Geospatial sector - Sunrise Opportunity

I have been meaning to start this thread for awhile but due to the amount of effort involved to do justice, kept postponing it. Decided to do this in multiple posts as I find interest and time. This one will focus mainly on the basics, like a primer about the space - mainly on the technology involved with a brief intro to the geospatial policy and listed companies in this space.

Let’s start with what we mean by geospatial data since it encompasses a wide range of information.

Lat/long - Lets start with something we all already relate to - lat/long - or latitude and longitude which are coordinates used to specify locations on the earth’s surface. Latitude lines run horizontal and are also called parallels while longitude lines run vertical and are also called meridians.

Both are expressed in degrees (and minutes and seconds or decimal degrees for additional precision). Any point on the surface of the earth can thus be expressed as a combination of latitude and longitude. In the image, the lat/long of Washington D.C. is shown (39° N and 77° W).

This has been sufficient enough for most applications we have been using so far, from charting (cartography) for denoting geographic features, cities and landmarks etc., to surveying (cadastral maps) to navigation maps used in applications like Google maps.

This however has some limitations - a lat/long while it denotes a point on the earth’s surface, it doesn’t deal with elevation information (altitude of earth’s surface, or which floor in a building at that location is etc.), doesn’t deal with human readable addresses and has been complex to communicate with precision (or for intuitive understanding). It also doesn’t tell us what the place looks like, what’s the weather like (additional attributes) and precise features of buildings or the insides of buildings etc. or keep track of things changing, which people might be interested in.

Addresses - House numbers, Road/Street names, areas, cities pin codes etc. This is something we have been using from the time postal system has been around and is the oldest known form of geospatial data (given a lat/long in a city, it is possible to get accurate associated address in most places)

Vector data (Points, Lines, Polygons) - Points data is the simplest of vector data and represents a lat/long that corresponds to a point on earth. These could be used to specify addresses, landmarks, cities etc. Lines represent straight lines or curved lines that might represent a street or a river or a navigation route. Polygons represent closed regions on earth’s surface (could be a boundary of a town or a area, say like Koramangala). These are typically stores in a geospatial database as GeoJSON objects.

In a geospatial database, say for a e-commerce company that stores addresses of customers and also knows location of its warehouses - the points are stored as geometry objects (GeoJSON format) and these databases allow you to get distance between two points, points within region or check if point is within region etc. (Useful for delivery companies to see what’s serviceable or find nearest warehouse etc.). This calculation is currently done by these companies without need for any mapping data (all companies from BigBasket, Swiggy, Zepto etc. do it) but for real-time information on traffic and figuring out actual navigation (points within region doesn’t use navigation for figuring out distance) and actual distance etc. geospatial data from a third-party company like mapmyindia is essential.

Raster data (Satellite images) - This represents the earth surface data as a grid of pixels or cells. Each cell might represent an attribute on the surface - like temperature (to show a heatmap of India for eg.) or terrain type (like forest, river, city, building etc.). The resolution (spatial resolution) of these cells can vary. Technically there needn’t be any restriction on what this cell size can be in representation but regulations and also feasibility (of say putting sensors) could determine what this cell size in the grid will be.

This is a good eg. of how the real world gets translated into a raster image that shows the terrain as a satellite map in Google maps will represent

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Multi-spectral data - Satellite images needn’t only be in RGB and can actually capture infra-red and ultra-violet as well. This is especially useful to monitor soil moisture, vegetation health, land cover and water quality (Carbon capture verification for eg. to issue certificates also uses this). Multi-spectral data can also be captured at higher resolutions with drones using remote-sensing. This data is typically used in Agriculture, Forestry, Environmental monitoring, Water resources, Urban planning and Disaster management

Multi-temporal data - This is monitoring the same area, using same grid and cell resolution across time - say to monitor an afforestation initiative or for carbon credits. Can also be used to compare weather across months or a river body over the seasons etc. Temporal resolution measures how frequently the data is collected. Higher the resolution, higher the cost incurred of course and so will depend on the type of application. A forest may need monitoring at weekly resolution but soil moisture in a farm at an hourly resolution and a forest-fire in minutes and so on

Geo-referenced Imagery - This could vary from simple geotagged images that show a restaurant or building photos, to more complicated street-view data captured using 360 degree cameras or building images in 3D captured using drones.

