On point number 2, looking at past data, the number for Aug doesn’t seem to be the anomaly, but Jun and July are. Seems odd, this should be clarified in the next con call maybe.
On point number 3, the press note says policy upgrades for Evok 2, not version upgrade from 2 to 3 , would cause the blip. Since they’ve explicitly said a blip is expected, we should clarify this as well.
Hope they know what they’re doing and won’t try to disrupt the momentum 
Does anyone know the revenue split of NPST by different products?
And which products are driving the main growth?
By the time you are done about reading existing product, management comes with a new product. That’s how good management is. More than sector , it is the management of NPST on who I bet. They somehow find new product, new clients and they have been doing it for past 3 years so perfectly.
Even if there are lot of headwinds , they will still deliver.
Disc : Invested since 85rs(pre bonus). Heavily biased on promoters.
wow, you have done well by identifying this script so early.
As of last Q it’s 20% from TSP and 80% from evok.
Evok was launched in late 2022. So it’s not even 2 years and this is the contribution. It’s doesn’t take P.HD level math to understand that the near/medium prospects of company are tied to evok/cosmos angle.
They may say whatever on the number of products in pipeline and ready for launch But market may lookout for the prospects of evok ?
Evok topline was linked to transaction value/volume and hence it was easier to show super growth. TSP topline isn’t linked to transaction volume but to number of clients. So the growth was dwarfed by evok. iMHO the million dollar question is, which of future products can have characteristics similar to evok in terms of growth possibility.
For Sep it’s not part of Top 15. Which means it has fallen below the 38.28 Mn volume of 15th ranked player Central Bank of India. Not a good sign. Market would like an explanation.
the management has already clarified in their notification to BSE that they are launching / migrating to Evok3.0 and that may cause some issues ( not sure what are the exact wordings ) so not something which is a surprise.
For sure this fall is not attributed by upgrading process to latest version.
Tech product development does ensure backward compatibility.
If they hvnt thought about this, then their product management is pretty poor.
To me, it is business headwind and not a temporary issue due to new product / version roll out
I am not sure of the co-relation that everyone sees. For eg. in quarter ending Dec 2023, Cosmos PSP payee volumes grew by 73%, but NPST revenues grew by 12%. Then in Mar 2024, PSP volumes grew by 73%, and NPST revenue grew by 39%. Post this, in June 2024, PSP volumes grew almost by 200%, but revenue growth dropped to 35%. If Cosmos payee PSP volume growth was such a big factor, June 2024 should have reported blockbuster growth.
Also, Volume number for quarter ending Sept 2024 still remains quite high, assuming 0 for the last month, almost 8x YoY.
There seems to be no correlation between Cosmos Bank volumes and quarterly revenues.
agree but they did make a statement about minor operational disruptions but overall guidance remains intact.
When is the company coming into main markets.
The revenue is going good, guidance is going well,
Just the valuation is concerning.
Hi Gaurav,
Good Point, but I am not able to reconcile few of the data points, so let’s explore further.
Evok was launched around Sep 2022 (Q223). You compared Q324 vs Q323 . But Payee PSP Nos. seems to have grown 183% YoY. (refer my table below). So, didn’t understand from where the 72% came from ?
Also, There is no point comparing the cosmos PSP data and total revenue of NPST because of the presence of other piece of business (TSP). We need to compare evok nos. vs Cosmos PSP Payee Nos to arrive at any meaningful correlation or lack of it. But evok revenue data is not readily available.
I have tried to stich together the data based on various sources, mainly calls/ NPCI and company presentation. So let’s explore that. The data is not clean and includes plenty of crude assumption. So feel free to get it clarified where it’s not clear. I wish the data was more beautiful and self explanatory. But for now, it’s not. But i hope it’s closer to truth.
Mgmt. is clear that all of Payee PSP Nos. not necessarily reflect the evok transaction volume. But it’s clear that evok transaction volume nos. form part of the Cosmos Payee PSP nos. %age is not clear.
Data present in Column B & C used to be provided by NPST in it’s initial 2 Inv Presentations till Q423. Then it was discontinued. However, the GTV (Col. C) was given out in last 2 calls as answers to questions from investors. Clearly it’s one of the most meaningful metric for Evok. Revenue contribution of evok is a %age of that GTV and rest all data is only an approximation to reach at that in absence of direct GTV nos.
Column D : evok revenue no. is NOT presented separately by Mgmt. But they keep mentioning the rough/range contribution from evok in almost every call. So, I have used to that to arrive at the evok revenue nos.
Column E: Is self explanatory, just the QoQ & YoY growth of evok revenue.
Column F: Taken straight from NCPI site. Let me know if you see any discrepancy there.
