No 100 - Baggers / 10- Baggers, I am just searching for 5 Baggers

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We retail investors always dream about that one 100-bagger जो अपनी लाइफ बना दे.

Peter Lynch: The person who turns over the most rocks wins the game. So we search for that ONE frantically all over the place—maybe in the news, YouTube / Twitter, or other social media platforms.

Many books have been written, mainly the 100-bagger by Christopher Mayers and 100 to 1 by Thomas Phleps.

Then we have the Indian 100 bagger study by Motilal Oswal.

https://www.motilaloswal.com/site/rreports/635542588369519988.pdf

But we need some fact-checking. This study has a considerable survivorship bias. Hundreds of companies may have gone bust during the same timeframe. The chances of finding the 100-bagger are significantly less, and even if we find one, do we have the patience to hold onto it?

LIMITED TIME—Most retail investors have some or other full-time job. They invest whenever the time is available. So, we always have LIMITED TIME compared to full-time investors/institutions. The less time, the fewer stocks one can search for.

LIMITED MENTAL BANDWIDTH—Like time, our mental bandwidth allocated to company research is limited. We have full-time jobs and families or social commitments to take care of. This leaves fewer cognitive resources to think about the multi-baggers.

LIMITED KNOWLEDGE / SCUTTLEBUTT—Most micro-caps don’t hold regular conference calls or provide quarterly investor presentations. So, it’s tough to follow the business only based on information from its website, annual report, or credit ratings (which are not regular). We don’t have time for management interviews/plant visits, etc.

So what to do?!

The Key to Happiness is Low Expectations - Charlie Munger

So, I focus only on the potential 5 baggers and do not search for 10 /100 baggers. And anyway, the 5-bagger can become, say, a 10-bagger or more.

I also avoid investing for just say 20/30% gains even for short term. Same way, I avoid any special situation, mergers / spin-offs unless and until it has 5-bagger potential.

I think only in terms of market cap. Can this 1k mcap company become a 5k mcap company, or can 5k go to 25k?

Once again, I will focus more on market caps between 1k and 5k. Why not consider a 10k market cap? Because moving from 5k to 25k is much easier than progressing from 10k to 50k.

And why not below the 1k mcap? Here again, the information available to us retail investors is very scarce. So better avoid micro-caps below 1k mcap.

This method is better suited for me as a retail investor as I have limited time, mental bandwidth, and knowledge.

These are my personal views. Please share your opinions on this.

dr.vikas

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My Journey:
From just few months before I was happy investing in IPO’s from 10 accounts and getting an IPO and enjoying listing Gains. But Soon I realized it’s not the way. And I do work in a company so no time for trading as well. So the only and best option is to research companies and find companies which can grow in long term(> 2-3 yrs).

@vikasbargale I see me in this post. Asking people to share some suggestions which they have high conviction in and provides an oppurtunity for retail inv like us for more research.

some companies I have researched and closely tracking,please share your views :

1)Pricol lmtd
2)Frog cellstat
3)Beta drugs
4)Ceinsys tech
5)Techno engineering.

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I remember the 100 baggers thread, so I got confused with this thread. I thought the doctor who opened that thread opened this one too, and that he does not want to look at 100 baggers now, and looking at 5 baggers. And I was wrong. They are different doctors @Pragnesh @vikasbargale. Finance cannot get any more personal than this.

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Thanks sainath.
A few less-known stocks where I am invested and biased are

  • Vasa Denticity ( I have already made a post on it on valuepickr)
  • Pudumjee papers ( Check their latest AR to know why they are speciality papers)
  • Innovassynth Investments ( Unique reverse merger. Check Moneycontrol Message Board)

Please study on your own.

dr.vikas

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Ugro Capital is a NBFC specialising in MSME financing.
Thesis for investment: They are a fast growing company in an area with a large addressable market. They have a tech-based approach to lending, developing their own assessment of potential customers’ ability as well as intent to pay using GST, cash flow and bureau data. They also partner with banks to co-lend. Due to upfront investment in infrastructure and technology, they have ambitious plans to scale up their AUM, and if executed well, there is a lot of scope for operating leverage to kick in and improve ROA and ROE significantly. Currently they are available at just above book value. But if the above scenario plays out, there is scope for rerating.
Risks: Economic slowdown as indicated by GDP data could affect the cash flows of their customers, leading to stress on their assets. Also, they are relatively new, so their loan book isn’t seasoned. Whether their underwriting is as robust as they claim remains to be seen.

