Nithin's Portfolio

Portfolio Update : Entered into HFCL

HFCL is one name that has been badly taken the back seat.

Leading manufacture of Optical fiber : a telecom equipment manufacturer and systems integration company, is planning to ramp up optical fibre cable (OFC) production, including Fibre-To-The-Home (FTTH) cable, by 30 per cent by 6 months and the company expects good demand for its products for the next five years.

The firm, which started production of WiFi products in this financial year, had already shipped nearly 1 lakh pieces. The company is also developing Software Defined Radio and High capacity radio relays for Defence.

HFCL had also won contracts to install telecom systems for Mauritius and Dhaka metro rail projects.

Order book
As of December 31, HFCL’s order book stood at ₹7,313 crore to be executed over the next 1.5 years.

Pledge : 47.3%
Reliance also holds 3.78% investment

Customers :

  • This might benefit due to tariffs on china imports and if India stops exports.

Telecom equipment from China to face curbs as Cabinet approves buying only from ‘trusted source’ | India News,The Indian Express.
Himachal Futuristic communication - #55 by HIMSHAH

3 Likes
Stock Price Current Price Allocation
Pokarna 137 203 20.00%
Cipla 648 828 20.00%
Laurus Labs 281 373 10.00%
Cadila 410 486 10.00%
Biocon 196 451 10.00%
Rain 102 138 10.00%
Alkem 2724 3073 5.00%
Kei 331 505 4.00%
Oriental Aromatics 472 662 4.00%
Ester Industries 125 120 4.00%
HFCL 33.15 32 3.00%
TOTAL 100.00%
1 Like

Exited Kei industries : Shifted more to Ester industries…

Trimmed Cipla : Am not sure some of the top people want to dispose such a big chunk : https://www.bseindia.com/stock-share-price/cipla-ltd/CIPLA/500087/disclosures-insider-trading-2015/

Interested stories : MSTC - Mainly involved in scrappage of cars for making ways for EV

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HFCL :slight_smile:

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Ganesh Ecosphere :

Ganesh Ecosphere recycles PET into “RPSF” (Recycled Polyester Staple Fibre) that finds application in clothing, technical textile,fibrefill, automotive etc.

Ganesha Ecosphere Ltd. entered into business in 1987. Over the Years, the Company has emerged as one of the leading PET- recycled RPSF manufacturers in India.

Being into sustainable business of PET bottle Recycling, Ganesh Ecosphere aims to collect maximum PET waste through our 20+ collection centres across India and minimize its environmental impact by turning it into resource.

Plants :
Kanpur (Uttar Pradesh)
Rudrapur (Uttarakhand)
Bilaspur (Uttar Pradesh)

Ganesha has a cumulative capacity of 97800 Tonnes per annum(87,600 TPA of RPSF and 7200 TPA of RPSY and 3000 TPA of Dyed and Texturised/ Twisted Filament Yarn) of RPSF and yarn.

End product are used as T-Shirts, body warmers etc.,
Functional textiles non-woven air filter fabric, geo textiles, carpets, car upholstery
Fillings for pillows, duvets, toys


Manufacturing Process Chart :



Video :

Stats :

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Financials


Investor Presentation : https://ganeshaecosphere.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/Investor-Presentation-December%202020.pdf

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Disc : Invested

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Am invested in glenmark and lupin. Whichever respiratory drug i search cipla is always there.
Respiratory is a large market size with relatively fewer competition.

Hi Nithin,

Are you still invested in Ester? Do you feel there is still juice left after almost 4x returns from jan prices

Its been quite long that I have not posted any updates in my Portfolio

Its been a tough past 2 year to weather the storm - but somehow survived the market with having almost no returns.

The main mistake that I did

  • Believing the story : LAURUS LABS invested around 480 (prior bonus) made a good run uphill to 1300 but had not booked profits and management commentary of 1 billion dollars made me all ears - nothing to just make loss eventually burning the profit and capital too.

What’s the most interesting aspect it that - it was not just me, many retailers that I spoke off had no idea about the cost aspects of the company. The company had projected to the moon but the rocket fuel was leaking somewhere in the engine room.

  • Exited with loss

*** Recency bias** : Believing in the story that’s coming ahead in next year or six quarters - made me blinded by two flaps on the side of the eye
PRAJ : Still holding on to stock for past 2 year with 40%

  • Am still not mature to understand the cycles of the sectoral returns, however each experience of seeing the unseen is everyone’s cup of learning something new : but I wanna do learn quickly

  • Recently I am following a approach of CORE Portfolio & SECTORAL turns Portfolio.