Column G: Self explanatory, Cosomos Payee PSP QoQ & YoY growth with some commentary to explain.
Few of my observations:
I think, market might be worried about the degrowth in cosmos Payee PSP nos. for last 2 months, but if the concerns are genuine OR there is some explanation which we aren’t aware of, I guess only time will tell. If there is an explanation and there is no concern on growth, then am ok to hold/buy at this price. However if there are concerns on growth, then just the fact that this Qtrs nos. won’t get impacted big way may not be sufficient reason to support current price. Any inputs ?
Good analysis Raj. All the numbers I have quoted are QoQ and not YoY. The 2nd table I have is summation from the 1st table, adding 3 months.
The larger point that I was trying to make (and I see you’re coming to the same conclusion) is that the market seems to assume that the drop in Cosmos Payee PSP numbers will have an equivalent impact on the NPST revenues and eventually the stock price, which I don’t think is going to be the case. It may be directionally right but definitely NOT in terms of quantum.
If we look at Annual evok revenue vs Payee PSP nos. trend for FY23 vs FY24. It seems evok revenues grew 4x while Payee PSP nos. grew 2.5x. This leverage in evok revenue growth can be attributed to 2 factors.
But, from this point onwards, how do we assume the quantum of fall in evok revenue will not mirror the fall in Payee PSP nos. ? Unless we want to assume that the rise in 1 & 2 will continue and offset any fall in no. of transactions.
I fear, am not crystal clear that I am coming to same conclusion as you. Because these are big assumption?
Okay, so let me try and explain what I am looking at. There are 3 things:
As can be seen from above, on QoQ basis, EVOK revenue growth is very similar to the growth of the total GTV. However, both EVOK revenue growth and GTV growth, seem to not have a similar correlation with the Cosmos Bank Payee PSP volume data. For eg, in latest quarter, Cosmos Payee PSP volume grew by 197%, but the total GTV grew by 43%. Now, how can that be? 1 reason I see is that it might not be 1-to-1 correlated. In fact, in Sept 2023, a 35% QoQ fall was seen in the Cosmos Payee PSP data, but EVOK revenues grew by 14%.
I am not trying to make any conclusions from a derived metric (like 0.27% and 0.47% like you have mentioned) and just sticking to the numbers that have been clearly stated by NPST or NPCI website.
Excellent work tabulating your argument @Gaurav_Didwania .
I’ll have to scour through the concalls to find the source but in one of them they did mention this.
The management said that the numbers reported for Cosmos includes transactions from other sources as well, not just NPST, so revenue from Evok and numbers of Cosmos may not be correlated 1 to 1.
Hi Gaurav,
Can you incorporate the numbers from Q123 please. cosmos nos. are not available for Q1-Q223 but gtv and evok data is available. I am suggesting to look at the annual trend of FY23 vs FY24 rather than QoQ, hoping that would give us a more smoother picture.
My concern here is not just the next Qtrs numbers. But rather to look little further and see if we are missing something on what the change in trend of cosmos nos. means for NPST investors. OR should we drop tracking the cosmos Payee PSP Nos. altogether saying that it’s not relevant snice the trend doesn’t match QoQ? Anyways, if its not n Top15 we are not going to get it’s data, like for this Sep.
We already know, evok revenue is per transaction basis (likely linked to transaction value). As retail investors, we want to track the transaction value monthly basis but it’s not available, hence we try to track its close proxy, evok transaction volume, but unfortunately that also is not available directly to us, hence we track it’s closest proxy superset i.e., cosmos payee PSP nos. reported by NPCI. I think we are all on same page till this point and this has been confirmed by Mgmt. also. We also know that evok volume and PSP nos. were closely linked to each for the 2 qtrs. of FY23, for which mgmt. revealed this data to us.
But we want to brush off the drastic fall in Cosmos Payee PSP nos. saying it doesn’t match with evok nos. on QoQ basis. That’s the point where i differ, because my concern is not on how this upcoming Qtr is going to be. It’s most likely going to be decent. But my point is, has the slightly longer term trend for evok changed ? from the scorching 2-3x growth of FY24 and Q125 to a more moderate one ?
Even if the above metric is a derived one, but doesn’t it look like an important one as it gives some sort of an explanation why evok revenue is higher to transaction volume trend ?
Agree it might be directionally right. From the numbers I am seeing, 2 things I am not sure of, how much of NPST EVOK Volume is from Cosmos Payee PSP; and how much of Cosmos Payee PSP volume from NPST EVOK.
Hopefully there are some answers. If they report a reasonable growth in overall NPST GTV now also, maybe I will stop tracking Cosmos Payee PSP data 
