price to Sales (PE and PB also elevated)
Vahan data of registrations (Olectra)
Oct 24 - 66
Nov 24 - 23 (as of today)
Total : 89
JBM Auto - 82
Nov - 10 (as of today)
Total: 92
Disc: Invested here at higher levels than current price, looking at new manufacturing facility and increased production of electric bus, extended agreement with BYD among others. Came to radar due to exceptional top line and bottom line growth in this quarter.
Risk: As this articile mentions, currently trading at steep valuations and further slipping from H2 & FY 26 guidance can de-rate the stock, but exceeding guidance can re-rate it. I am not qualified to advice.
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Ease Trip Planners (EaseMyTrip) is another listed company that’s venturing into assembling and manufacturing electric buses - source link
Thank you. When is the first bus gets rolled out?
I could see this.