SECTORAL Portfolio : Identify sectoral triggers and ride on the leaders/winners.


CORE Portfolio : Long Term only when there clear triggers based on management commentary on concall or on numbers.


CORE :


Instrument Price Current Price Returns Allocation
NEULANDLAB 2100.01 3445.65 64% 29%
SBCL 146.02 697.15 377% 15%
SYNGENE 669.5 807.05 21% 14%
PRAJIND 296.41 415.9 40% 9%
SYRMA 346.72 473 36% 7%
ORCHIDPHAR 550.82 588.1 7% 6%
NEWGEN 499.57 825.75 65% 6%
AXISCADES 440.73 482 9% 5%
HBLPOWER 121 176.6 46% 3%
KOPRAN 121.33 187.75 55% 3%
E2E-BE 274 270.75 -1% 2%

NEULAND : Is into API | CMS | SPECIALITY API - recently the main trigger for me was the CMS business wherein they have 4 blockbuster molecule and one is live.

SBCL : Holding this gem for more than 2.5 years thanks to Ayush Mittal this fell onto my radar, the company makes shunts and its quite widely used in all electrical appliances, EV, Power Meter and much more - the company is expected to complete the capex by 24 and will continue to work over 2-3 shifts - with new capex coming live the company can clock in 1600 crores revenue at full capacity

SYNGENE : CRO | CRAMS and now a CDMO company with 360 degree science - recent trigger was Zoetis contract and new acquisition of Stelis bio plant - the company was expecting development in next 2-3 years however due to STELIS acquisition the time has turned short and recent development were Mangalore API plant US FDA approval, Bangalore Biotech plant US FDA. Next items - The stelis plant needs to go regulatory, client approvals, with talent hiring and then the commercial production of CDMO begins however the Mangalore API plant will be ready to supply small molecule and they will continue to source out more clients/contracts - the biggest hurdle is development and phase approval of molecule - neither less the company will make recurring revenue due to CRO/CRAMS

PRAJ : Next gen technology of (bio mobility) : sustainable fuels for aviation, bio diesel, cbg gas, (bio prism) - renewable chemicals, praj hi purity : biotech companies, semi conductor industries, brewers & beverages, with order book of 3000+ crores - next set of developments - setting up indian oil cbg stations in differnent locations for 5 stations - end to end implementation and further there are about 30 stations that government is planning to do - praj needs to bid, recent order win with indian oil for sustainable fuel, they have orders from USA as well for SAF.

SYRMA. : EMS company they plan to forward integrate in BOX BUILD PRODUCT where as they already manufacturing PCBA which goes into it. BOX BUILD is low margin(just RM pass),they may not be interested(depending on application) Focus is on PCBA and HIGH MARGIN RFIDs.
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They catered to 200+ customers, out of which 16 customers have been associated for 10+ years, contributing 262.8 cr. of FY22 revenues. Co’s clients include TVS Motor Co Ltd, A. O. Smith India Water Products Pvt. Ltd, Robert Bosch Engineering & Business Solution Pvt Ltd, Eureka Forbes Ltd Limited, CyanConnode Ltd, Atomberg Technologies Pvt Ltd, Hindustan Unilever Ltd, Total Power Europe B.V. Co’s products are sold in 25+ countries, including USA, Germany, Austria & the UK. In FY22, exports contributed 55% of the revenue.

Syrma Capacity & utilisation% FY22 - Achieved 80-85% utilisation

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Asset Turnover ratio: measures the efficiency with which a company uses its assets to produce sales

For the period ending FY22
Kaynes 4.79x
Syrma 4.43x

Per Q3 FY23 Concall Kaynes Syrma
Order Book Rs. 2500 cr Rs. 2100 cr.
Net Working Capital Days 135 Days 83 Days
EBITDA margins 14.7% 10%
ODM % (IP/designing is developed in-house) 5% 11%
Box Build % Generally high margins but depends on type & segment 24% 15%
Exports % Exports are higher margin 20% 26% (34% earlier)
Top Verticals Automotive (39%) Industrial (44%)
Industrial (26%) Consumer (24%)
Railways (13.5%) Automotive (15%)
Capex Rs. 250 cr. Rs. 200-250 Cr.
PLI 1. Telecom 1. Telecom
2. Air conditioning & 2. Air conditioning &
white goods white goods

EMS market is set to grow at +30% CAGR for at least next 5 years from ₹1,469Bn to 6,000Bn by FY27.

