Natco Pharma: Focusing On Complex Products

e3cb1134-e848-4b4b-9100-f68364b71f6b.pdf (651.7 KB)
The plaintiffs voluntarily dismissed Breckenridge Pharmaceutical Inc. and Natco Pharma Limited from the case. All claims against the Company in the litigation have now been dismissed in the antitrust lawsuit in US.
Job well done!

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@Rocky_Chow did you get a clarification from Natco management on discrepancy between Q1 and Q2 presenation on Para IV filings and approvals so far?

I got a clarification to the effect that the presentations were a bit dated to certain information and that efforts were being made to give more insightful and in-depth info on the business and the company from Q2 onwards, for example a page on the r&d section of the company… A new investor relations executive has been appointed and so on and so forth…

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Is anyone closely tracking this counter? With expected weak Q3 behind us and revenue bookings of Revlimid expected in Q1 and Q2, current valuations look very attractive.

Any major overhang that anyone is aware of for it to trade at such tempting valuations?

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Export Data is weak for Natco. Volume is down by 43% and value is down by 44% YOY.

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this is along expected lines…management had indicated of a weaker Q3 in Q2 con call

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I hope this is already factored in the CMP. It’s trading below its mean valuations on both price-to-sales and PE ratios.
Other views/opinions are welcome.

Just a cent: In my opinion, we will get better price if one waits for quarterly results. This will clear all the uncertainty.
Disclosure: Not invested. Keeping an eye.

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Latest investment by Natco

Views are welcome
dr.vikas

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according to the export data shared by mohit, natco pharma has export value of 1710 mn in Q3FY23 and 1390mn in Q2FY24. however, according the NATCO pharma PPT concall presentation, its 3337mn IN Q3FY23 and 7923mn in Q2FY24. can any one verify and update…

cell and gene therapy solutions sound very interesting. however, the results may or may not be interesting. any thoughts on NATCO pharma investment in EYWA pharma Singapore?

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Conference Call summary as below from screener.

In call one of the participant asked management why market is massively undervaluing company. :smiley:

Financial Performance:

  • Revenue milestone achieved: INR3,000 crores of revenue and INR1,000 crores of PAT year-to-date
  • Q3 FY '24 results: Consolidated total revenue of INR795.6 crores, 55% growth; Net profit of INR212.7 crores, 3.5x growth
  • Guidance for FY '24: Expecting to surpass INR1,200 crores PAT and sales close to INR4,000 crores

Business Segments:

  • Segmental split for Q3: API - INR46.3 crores, Formulation domestics - INR99.4 crores, Formulation exports - INR605.6 crores, Crop health - INR14.1 crores
  • AgChem business performance impacted by weather patterns, expecting growth in international markets
  • U.S. market performance: Copaxone, Everolimus, Lanthanum, Lapatinib performing well, focus on complex generics
  • Domestic formulation business: Oncology driving growth, looking to expand portfolio

Strategic Initiatives:

  • Update on Kothur facility FDA classification awaited, risk mitigation strategy implemented
  • M&A strategy: Looking for a large acquisition in Emerging Markets, strong financial position with net cash at INR1,800 crores
  • RoW subsidiaries: Brazil and Canada performing well, expanding to Colombia and Indonesia, looking for acquisitions to grow business
  • Investment in Cellogen for CAR-T therapy program
  • Strategic investments in new technologies like gene therapy and CAR T-cell therapy

Product Development:

  • NCE development: NRC-2694 Phase II trials in the U.S. and India for niche indication, strategy around NCE for future growth
  • Phase II progress on new products
  • Future product pipeline and potential for new revenue drivers

Capex and Expansion:

  • Capex spending for the current year and future projections
  • Impact of capex on fixed asset turnover
  • Future outlook on capex and capacity optimization
  • Expansion into agrochemical business and future growth prospects

Market Opportunities and Risks:

  • Export opportunities in the agrochemical sector
  • Differentiation in agrochemical portfolio compared to competitors
  • Major risks including currency, inspection, and pricing risks

Other:

  • Consideration of corporate actions like buybacks
  • Return on capital expectations for acquisitions
  • Future guidance on Revlimid sales and performance
  • Closing comments and appreciation for investor interaction

D: Invested

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Buildup of Cash: 720 Crs in books!
400 Cr capex in last 3 yrs, without any incremental debt!
Promoter holding went up by 3% in this year!

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My two cents:

  1. Earning growth will be higher from previous quarters in general for Pharma companies due to easing of pricing pressure in US. Complex generic is the place where money can be made.
  2. In heady days of 2015, pharma companies were considered as defensive stocks. Pharma companies current valuations around 20 is attractive, considering 2015, where they command 70PE also.
    My views for upcoming years is highly positive for pharma sector.

Disclosure: Invested in Natco, Aaarti Pharmalabs and Supriya Lifescience

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I’m sharing a GROUND report by Botlivala & Karani Securities Pvt. Ltd. on their visit to the Hyderbad Pharma plants. It also covers Natco Pharma.

Pharmaceutical - Hyderabad Visit - Flash Note - 01 Apr 24.pdf (347.4 KB)

I hope you find it useful.

dr.vikas

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D: Invested

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Natco Pharma Limited - 672564 - 04/08/2024 Natco Pharma Limited - 672564 - 04/08/2024 | FDA

Contents of warning letter is in public domain
In its response to the usfda Natco had voluntarily suspended drug production/supplies from the dedicated (b) (4) and non dedicated (b) (4) equipments installed at kothur plant to US market which has been acknowledged in the WL… this should be read in the context of companys disclosure to the bourses earlier on this subject…I had a conversation with a member of the investor relations team who confirmed that the two strengths of Lenalidomide that it didn’t have dual clearance for( in the vizag facility) during the post Q2 conference call have been subsequently obtained since…

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