Gourab Paul EV Ecosystem India, 2023

[Donald]

@GourabPaul assisted by @SushmitaPanigrahi our in-house EV Domain Experts (guided towards Actionables Roadmap very ably by @nirvana_laha) worked very hard to create this EV Domain Deep Dive Presentation that has enough meat, and something for everyone . It’s a good starting doc and work-in-progress!

EV_Ecosystem_ValuePickr_Conference_April_2023.pdf (3.8 MB)

Again one of the most well-appreciated presentations in the Conference. Sorry about the delays from my side, was travelling. For those who get distracted by the mere mention of Deep Dives, you can dive straight away to Actionables Slides - 35, 60, 66-70

We have a EV Working Group going, and the group has exciting plans to get to/stay on top of this domain in a structured manner - they will share the plans, shortly. Those who like to dive deep, here’s a practical treasure trove – you know where to head to!

Meanwhile, if you like the enclosed presentation, please don’t be shy of showing our appreciation for the wonderful efforts demonstrated by this years Newcomers/Domain Experts - we have a good thing going!. Not on this post - but in the subsequent posts that will follow. Thanks.

PS: Also a call-out to other VP Members who are working in the Auto/Ancillary/EV domains. Here’s your chance to raise your hand and be counted in – what is going to be a very rewarding collaborative effort in the years to come.

[GourabPaul]

Thank you @Donald da for the introduction. The topic (and the pdf) is still a work in progress as the industry is transitioning and there are many moving elements here.

The focus of the presentation was

1. Which components will not change much. ( e.g. shunts, capacitors)
2. Where can the companies generate economies of scale. (battery components - electrolyte, anode, cathode)
3. How are the supply chain dynamics changing across the Auto and EV domain. (OEM opening cost centers)
4. Discovering some actionable ideas. ( Charging infrastructure , components for motors etc.)

What @nirvana_laha , @SushmitaPanigrahi and me would do next is to deep dive into each sub-segment and identify the major players / technologies.

There are also great threads across VP connecting the EV transition (like Shivalik Bimetal Controls Stock Story or Gujarat Fluorochemicals: A hidden fluorine story). We would like this thread to become a go to map for all the topic.

[immanishyadav]

wow, what a work man. This seems to be a work of maestro. Thanks for sharing this.

I would like to share some segments, where we can find some opportunities. Segments like BMS( Battery management system) which is currently growing at 19.5%. The Chinese giant CATL dominates this segment globally with big clientele. Although shift in China+1 can help some of the Indian businesses too. Endurance technology is one of the companies who entered into this segment with acquisition of Maxwell BMS. It would be very helpful if you look into this BMS segment.

[Sajal_Singh]

Great work guys, very intuitive presentation. Looking forward to the deep dive threads.

[YVSurendra]

Great work @GourabPaul @nirvana_laha @SushmitaPanigrahi

[ganesh_bastwadkar]

Great article. Would like to know more updates on Lithium ion Battery Cell manufacturing in India.
Thanks

https://forum.valuepickr.com/uploads/short-url/7g2w3Zi03TjquB9HWGhkFxZVk5T.pdf

This is also one relevant article.

[jainabhishek77]

Very in-depth presentation. Thank you for sharing such an invaluable information!

[Sriram_07]

Amazing article. What will be the effect on EV 2W sales if and when the FAME subsidy is withdrawn. Is that the reason why big OEMs are not diving into EV 2W fully fledged.

[Mahim701]

Excellent presentation… Thanks @SushmitaPanigrahi, @GourabPaul, @nirvana_laha…
Recently I watched an interview by Ford CEO… Where he talks about difference between ICE and EV eco system… And how legacy automakers are adopting to the same…

One point that cought my attention is where he talks about importance of software in EV and there is a Fundamental shift in the way EV will be produced by Ford in future.

Basically OEM in ICE vehicles are Assemblers… They take different companents from 100 of companies and assemble… This makes perfect sense in ICE vehicles as each component is mechanical part and they won’t talk to each other…

Contrary to this in EV Architecture, there will be software in most parts of the car and they needs to communicate with each other.
Assembling components from different ancillary companies is not feasible and complete EV architecture in future Ford models will be insourced.