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ORCHIDPHAR : Leader in producing ANTIBIOTICS especially cephalosporins acquired in by Dhanuka Agritech - the promoters of Dhanuka agritech
The Co has a multi-therapeutic presence. Product portfolio constitute of API - Cephalosporins - Orals, Cephalosporins - Injectables, Veterinary Products & Non-Antibiotics
Clientele:
Clientele includes Sanofi, Sun Pharma, Pfizer, Mylan etc. Top 10 clients of Orchid contribute to 57% of the total revenues geographically.
Capex :
It has announced a capex of 50 crores for establishing a manufacturing facility of the Company at Alathur (Kerala).

Orchid Pharma signed a technology agreement with an international biotech company having expertise in fermentation technology to set up the 7-ACA plant, a step towards backward integration

The NCE product Enmetazobactum is expected to take away market share from Piperacilin Tazobactum, Ceftriaxone, and Carbapenems.

Enjoys much less competition in the US for injectables and Cephalosporins, and it is gaining traction.
Ceftazidime Avibactam : It’s a very complex product, number and is a lifesaving drug. When all of the bacteria have resistance, this only works. Orchid is in
a leadership position in Ceftazidime Avibactam. In the Indian market they have already launched and they are planning now to file for the ANDA in the US market also. hoping to be leader in the US as well.

Enmetazobactum : To be launched in EUROPE this year.

NEWGEN : Marked as a NICHE Player in the GARTNER MAGIC QUADRANT
• Newgen Software has a direct sales strategy for Tier 2 and Tier 3 banks and a GSI strategy for Tier 1 accounts and larger accounts in the US.
The company is looking to localize in UAE and Saudi and is not impacted by corporate tax as it is in a tax-free zone
Strong growth in emerging markets, with India and Middle East leading the way.
Aspires to reach $500 million in the next 5-7 years, with strategies including building a strong ecosystem with GSI and expanding into mature markets.
Newgen announced partnership with GSI’s to SAAS Revenues
GSI coming in the SAAS revenue should help in shooting up the margins

1.Implementation services will be done by GSI(Low Margin)
2.Product based SAAS Revenue will accrue to Newgen(High Margin)

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AXISCADES : Recent acquisition of GERMAN automobile company (Add Solution GMBH) will help in entering into GERMANY will help them deliver their product solutions in GERMANY
DEFENSE : They will soon starting production of DRONES, ANTI DRONES for defense

HBL POWER Anti Collision systems, energy storage batteries etc - proxy to railways

KOPRAN : Antibiotics, Nitroxoline, Carbapenems


SECTORAL PORTFOLIO


INVESTED:

NATCO - Majorly for PARA IV opportunities
CIPLA - Recently clocked in good revenues especially from USA
INOX WIND - Sectoral trigger - couldn’t find any other best - than this because of merger
SW SOLAR - Sectoral solar wind power triggers
PRICOL - Should do well based on lot of management commentaries across auto - lastly it was CV vehicles who did well - from STERLING TOOLS management heard that 2 wheeler is coming with growth starting in this or next
SJS : Decent result + acquisition
PFC : Couple of twitter folks that i follow
GUFIC BIO : Gufic BioSciences Ltd - #72 by nithin_Shenoy


TRACKING:


DREAMFOLKS : June quarter is the best quarter for them
BRAND CONCEPTS : New royalty of united colors of Benetton + new stores opening + management guidance of 30% cagr with June result to be best - lets wait and watch
TEGA : Dyna Prime will be huge Opportunity in an OLIGOPOLISTIC Market
How big is Dynaprime Market ?.
MS : $900 Mn
Tega is gaining MARKET SHARE & Opened a NEW MARKET(Other than Rubber& PM Market)
CSB BANK : Nothing special has good set of ratios + gold returns but only limited for Kerala however banks as a whole doing well
RBL BANK : Same banks doing well

Recent Exit :
LAURUS LABS : Was Biased dont know if this exit is the right one at this juncture as the next quarter Chava has mentioned its bound to be good, which is true given the correct very low numbers - however giving the market time for correction, dont know if that happens too or not as am not good a technical - any suggestions welcome

@Worldlywiseinvestors, @vikas_sinha, @Akshada_Deo, @hitesh2710 : please do share your thoughts :slight_smile: open to constructive criticism

5 Likes

Hi Nithin. You might think of adding more to Banking/NBFC sector. Small finance banks are doing well after coming out of covid. Their customers are unique, credit demand is very strong from Tier 2 and below markets, loan books are diversified, Deposits are attractive due to ROI,NPA’s are very low, 25% CAGR looks possible for couple of years atleast, even cheap at P/B level.

