Yes that was for Canada settlement. I was looking for US settlement.
Well summarised @Rafi_Syed. I would recommend to listen to the concall to gauge the bullishness in mgmt tone .
My bull case is company is delivering a pat of approx 500 cr in a year when all major cylinders misfired namely
Hepatitis C
Tamiflu
Domestic oncology
Hepatitis looks more of a secular decline but balance 2Next yr should revive and for fy 22
10 domestic launches
- major launches in brazil, canada
- agri to start contributing
- revlimid
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Agri the first molecule targeted has a current mkt of 2000 cr and they are targeting 9 more unique molecules in the first phase. In most cases they are FTF.
Mkt size of bal molecules will be shared later.
Apart from these there will be commodity pdts but focus is clearly on pdts that bring value to consumer , natco .
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This quarter results are poor mostly due to sales drop in Tamiflu which is used to cure influenza. Influenza as a whole has dropped considerably in the western world due to lockdowns , travel restrictions and enhanced hygiene precautions…
This might be the reason for drop in Tamiflu sales, once things normalize after vaccinations one might have to see how normal resumption affects Tamiflu sales and anti viral market.
The management concall also did not throw a clear picture on the Tamiflu sales for future but they were bullish for their prospects in fy 22 and also sounded pretty confident for the approval of lidalomide pretty soon .
Regards
Divyansh
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Hi,
According to ICICI securities
They assume Natco would launch agro chemical product in FY22E and expect revenue of Rs1.6bn in FY22E and Rs2.7bn in FY23E.They are positive on key product opportunities like Revlimid, Nexavar, Afinitor, etc
Thanks,
Deb
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NATCO launches Brivaracetam tablets, in India, for treatment of epilepsy
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Natco price is about 60 % discount to Dr reddy Tablet mentioned bravactia - which shows 1100 to 1400 type price for strip of 14 tablets( I.e. 80 to 90 rs per tablet)
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5m to 10m patient pool is huge, even a 5% mkt share will mean in range of 250000 to 500000 patients - at average usage of 100 tablets an year( guesstimate only) - that is 100cr to 150 cr revenue opportunity
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NATCO’s marketing partner, Breckenridge Pharmaceutical Inc. (BPI), has received final approval for Everolimus Tablets (generic for Afinitor®) from the USFDA.
BPI plans to launch 2.5 mg, 5 mg and 7.5 mg strengths of the product shortly within the next few weeks. The launch of 10mg strength of the product is subject to confidential terms of a settlement and license agreement entered into with the owner of the Afinitor® brand.
The launch date of 10mg strength of the product will be announced at a later date.
The above strengths of Everolimus are indicated in the treatment of breast cancer and a few other types of cancers. As per industry sales data, Afinitor® and its therapeutic equivalents had generated annual sales of $712 million in USA during the 12 months ending December 2020.
NATCO forays into Pheromone based technology for Integrated Pest Management
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Mating disruption is a proactive way to protect crops by preventing pests from reproducing in the first place. Our mating disruption products release synthetic versions of sex pheromones that female insects emit in nature to attract males for mating. The over abundance of these pheromones in the field confuses males and they can’t find females for mating. The result is the collapse of insect pest populations without a single drop of pesticide. Crop protection couldn’t be safer!
What are pheromones click the link?
http://www.atgc.in/atgc3/about-company.html
Natco → Green Chemistry
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Thanks,
Deb
Zydus got approval for the Revlimid. Any thoughts on the impact of this on the Natco? If even this become crowded, will we able to contain the price drop?
I think Natco is the first settler and the second one is Reddy’s this is the third.
What I understand is only Natco can be the first one to produce (they are yet to receive the approval for production? Collaborators please correct me if this is not the case )
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Cadila is the 5th company to settle here. Others are Natco, Lotus/Alvogen, Dr. Reddy and Cipla.
There would be more players that will come into picture as there are more than 11 generic filers for Revlimid.
But Natco has the most lucrative deal in terms of early launch and volume constraints. But higher number of players can lead to unwanted pricing pressure.
As bought out on the group…generic version can’t be launched till 2026… Also celgene is sharing it’s existing pie till then …why will it lower the price when it’s market share will go down … On the contrary the prices might move north till 2026 and then the generic market will decide it’s future …
You are absolutely right on the part that more players basically means that Celgene is giving up share from it pie.
But for every player to achieve their allowed volume cap, they will have to price their product relative to all other players right. I don’t think that if a company’s price is lower than only Celgene, they will be able to get a market share upto their respective volume cap automatically on the assumption that others have already achieved their respective volume cap.
The missing piece here is obviously how Celgene will enforce the volume caps in the practical world. This question was asked in one concall of Natco, but they did not give an answer to it. Cipla’s management has said in the concall that this is a very unique situation and it is very difficult to asses how the pricing would play out.
Also, markets are forward looking in nature, so if before 2026 there are more players already in the market, the stock market will discount the value of opportunity lower way earlier and not wait till 2026.
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