KEI and Polycab dont give volume data . If you go through their concalls you’ll find that they acceed the sales growth during 20-21 is due to most part due to increase in copper prices.
However in case of KEI industries you have to look into the revenue breakup during these 2 years .Contribution of Retail which has higher margin has been steadily increasing which also reflects on EBIDTA margins.
I think of it this way ,In last 2 years the raw materials prices have increased 50% the top cable companies(including KEI) have been able to pass on the massive cost increase to customers and some have even been able increase their margins .
I would be worried if the margins start contracting suggesting a price war or over supply .
Disc: KEI Industries is the largest part of my portfolio
another one question is on how this industry is behave in downtrend of commodity price.
Right now when prices are increasing trend they bought the inventory at some date, say jan at 1000 and since copper price is moving higher to 1050 at the end of month, they might increase retail price and say at march copper price moved to 1300, they even hike the retail price to match the market price. Having 3 month inventory period, they might be selling the copper they bought at 1000 as (1300 + other costs+profit). But when we reverse the trend with price of copper in jan with 1300 and in march as 1000, here will there be any impact due to the lag in passing the price to customer?
I understand buying and selling is an recurring activity, this cost difference is averaged out and they even buy copper at 1300 level and also at 1000. But wont there be any 2-3% EBITDA level decrease in margin when copper price is in downtrend when comparing uptrend
Good Question!
In case of B2B (Cable wires to institutions) they(KEI Industries, I think its a industry practice) purchase inventory against orders .
In case of B2C (Retail) they revise retail prices as per avg inventory cost every 15 days.
What this means that In case of copper price down trend obviously EBITDA level will recede however how much will depend upon how long the inventory cycle is in retail business.
A better comparision would be FY22 vs FY20 since FY21 was impacted due to covid. It appears Kei is reaching pre-covid levels. Businesswise, KEI not being a FMEG player, its comparison with Polycab & Havells is strictly not apple to apple. Havell’s focus certainly would be in high margin products like switchgears, lightings etc.
9M figures (as per screener): -
sales growth = 9%
OPM remains constant at 10-11%
EPS growth = 18%
The management seems to have taken a conservative stand on retail foray (specifically FMEG) which they were gungho about until this qtr They now want to focus on their existing lines of business both on the retail and institutional front with gradual price hikes, which makes sense to me. However, would be more interested to see their thrust on export front in the coming years. The management seems fairly confident of increasing their existing topline and bottomline growth in the coming years.
P.S. This is not to be treated/construed as buy/sell recommendation. Please do your own due deligence.
Capex of 800cr in pipeline
solar is the new kicker
Capital cycle should be good as govt will be paying up. Metros are coming up in every city + overhead to underground electricty wires.
GST payment delay caused some payment delays from Govt. EPC exposure has been reduced as per management.
Good runway for growth on a low base.
Expects annual revenue to increase to 12k from 6k crores in the next 4 years.
Margins to expand by 1-2 % in the next 3-4 years. Annual operating profit should be 1300(current TTM is 635) crores based on this management’s guidance in FY27.
Aiming for 17-18% revenue growth next 3-4 years.
Current B2C/retail % is 42% and expects it to become 50-55% in the next two years.