Ujjivan/Equitas look better than CSB which is highly dependent on gold loan. IDFC is better than RBL. You can read the separate posts on vp forum on these banks. All the best!

Disclosure: Invested in Ujjivan/Equitas/IDFC

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@nithin_Shenoy

Your current portfolio consists of several big winners. Case in point being Neuland, SBCL, etc.

Laurus probably was one of the most discussed stocks on VP . And one of the biggest and quickest winners for a lot of boarders. About the miss on your front, I think the thing you need to take to heart is that a great company may not necessarily always be a great investment. Laurus in 2020 was a great investment as it was fairly valued as compared to the tailwinds it was facing. And once all the positives were reflected in the price, upsides were limited. And at such a price even a small dose of bad news is enough to change the trend.

A simple exercise we as investors need to carry out in our investments. We need to put up our expected earnings for next couple of years (based on our understanding of the business) and see if those too are priced in at current prices. If that’s the case, its better to atleast lighten up if not sell fully. When prices go up the narrative surrounding the company is so strong, and often management commentary is equally strong. ( Many a times managements are also carried away by price appreciation, they too are human. )

The other small exercise one can do is to learn basics of stage analysis. Its not as difficult as it sounds. When stocks break down from range at top, its easy to see and one can act accordingly.

The current portfolio looks to be pharma heavy. Its okay for now as pharma is seeing some resurgence and its reflected in prices of good pharma companies which are showing good growth. More than 50% of your allocation is to pharma sector. At some point , you will have to take a call on sectoral allocation. Rest seems okay. Best wishes.

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Hello @Sudhanshu_Shekhar

Thank you for your kind reply.

Buying EQUITAS and UJJIVAN - I don’t think its the right opportunity now as per i calculated lastly the P/B value was above 1.5 level - I just can’t find my excel workout sheet because screener number for P/B is not exactly right. Anything below 1.5 - 1.2 would be a better buy. So i have not looked at it.

@nithin_Shenoy Might be you are looking at trailing P/BV. you should look at FY 24 P/BV. Further, since both banks have established business models now and are projecting growth of 25% CAGR. I dont think that 1.5 should be the right parameter. Analysts are assigning 3 P/BV to microfinance companies on FY 25 P/BV although I am still conservatively considering FY 24 P/BV. SFBs are still relatively cheap less than 2 times P/BV.

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Hi @nithin_Shenoy Really enjoyed reading your post. The most impressive part for me is allocation. I will be grateful to understand your approach for allocation. Most investors, including me, are not as good at it. Your portfolio is a reflection of superb allocation strategy. Thanks!

We have some names in common, I too sold laurus slowly, there is no point marrying a stock when lots of other opportunities exist. Praj I dumped in one go, ethanol economics is very complicated as Globus also shows, and current rice related issues too.

Good you caught neuland at a good time! Enjoying the ride here too in shivalik bimetal, thanks again to Ayush! I have stopped tracking pharmacy companies, think got bored, maybe the market also. Gave up on kopran slowly too.

Syrma is also a good catch, newgen too. Cannot comment on others as not interested enough to be tracking them. Did buy banking stocks when they dipped below corona lows about a year ago, will hold as the party is just warming up.

Good sectoral strategy, that much I can say in addition to wishing you well given your self study and focus on investment!

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@manoopatil : We are all learning and part of learning. I always like to test and try all structures that works the best.

What works for me - may not work for you.

These are my learning

FOMO : Every individual has it - sometimes we even wonder

  • Is my Portfolio on the right track to growth?
  • Why isn’t my portfolio going anywhere while my watchlist are having party
  • What happens if the company cannot execute and i missed the bus?
  • What should i do during times of uncertainty?
  • What if i selected the wrong sector and believed it to be the holy grain?

In order to deal the FOMO I have a sectoral portfolio to play the cycles and learn from it.

  • This give me mental stability to learn new things, understand market better and grow.

On contrary I have my CORE PF which is long term to support if something goes wrong

Am alone and I don’t have a research team - I work during weekdays and only during weekend I get some time to see the market

Mr Market is superior and super efficient in terms of how to re-rate and how to punish - If you are on the wrong side of the shore then you will learn your lesson but in BULL Market the tides will push all things.

CORE PF

Firstly : Ideas are something that you cannot get it from thin air - you need a team or someone to help you out with it.

I sense ideas from News, People whom I follow, YouTube, forum, twitter etc.