Sensor data - There could be data from IoT sensors across an area which are measured using physical sensor present in the location that stream the information periodically

LiDAR (Point-cloud data) - LiDAR stands for light-detection and ranging and involves sending a laser pulse and measuring time taken for it to bounce back from the surface to generate an accurate distance information for various points generating a point-cloud. It is typically used to generate elevation maps, structure of terrain and objects. In topography, it is used for high-accuracy elevation mapping (flood modelling, landform classification), judging canopy height in a forest and for mapping archaeological sites, historical monuments

These days even iPhones come with a LiDAR sensor which is used for scanning 3D objects. Apple Vision Pro as well uses a LiDAR scanner to scan the environment and generate a point cloud so it can accurately place screens (what it calls spatial computing)

Point cloud data generated by LiDAR has millions and billions of points in 3D space with additional attributes for intensity and other attributes. Typically stored in LAS/LAZ format (LiDAR aerial survey. LAZ is compressed form of LAS)

Radar - Radar uses microwave to bounce off earth’s surface and is used in weather tracking. Like LiDAR, Radar is a active sensing technology (unlike multi-spectral or thermal data which is passive)

Photogrammetry - This is sort of similar to LiDAR but instead of using laser beams to measure deflections, here a 3D model is generated by simply taking high-quality 2D images from multiple viewpoints and reconstructing the 3D shape. This is typically done from drones or some other aerial photography. Application here too are similar to LiDAR.

Eg. of photogrammetrically generated 3D model

It should be clear by now that when we say “geospatial data”, it could mean a plethora of different types of data, captured by a variety of ways from manned land vehicles to drones or planes, to satellites, to drones with LiDAR or photogrammetry capability and used for a variety of purposes from urban planning, forestry, water management, navigation, logistics, ecological conservation, agriculture, mining, marine etc.

Highlights from Geospatial policies
India has liberalised its geospatial policy in two recently announced notifications - Feb ‘21 and Dec ‘22. What I mean by liberalisation is this taken from the first doc. Earlier this was not possible.

And there’s a natural moat in this for Indian companies. This is why Google licenses street view data from Genesys though they are perfectly capable of doing it on their own as they have done in other countries

Areas where the govt. wants to focus on

Govt’s vision of where we need to be in the next 10 years. We are just in year 1 of the geospatial evolution of the country

Brief overview of listed companies
Mapmyindia is a pioneer in this space and has presence in automotive and e-commerce segments and focuses mainly in B2B and B2B2C segment. They appear to remain focused in this space with their product Mappls. Genesys is the company which worked with HERE maps and was mainly a service provider until the geospatial policy but has reinvented itself with the digital twin initiatives and has quickly built a platform for the same. Ceinsys is another one in this space which has been doing geospatial services for international businesses like Fugro and Indian/State govts. which recently also made an acquisition in automotive space (AllyGrow). Genesys/Ceinsys business model is primarily B2G. Other unlisted companies in this space can be found in Association of Geospatial Industries (AGI) website.

Of these, Genesys and Ceinsys have shown lot of aptitude for growth since the geospatial policy announcements and have swelling order books as well coming from across various sectors (maybe because they are B2G). With sudden opportunities like these, capital is of utmost necessity to grow. Genesys raised capital from some marquee investors in ‘22 (like Malabar) and has used it for digital twin initiatives and Ceinsys is set to raise 300 Cr (mcap of ~900 Cr) with healthy promoter participation of close to 100 Cr.

Genesys has guided for a 1000-1500 Cr revenue in 2-3 yrs with a 25-30% margin. The entire sector could be 30k Cr size in 5 yrs time so this should be achievable as per Genesys MD. Ceinsys as well should be foreseeing similar opportunities considering the size of the capital raise (and the sizeable order book). The companies in this space are diverse and pursuing different parts of the geospatial policy with Genesys focusing on the digital twins, Ceinsys on governance projects and there are few companies that work with panchayats on just Agriculture theme for eg… There is enough space for everyone to flourish - its more like IT companies with domain specific knowledge.

Here are some of the projects from Ceinsys AR which are across various sector from power, smart cities, water management, mines and minerals, agriculture, highways, property tax system, land records digitisation, digitisation of cadastral maps etc.

Ceinsys though attracted me from a value standpoint after their AllyGrow acquisition. I now realise that the opportunity size in geospatial business is rather large and shouldn’t be considered a legacy business by any means.