You can check out the thread on them on this forum. It’s very informative.

Disclosure: Invested, have added more in the recent correction

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Hi,

Can you please share the brief of your investment thesis for Innovassynth and also the risks?

Thank

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Innovasynth investment 100% allocation started accumulating in 2022 and never stopped till 2024 august - current valuation should be 450 Crore conservatively

  • Plans to list on NSE

  • Hardik is headstrong to get it to PAT if 50 cr by next 2 years .

  • Rahejas are focused on the companies growth and CDMO opportunities.

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It’s a reverse merger - the new company wil have 12.5 % stake held by Utpal Seth ( right hand of Rakesh sir ) . Rahejas will hold 72% . Promoters are master when it comes to turning around companies and believe in delivering more then they say publicly

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Biosecure act is going to benefit this big time

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I am pretty bullish on Websol Energy to be 3 to 8x in next 1.5 years.

What they do - manufacture Solar cells with current capacity of 600 MW and Solar module capacity of 600 MW. Solar cell line was partially operationalized in Q4’24. Module line was operationalized in Q2’25, no revenues have been booked in Q2 for modules.

Net Profit:
Q2’24 = -55 Cr
Q3’24 = -59 Cr
Q1’25 = 23 Cr
Q2’25 = 42 Cr

they are doing pretty well in DCR cell sales. With current Cell & Module pricing, they are anticipated to have net profit of 55Cr+ per quarter.

So 600 MW cell + module line with 90%+ utilization is expected to give an yearly profit of 200-240 Cr.

Current Market cap = 5600 Cr.

So taking lower end of profits, Websol is currently trading at 1 year future PE of 28.
Waaree Energy & Premier Energy are its competitors. Waaree & Premier are trading at 80 & 240 PE respectively.

So Websol can easily trade at a PE greater than 80 in next 2-3 Quarters.

Icing on the cake : They are working to add 1 more line of 600 MW of Solar cell to be operational by Q1 26. Considering raw material price & final price of cells remaining constant, we can see ~100 cr worth of profits every quarter, which will be 400 Cr of profit annually,
Assuming PE for Solar industry cools down a bit, say comes to 70, we are looking at a market cap of 28000 cr, which will be 5X’er for sure.

They have plans to 2x the capacity of Solar cells from 1.2x to 2.4x in FY 26. They have talked about plans for backward integration for wafer and Inglot manufacturing, but I think they have not given a timeline for this.

I have taken more optimistic PE for Websol, we have example of Premier Energy which is currently trading at 240 PE. Considering Websol has good expansion plans, market may reward Websol with PE comparitive to Premier Energy for next 6 to 18 months.

Disclaimer. Have been aggregating Websol since 1025, even bought some quantity today. As of now Websol is 26% of my direct equity portfolio. I intend to take it to 33% if it falls to 1150 or so. Have high conviction, so views would definitely be biased.

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Look at chinese Solar companies PE, stock performance, capacities and current market capitalization. Solar cell is a commodity and long term PE is 10. Make sure you know where u are in current cycle else blows will be heavier than expected.

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Agree 100% with your view, a close eye required on government policies.
What’s in favour of Indian cell manufacturers:

  1. Currently India cell manufacturing capacity is less than 20 GW per year, we need about 80 GW of cells every year. So module manufacturers are importing from China.
  2. US doesnt supports import from China for cells. They have put on import duty on Chinese originating cells. Plus today they have put in New Tariff’s on few companies from 4 South East Asian countries which are chinese companies in disguise and operating from Malaysia, Vietnam etc and exporting to US markets at much much cheaper pricing. (read here - US Imposes New Tariffs On Solar Modules From Southeast Asia )
  3. Chinese Solar cell manufacturers are trading at a PE of 10 or so because they have huge capacities, and they are not able to utilize these.
  4. Indian Government is binging ALMM policy where only Indian manufactured cells will get benefit of Indian Government policies (subsidies etc). This will be implemented in April 2026. As Indian Government is bringing ALMM policy in April 2026, So I think it would be fair to assume, Indian Government’s policies for Solar cell manufacturing will be manufacturer friendly atleast untill 2027. (Catch - Central government should not change until this)

That’s my view, would love to hear your views on what can go wrong in next 1 -2 years for Solar cell manufacturers which I may have missed.

One risk that I see for Solar cell manufacturers is over capacity by 2027 if export market for them shrinks for any reason.

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@vikasbargale can u share info abt Pudumjee papers as well?
Stock has been exploding off late

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Anyone tracking Popees Baby care