Mylu long term Portfolio

Q&A: Questions & Answers Portfolio Q&A
102

I am in agreement with the points put forward by you in favor of Indigo in particular and airline industry in general except point no. 3 because both those conditions mentioned by you were man made, known to have a limited time frame and restricted to our own country.
Coming back to air travel, the govt can not afford to kill it as country’s top and most powerful use it , it has to be kept alive.The smallest of countries have some or other own airlines eg maldives. Secondly if indigo does not survive, we will have to accept that none of Indian airlines will survive. This situation is not possible
I would go a step further that if India has to survive as a developing nation, the top 50 or 100 companies with best, honest and innovative management would definitely come out winning, although the time frame would depend upon the sector and the current head/tail winds eg real estate would take quite some time but top fmcg/ road construction & companies using petroleum products as input would have a tail winds because of lower input cost.

103
  1. Cash Reserves: As per CAPA India, cash Reserves are expected to be wiped out by Q1. If the planes are not flying, cash burn will be extremely high. Example Lufthansa burns $1 Million/Hour.

  1. Historically GOI has not bailed out any airline other than Air India. If the taxes ex India were at par with rest of the world and if GOI would have assisted airlines in the past, we would not have the history of Airlines going bust. What we are going through is once in a century event, may be this time GOI assist airlines…we have to wait and watch

  2. There is no evidence that COVID-19 would not spread through Air Travel. What started as a Wuhan Epicentre, is now spread across the world.If the spread is not through air travel then we do not have to ground aircraft across the world.

  3. lets hope that the prospect of global recession is offset by drop in Crude prices

104

Govt has no money as revenues have dried up. In fact the revenues are around 20%of expenditure. Had it not been so, the govt would not HV opened liquor shops and not raised prices of petrol ,Diesel and also duty on crude simultaneously. The govt is in a v tough spot and even if it wishes, it can not provide any substantial relief to airlines.

1 Like
105

Thanks for your advice. There is nothing as lesser RISK and you would known it by now in this COVID situation :slight_smile:

My SIP is based on experience and eloborate stock analysis in planning phase .No plans to revisit any of my portfolio stocks (or) changing the course as of now.

2 Likes
106

@mylu

How do you see Chola performing from here? I was invested earlier (was my top holding) but I had exited when it has fallen to 200 levels. It seems nbfcs are going to have a tough time from here to retain the past glory. I am really interested in current levels to reenter but not sure of recovery time. Are you looking at a really long time view or you will exist after a few years as you have mentioned in the past?

Yours is one of the finest examples in terms of holding onto good stocks with conviction and often thought of following similar approach in the past. Except indigo and Chola(Nothing wrong with them fundamentally, just don’t know the timing how long it’s gonna take to recover) I won’t have any issues in holding other companies in your list in the current scenario.

1 Like
107

Thanks for the appreciative note. I agree with you turbulence time ahead for chola and indigo but they are the ones which i expect will survive the storm.

The storm will surely wipe out few players from the system whose business will get added to the surviving ones . isnt it? :smile:

I never recommend on buying (or) selling but if you done your analysis just proceed for buying and don’t wait for any price correction.

6 Likes
108

Thanks. You are right. I am very risk averse so I decided to exit for time being. I am planning to reenter most of my previous holdings including Chola when I see some signs of recovery, business wise.

1 Like
109

Hello! My First Contribution here.
Please do correct me if I am wrong. Open to constructive criticism

I see that you have been doing SIPs in stock, I am also assuming that you have done in depth analysis of the companies before starting SIPs in stocks directly?
But I find one problem this this strategy (not the stocks you have selected), what if company we are doing SIPs in, turns out to be like Jet Airways or Yes Bank or many other such cases? You mentioned that capital protection is something you are looking at right, so won’t investing in Large Cap Focused Mutual Fund fulfill the criteria?

I am not saying investment in equities should not be made, obviously one can make investments in equities for higher returns. But as for SIPs in stocks directly, does it makes more sense than Mutual Funds?

Thanks

1 Like
110

Advantage of Direct equity sip over Mutual fund sip

  1. No forced redemption during downfall due to other investors exiting.
  2. Same companies remain in portfolio after the fall. In mutual funds liquid stocks will be redeemed and the brave person doing sip will have illiquid worthless stocks after the fall.
  3. No manager fees.
  4. No limit on individual stock allocation.
  5. No limit to universe selection. Any stock available can be bought.
  6. Control over turnover of portfolio.
  7. Adequate diversification not diworsification.

Mutual funds also fail and withdraw. Their stories are not popular and they are removed from all database. This causes survivorship bias and people think all mutual funds are safe.

8 Likes
111

SIP Done

image

TCI express as usual rocks and surprise leadership march by CDSL. Overall P/L is @ -5 %

9 Likes
112

Do you calculate the P&L as Investment Value As on Today/Invested Amount or do you use the XIRR formula in excel to calculate the CAGR?

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113

I dont use any specific formulas …it straightforward value as of today /invested amount.

114

I see you follow a very disciplined process and approach for your PF…

  • How do you avoid getting attracted to other stocks (cheap value or higher growth) and just focus on selected few ? don’t you have any watchlist?
  • What is your replacement criteria if you want to replace any stocks in the PF ?

Thanks.

2 Likes
115

I sincerely suggest you try the XIRR route. This will give you a true number you can judge your investments.

1 Like
116

Can you share me that XIRR calculations if you have customised one?

117

  1. Lessons learnt over the years may be made me matured enough :smile:

  2. My time goes in planning and hence till date i have seen them swing back in worst scenario as well… So no specific strategy now and will cross the bridge once i reach it.

You will surely be knowing it as well.

118

That’s really nice and good to know. Can you pls let us know those lessons and how and when you learnt them? Also since when have you been investing? Thanks

119

Here you go…I made one for you.

2 Likes
120

SIP done.Latest

Stock --> %gain/loss
CDSL 17%
Chola -16%
Indigo -10%
TCI-XPS 12%
VGuard -16%

6 Likes
122

SIP Done. Latest

Symbol Avg Price %Gain %Alloc
CDSL 238 47 19.98%
CHOLAFIN 239 -16 20.02%
INDIGO 1112 -11 20.01%
TCIEXP 596 18 20.01%
VGUARD 201 -19 19.97%
5 Likes