Wow. Great in-depth study.
Well. I must say I am lucky in Pudumjee. I did some peer-to-peer studies in paper stocks. But what forced me to get interested in Pudumjee was their annual report. जमीन - आसमान का फरक when compared to the previous year annual report.
And the huge price-volume action gave me the confidence to take an initial stake in it.
Cheaply valued stocks making all-time highs should be looked at more carefully.
dr.vikas
Don’t know about the other 2, but Vasa as per me, can easily reach 5k mcap and perhaps 10k mcap in the coming years. ( Mind you predictions can be so wrong )
Hope you have already checked my starting post on Vasa Denticity.
I had taken initial exposure in it around 600. But once the Malabar India fund took a position in it, I jumped into it. It’s 7% of my stock portfolio.
Invested & Biased.
dr.vikas
Is anyone tracking a one global service provider? The company has been showing strong performance every quarter, with its business largely dependent on the healthcare sector, which has been performing well in recent years. Recently, foreign institutional investors (FIIs) have also bought some 8% shares . The only concern is the low promoter holding, which is due to a change in ownership a few years ago, current MD is very well qualified and experienced and could be the reason of turnaround, i took a small position at 130 level for tracking.
Now this is behavioural question especially on one of our major biases - sunk cost fallacy, you must have put in lot of effort, now that your anti thesis didn’t play out hypothetically if you had still cash built up what would you do ?? would enter again or look for other oppertunities
My few cents on this.
This is not a very bias to handle. I have already written one post on it. Please check it below
The sunk cost fallacy happens due to a few other biases. Namely Loss Aversion, Endowment Bias & Status Quo Bias.
As I have mentioned the solutions in that post and which I follow very strictly are - KEEP A STRICT STOP-LOSS (it’s up to you to decide the percentage) and NEVER AVERAGE IT DOWN. This means, that if you have substantial conviction in any idea, hold on to it, but NEVER average it down. Once you average it down, the above biases become much more prominent.
I have learnt this after making huge losses by averaging down in both Laurus Labs and Kopran.
dr.vikas
PLEASE post this on the Pudumjee paper forum.
That question got me thinking!!
I’ll try to answer this by stating that not just Pudumjee, I have had fair number of big misses in the last 7-8 years. I missed Dr Lal path lab (Was invested in '16) and given the number of new players coming in diagnosis, I presumed margin loss would be high and the stock won’t perform well. Then after a few years, Covid happened and it turned the fortunes of all the diagnosis companies.
I missed Tata motors, was again invested since 2016, with Jaguar numbers falling, indian cars not doing well, I thought it will make a comeback - and it did. But I had to sell it in 2022 to invest in better ideas. That stock rocked as soon as I left 
Then we have Solar industries, REC and D Link where I booked profits early - again because I thought the price is fair for the company and upside might be limited. I was wrong here as well. All of this looks gloomy but I had Peter Lynch beside me saying - “My biggest mistake was that I always sold stocks way too early!"
The reason of selling all these stocks are different but whichever metric you use, it all boils down to valuation in investor’s head - and even if you look at “fair” or “rich” valued stocks, you will see them rising to even higher numbers, and one has to make peace with missed opportunities like these. I can’t be lucky enough to sell at the highest point.
There are only couple of stocks to which I could go back and buy at higher cost, but that’s just because I got new information. I am willing to study Pudumjee again without the biases I had for the paper industry. (But I have no free cash left)
Well I am waiting for your analysis. 
I am tracking the firm; though there is nothing much to track here.
I know that the quality of the clothes they sell is excellent.They have a good brand name in the markets they serve; known for quality dresses for babies
Various random articles estimate the revenue to be close to 120 crores.There are lot of retail stores opened but not sure how profitable they are.
The company has now a market cap less than its revenue if we can believe the revenue figures that get reported.
Popees looks good. But I am a bit concerned on the dilution aspects. The true market cap is higher after the preference shares that should take their stake to 40% plus. I know for a fact that they are aiming for more capital through preference shares and so minorities will definitely get diluted. Question is how much and this does not bode well with me.
I remembered this Pete Lynch quote - “You don’t have to “kiss all the girls.” I’ve missed my share of ten baggers, and it hasn’t kept me from beating the market.”
As our doctor said one should definitely read pudumjee latest annual report, if one would like to build thesis almost all of the questions that can be answered in that, summarising it won’t be do any justice,
For example they have stated short, but concise crisp case study on how their unique product are placed in the market
There is new facility which is under proposal in mahad, waiting for clearance ( although we don’t know the timeline it may take years too not much information I could find), which doubles actually more than doubles the current capacity, this is a cash rich company with financial discipline and management is prudent.
Companies profit are driven by operational efficiencies and innovation, however there is a limit to what they can only achieve with above, but this shows the capability of the management.
If the speciality products ( incremental 3 million Ton is gonna be added in few years) demand has increased, due to customer opting for better lifestyle
This company should do well
This is a business where the industry is not buoyant, however they are creating their own niche and market through sheet innovation and value proposition for their customer,
If they can create seperate market ( ex: Coco cola bottles made by paper, ) this will force other companies to opt for the same.
The management is solid, industry is not buoyant, but the niche segment could be sunrising industry
Anti thesis
On the flip side, the H2 won’t be as good as H1 due to high base last year and raw material pressure, (which was also mentioned in annual report)
And another monitorable is getting clearance for their mahad plant, if they do that, it will launch them in another orbit
However, i have no idea, how much multiple will the market give in future, it may derate also,
Requesting @IamAnshul to comment on the industry outlook, since he had already have clear idea about the paper industry in general
Disclaimer: tracking want to invest in lower levels(120) waiting for H2 results and market wide correction to add
Their capacity utilisation reached 89%, so even achieving 10% volume growth is not probable, so it’s constrained by it’s manufacturing capacity this year profitability may be driven by operational efficiencies and product mix, but personally i don’t see that happening this year, so i guess, once should start accumulating after they get clearance for the new plant or after the H2 results declared( assuming there will be share price drawdown might happen)
Feel free to comment on my speculation, views are welcomed.
I think it’s impossible to talk about potential 5-baggers or 100-baggers when a long-term position is initiated.
My view is as follows - I buy a promising growth stock that can deliver multi-fold returns. However, I come back to the business and industry developments on a quarterly/annual basis. If the story is developing well, I continue to hold. Irrespective of the fact that it’s already a 5-bagger or 10-bagger. The targets can be continiously revised.
Please share all your views on the Innovassynth Investment VP thread
Thanks in advance
dr.vikas
Here is the new VP page on Innovassynth Investment
We can follow this thread for regular updates
dr.vikas
Is it listed. Or is it still a private company.
Good Strategy, I also tried few times and never regretted. I always keep a 20% allocation to such stocks
Good strategy! Yes as a retail investor besides biases we have to avoid FOMO and so greed to focus on realistic gains