Sources

  1. Genesys - SoI partnership (Has demo their platform in the end) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LEXoJctkMd0&t=7s
  2. Sajid Malik interview - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-pJfJcD16eI&t=1206s
  3. Ceinsys Annual Report and AGM transcript
  4. Geospatial policy docs Feb ‘21 and Dec ‘22

Risks

  1. Business is dependent on govt’s whims and policy changes. Since this sector itself is rather new post policy shift of liberalisation, there is perhaps time to worry about this risk
  2. Govt. doesn’t have a history of paying on time - this may have changed in the recent couple of years but needs to be watched
  3. Both Genesys (Sajid Malik is BJP spokesperson Shazia Ilmi’s husband) and Ceinsys (part of Maharashtra MLA Sagar Meghe’s Meghe group) are politically connected to the ruling party. Political risks do exist in the long run though at present its fine

Disc: Invested in Ceinsys and Genesys

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A nice crisp/ basic video showing how we use geospatial/fencing technology in everyday life with/ without knowing

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Very nice and detailed information :ok_hand: :ok_hand:

have written about genesys in this thread you can have a look
:point_down:

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Scanpoint geomatics ltd is another small company ( ~100cr market cap)involved geospatial domain through their IGiS technology which brings GIS, image processing ,photogrammetry and CAD(computer aided drafting) together on a single platform. They have technology development partnership with ISRO. Their IGiS technology seems to be used in sectors like defence, land records system, agriculture and urban information system.
Company blog has useful material to understand about GIS.

Company recently came out with right issue and had virtual investor meet which gives overview on sector and company.

Discl: not invested in scanpoint…holding Genesys.

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Observed 3 red flags

  1. Of the 49 cr rights issue 35 cr being used for repayment of unsecured loans (mostly promoter group)

  2. Promoter holding is 7.68%…no skin in the game

  3. Company has capital wip sinc last 5 yrs + and continuously increasing. This is more likely a bogus asset.

Regards
Disc. Not invested

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How does mapmyindia fit into this sector?
just trying to understand what genesys and ceinsys are doing different from mapmyindia?
fundamnetally, i did not find ceinsys very convincing.

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Thank you sir, as soon as I see today’s budget land document digitalisation statement I just remember this thread and where to look. Any inputs on how big this is going to be as our land records are a big mess and lot needs to be done. Most of land records come under state governments and how they are going to play along with central funding. Thanks for this information.

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Genesys Annual report page 11 talks about newer verticals

The company has built one of the most comprehensive
data models and a map stack which allows it to address
multiple markets.
Whilst the content and stack got developed - the
company has been working on various verticals and
markets and in the near future - we expect to launch
every quarter a new vertical in the coming year .
For example we recently launched the Automobile
vertical with our partnership with global leader NNG ,
similarly we expect to launch newer verticals in location
intelligence and 3D every quarter.

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Thanks for sharing this super information. Broadly most would understand meaning of Geospatial from Google but beyond that is what you have compiled in this write up. Have taken a small position in ceinsys.

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I have been meaning to do detailed write-ups on Ceinsys and Genesys but haven’t found the motivation to do so. I think I have done numerous posts in the bull therapy thread over the past year though on both and don’t want to repeat the same mundane details from concalls, presentations and ARs. Anyone with a bit of motivation can find those details themselves.

Of late though I noticed a slew of orders won by Ceinsys (Order book had stood at 750 Cr before these)

  1. 29 Cr CIDCO order for GIS implementation with drone survey and basemap creation (3 yrs)
  2. 331 Cr SWSM/WSSD, MH Gov order for IoT deployment including design, implementation and maintenance for Jal Jeevan mission in MH phase 2. They had done a similar order in '22 in phase 1 (2 years impl. + 5 yrs maintenance)
  3. 28 Cr MHADA order for Land Management System, GIS mobile app, (2 years + Maintenance for 3 yrs)

with these, of course order book has crossed 1000 Cr and not adjusting for runoff during the quarter, should be around 1150 Cr. All these new orders are firmly in the Geospatial space which again affirms the strong tailwind we are going to see in this space in the coming years. I believe we may have just started here.

Now onto the interesting part. While looking up these tenders and scope of work etc. I stumbled upon this article.