First : Once you have ideas based on sectors : I See what are the constituents of that sector and industry growth size for these sectors

In my example it’s pharma because these sectors have not gone anywhere since past 5+ years
IT has done phenomenal well and I don’t like them except for the SAAS companies who have edge over their product example Emudhra, Rate Gain, Newgen

Second : Check for stocks relevant to these sectors with the purpose of differentiation, disruption, moat, cost advantage, leadership etc. for me its

  • Pharma : contract manufacturing, new generation molecule, low cost manufacture with process innovation and green chemistry, PLI beneficiary, only maker in India, most of the pharma are entering into agri, animal, nutraceutical , biotechnology these are also one has to lookout.
  • IT : SAAS
  • Defense : Drone / Anti Drone, Radars, Sonars.
  • Railway : Wagons, Suspension, Breaks, Anti collision
  • Auto : Graphic designing, auto ancillary, digital meter, led, solar roof, suspension
  • Chemicals/Specialty chemicals : Mainly Fluorine chemistry, Aromatics much more

Note : when I pick advantage among these - I choose stock that fits the relevance example : suspension no matter what changes either its EV/HYDROGEN/CBG/CNG or whatever suspension is MUST.

Third : I see who are the competitors & valuation : if my company is having growth
which is at reasonable valuation - I pick them, I don’t wait for leaders

Fourth Invest and track them for long, for some stocks here like PRAJ, SBCL, LAURUS (Exited) - I have waited for 3 years.

I don’t know all these can go right or wrong but least thing is that there are no disruption for time being, each has own advantages

SECTORAL PF

Here is what I do :

First Understand from the experts about MACRO & MICRO situations example : Alpha Moguls: Kenneth Andrade’s Mantra For Alpha Creation | BQ Prime - YouTube

I follow Kenneth Andrade and hear his commentary every time - that gives me sense of what’s moving and what’s not.

Second I list them down :As per the interview for any economy to move there should be a domestic growth market + export growth market (service sector)

  • He also mentioned that commodity is the base for everything and he would place bets on commodities where the price is attractive but you need to be careful about cycles and exit strategy is the must
  • He did talk about B2C and he told due to inflation he would refrain B2C companies but B2B, B2G looks very good.
  • He mentioned Pharma also
  • Lastly he did talk about industrial goods/capital good and told the valuation is expensive.

Third :

  • Go through the Forum, YouTube, Twitter and collect ideas based on the above framework there is no shame here if you are trying to learn something from someone - learning from others helps in cutting your bias & ego - the only shame is when you don’t do anything.
  • Get to know about the company, business and growth - what I see here is the growth guidance from the company, any Capex, Export, Market share, Disruption, Niche/MOAT, specialty, Gross Profit> 40% or Margins > 20% that they can achieve
  • Listen to the concall either daily, or weekend and make notes about headwinds, tailwinds, triggers etc.

Fourth

  • I use the screener, forum, chartlink to find out 52 week breakout/stage 2 analysis to track the stocks that i prepared - now preparation is the key here - so if you knew the triggers are here - Mr Market will show action in price action + Volume
  • I don’t go in one go in SECTOR PF whereas in CORE PF - I place chips in one go.
  • And if my SECTORAL stocks do well i shift them to my CORE PF

That’s all I do

Read book by the name of CAPITAL RETURNS by Edward Chancellor

7 Likes

Thanks @Sudhanshu_Shekhar : will have a look, recent post that FINO payments banks are entering in SFB - how do you rate this, and how easy it is to scale up from payments to SFB?

Hi. It is going to be a tough journey for any payments bank to grow quickly in lending as strong lending franchise is built on experience. Further, Fino wants to have a low lending base only and wants to focus more on fee income as per latest Investor ppt.

Equitas/Ujjivan have reached here today after more than 15 years of micro finance experience. If you compare these banks to with Suryodaya/utkarsh the later are not such stable business. So, it will take decent time for payment aggregators to make mark in lending as lending models take time to build.

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Thanks Nitin for the detailed response! Very helpful Indeed! Just one specific thing if you can please shade some light on…How do you go about high allocation to the tune of over 25% to one stock. How do you build that conviction in that one or first 5 ideas?

It depends on ones conviction and risk appetite - you have to weigh risk vs probability of success - If success is in my favor then I go all chips in… Now this is not a recommendation or suggestion - it depend on each mental attitude, risk appetite, dealing with failures.

Neuland has 3 divisions GDS, CMS & PEPTIDES : Contract Manufacturing Service (cms) mainly this is what gave me confidence is on certainty of income

What does this mean? - CMS division as per the last 2 quarterly concall the management had given guidance that their CMS division is going into commercialization (live).