If this is the way OEMs will go then what it means for auto ancillary companies…

Link to the interview

The Man Behind The Best-Selling Truck In 50 Years - Ford CEO Jim Farley | The Fully Charged Podcast

[satish_kumar1]

SchneiderElectric’s EV associated capabilities are just exceptional. Anyone who’s following EV charging, battery, manufacturing space in this context should spend a good time reading this 73-page detailed capabilities report.

https://download.schneider-electric.com/files?p_Doc_Ref=ESXP2RG001EN&p_enDocType=Application+Notes&p_File_Name=ESXP2RG001EN_EV_Battery_Plant.pdf

[GourabPaul]

A recent idea that have come to @nirvana_laha and my notice as an ancillary play to EV batteries.

https://www.screener.in/company/HEG/consolidated/

Demand scenario of Lithium ion batteries

Conservatively Battery capacity required by 2030 is around 122 GWh - Source and Discussion with experts.

Major components of a Battery

Major components of a lithium ion cell

Approximate percentage of anode in a cell by cost source

the battery cell chemistry value chain

Conservatively = 122 GWh of lithium ion battery demand
1 GWh battery requires around 1000 tons of Graphite
Domestic demand by 2030 would be 1,22,000 tons at least. Globally much larger
~40-50% of the cost is energy for anode production. HEG is the first company to invest in Capex under subsidiary TACC for 20000 tons by FY27.

HEG’s power cost is 5.5 rupees / Unit vs G.I ~ 8 rupees / unit, the management has claimed that they are the cheapest in the country and competitive with China

This is the cost structure, HEG’s new subsidy TACC will supply Battery grade Graphite

Synthetic graphite’s demand is rising as it can enhance life and fast charge applications. Most manufacturers will make synthetic graphite.

Upcoming trigger

Chinese ban on Graphite export
China is a dominant graphite producer / refiner. The export curb would mean higher cost of Anode powder for rest of the world

Anode powder cost might rise to $14-15 for the rest of the world. Graphite will become a very strategic mineral.

Valuation by FY27

Note:

• Graphite powder will be used regardless we use Sodium ion, Lithium ion chemistries
• Silicon will not replace the traditional graphite anode before 2030. There is no commercial usage evidence [usage by Tesla, Merc, BYD ] other than company marketing

PEERS
Himadri Specialty Chemicals – Supplies to OLA on behalf of their JV partner, LFP play
PCBL – Not clear if they will venture into anode powder production, but management has indicated that they are definitely on the lookout for EV plays
Graphite India – Invested in some startups focused on silicon anode ( moonshot IMO)
Epsilon – Focus on US markets.

Disc: Invested and Biased. I am not a valuation expert.

[vipraw_srivastava]

One small issue with the diagram. Spheroidizing works with natural graphite, not artificial graphite, hence the image is incorrect. Battery Grade Graphite > Graphitization > Anode Paste

[GourabPaul]

While graphite in the range of 10-13 microns may not go through the spherodization process, Lower sized artificial graphite can go through spherodization process. It completely depends on the cell manufacturer strategy.

The main reason to sperodize is to protect the edges of the graphite layer from reacting with the electrolyte. A sphere has the lowest surface area and hence the exposed edges are less. We sometimes also put a layer of anhydrous carbon to protect.

A lot of research is going on with the graphite / silicon anode especially since it is relevant for fast charging. So the technology is not yet stable.

As regards to HEG. They indicated not to go beyond the graphitization process.

[vipraw_srivastava]

so just one follow up? How is manufacturing of graphite anode different from manufacturing of graphite electrode, HEG’s core business? Both sound similar, right? Just wanted to understand can HEG face any technical difficulties in the manufacturing of anode

[saurabhgupta]

As per Q2 Concall of HEG, OPM - 20% but screener is showing 17%.
I also noticed same thing in some of the other companies as well. Is screener data is not reliable when it comes to OPM?