Any views on the news of BYD setting up mega plant at Hyderabad? Given that byd is major supplier to olectra, what impact it may have?
Either the partnership grows further with olectra or byd can start manufacturing their own buses instead of supplying engines to olectra. But as of now i see the news that byd is planning for Car manufacturing only.
BYD investing 85k cr in India is still not verified news. Most likely fake news
Govt may not give permission to Chinese car makers to setup plant. It will disrupt the domestic industry.
On the Olectra front, they have agreement with BYD to supply battery packs till ~2030, by that time there will be so many battery pack suppliers in india to feed Olectra requirement.
In the buses manfacturing, i don’t think that Govt will allow BYD to bid any tenders and supply buses to ST’s.
Telangana govt identifies 200 acres for Chinese automotive giant BYD
Telangana govt identifies 200 acres for Chinese automotive giant BYD | Hyderabad News - The Times of India
Download the TOI app now:
https://timesofindia.onelink.me/mjFd/toisupershare
I guess it will be NO forever..
Then is this Chinese Media False Propaganda? If So, they can even disrupt with false news for other sector too.
I feel there was some offer from the Chinese player to open up market to reduce trade deficit. May be this was also discussed and got leaked somehow. Now Center has to give clarification on the same subject to clear the Air.
Happy Investing,
Karthik
Disclosure: I don’t have any exposure to this counter. Only Tracking EV progress and consumptions.
Below are March Sales Data for Electric Bus:
Happy Investing,
Karthik
Disclosure: I don’t have any exposure to this counter. Only Tracking EV progress and Ashok Leyland progress to EV
Management denies the news. Need to keep watch.
Listened to Olectra’s recent earnings call, and here’s my takeaway:
The real constraint in scaling up e-bus deliveries doesn’t seem to be manufacturing capacity (which the management says is currently at ~200 buses/month), but rather supply chain dependence on BYD, especially for battery systems and powertrains.
Tracking their order volumes to BYD could be a good proxy for near-term delivery potential. The only public reference I found is this recent order for 2,325 electric bus chassis:
MSRTC reinstated order with a revised schedule. 800+ in coming FY.
220 alreadt delivered
Now, as per the below article, Three stages “840 in 2025,
2,150 in 2026,
and 1,600 in 2027,”
But total is coming to 4810 against 5150
Listened to concall too and not sure if company can overcome supply side issues.
Was quickly scanning other competetion.
Tata motors production is less than 100 buses in Q4.
Switch mobility 200+
JBM yet to review.
Is there confirmation from other companies on supply side issues?
Disc:
Reduced Olectra investment to 2% and is above my buy price
JBM continues to be 3% and stock price recovered well, but still below 200 DMA.
Contemplating a small position in Ashok Leyland, it is trading above 200 DMA
Another small order cancellation of 40 buses without clarity on big order of 500 buses along with it. This order also delayed
I’ve been covering Olectra Greentech for quite some time now. There are not many pure play listed EV players in India, and Olectra gives you exposure to the electric bus market — which is rapidly expanding with the Government quite serious when it comes to the electrification of diesel buses launching schemes like PM e-Bus Sewa / PM E-DRIVE.
The reason I’ve been closely following Olectra is because it has an order book of >10,000 e-buses (for quite some time now) valued at INR 15,000 Cr, which is more than the company’s current market capitalization of INR 11,800 Cr.
So, there’s potential. But execution, is where Olectra falls behind.
Let’s look at some of the promises that the company made in the past and let’s compare that with what they actually achieved.
In Q1FY25, a penalty of INR 2.2 Cr was slapped on Olectra due to non-delivery of e-buses. Wouldn’t be surprised if such penalties are levied in the future too.
That said, not everything is dark and gloomy. Olectra is in the process of appointing a new CEO very soon, and I am hoping that the new CEO can run a tighter ship. I would suggest the company to hire a solid FP&A Director, who knows how to read the market trends and generate more accurate forecasts!
Olectra unveiled a new blade battery technology at Bharat Mobility Global Expo 2025 — which would increase bus mileage by 30% and reduce battery weight by 30%. These batteries would be supplied by BYD, Olectra’s technology partner.
Battery prices are coming down, which should bring down the cost of e-buses, leading to volume growth for the whole industry. Olectra is working on localization of components and working on other battery technologies to de-risk itself from BYD in the long term.
Olectra’s share price sums up the current investor sentiment. In the past 1Y, the stock has been flat — a direct function of missed estimates.
Price movement of Olectra Greentech [Source: Google Finance]
At a market capitalization of INR 12,500 Cr at a P/E of 88 times (at the time of writing this article), I think the company is over-valued, given the execution risks. I wouldn’t pay a premium for a management that consistently fails to meet it’s revised estimates.
It raises a very serious question — does the management not have the financial acumen and industry insights to forecast how demand / supply is going to move? How can revenue estimates drop by 60%? How can the management NOT know when capacity will go live?
I’m sitting on the sidelines, unless the stock corrects by 40-50% from current levels, at which point I see limited downside. The industry tailwinds are there, but the million dollar question is — can Olectra execute + capitalize on this growth?
Disclosure: Not invested, waiting for steep correction.
Gone through the recent interview of newly appointed MD again he is mentioning that lack of depot infra facilities as a reason, it means this year also achieving target may not be possible