Initially I was confused and thought this must be same as the 331 Cr order recently reported but realised upon double-checking that the disclosed order win for was SWSM while this one is for WRD (Water Resources Department). The scope of work as well is completely different with one being for IoT deployment for Jal Jeevan mission (drinking water) while the other is for Wainganga-Nalganga river linking for irrigation of 4.14 lakh hectares of land in the Marathwada/Vidarbha regions. The bid amount as well is 331 Cr vs 385 Cr and timeline 2 years vs 6 months (which I realised after I double checked the tender online)

In the tender technical details doc, I found some very interesting stuff - like how exactly was the tender awarded to Ceinsys. (You can get these docs from any of the tender assistance sites for a small fee)

There were a total of 4 bidders for this tender and the other three were disqualified in QCBS (quality and cost based selection) as they did not score above 70. Others scored 35,43 and 10 while ceinsys scored 89.

Now to understand what gave ceinsys the edge, I re-read the tender doc and also the result detail doc and this is what I found

  1. Similar type of work with value > 115 Cr done in the past - ceinsys scored 16.30 here while rest scored 0. Ceinsys was the only one with prior experience in this sort of project.

  2. Technical personnel (structural engineer, hydrology expert, agri expert, GIS expert, tunnel expert, resettlement expert, survey expert etc.) ceinsys scored 18 here while closest did 6. I dont know how many other companies would have hydrology, GIS/Survey, Agri, Structural engineer and resettlement and rehab specialist on their payrolls.

  1. Plant and machinery for LiDAR and other things. ceinsys scored 12 while rest did 0

It makes better sense now why ceinsys say they win 90% of what they bid but they are very selective on what they bid. Its perhaps the confluence of skillsets, equipment, experience and capital. Its possible and you can argue that the tender criteria itself is skewed to support Ceinsys but to me it looks like a fair evaluation of prior experience, capability and ensuring the people and equipment are present and the other bidders weren’t even close on this basic evaluation.

This is just a L1 bid award as of now. Not sure how long this becomes a LoA and I would assume Ceinsys would notify the exchanges only post that (hopefully there’s no slip from now to then). If you are interested in understanding this project, then check this and this. The whole project outlay seems to be a whopping 87k Cr and seems to have been approved in August (probably a big poll plank in the drought hit Vidarbha/Marathwada regions). Another thing to think about is all the river-linking projects which are planned (quite a few of them) and I think not many can compete in these with Ceinsys.

I feel a bit more confident that though there is political risk, the company’s capabilities can’t be denied. The funds have been raised from promoter and FPI as well, so an acquisition abroad can’t be far away and along with the allygrow/allygram and data center business, the govt. dependency should reduce which will make this quite a robust business.

Disc: I am invested in Ceinsys since Oct '23. No recent transactions. I am not SEBI registered and these are just my opinions and please don’t act based on this without further research.

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Thank you for sharing valuable information.
Can you please share the websites from where you found out that ceinsys was the lowest bidder and the website from where you found out the technical tender details doc. This would help a lot of beginner investors.

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Thanks for detailed post.

Just wated to know why Median Remuneration of Ceinsys Tech Ltd see following two observation

  1. It is too low FY24: 348000
  2. There was fall in Median Remuneration 2020(110974) and 2021(120476)

Any input on this?

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Thank you for the detailed post. This is very informative. Would be keen to hear your thoughts on the negative working capital cycle? Not sure how to reconcile this.

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Very nice post .

One of the bidder was WAPCOS ,it operates in 50+ countries with turnover of Circa 1500 cr (hope its the same company ,brief given below ).

  • WAPCOS Limited is a prominent public sector enterprise in India that provides consultancy and engineering services.
    • Established in 1969 under the Ministry of Jal Shakti
    • Accorded “Mini Ratna-I” status by the Government of India
    • 100% owned by the Government of India with an authorized share capital of Rs. 200 crores

Another bidder SMC infrastructure pvt ltd is part of J.Kumar-SMC JV, which recently won contracts worth Rs 1,823 crore from BMC and Navi Mumbai Municipal Corporation

Ceinsys being L1 bidder / winning such project definitely speaks about their "competitive edge "(and not only bcos of political connections )

Discl : Invested and views may be biased

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There are several like bidassist, tendertiger, tendersontime etc. Please use google or chatgpt (ask “where can i find indian govt tenders?” and then ask “any third party portals?” if it gives the govt. portals to get an idea of third party portals)

I think 3.5 lakhs would be par for the course in this industry. This isn’t TCS or Infosys. The work is operation heavy both on ground and in processing. They would have lot of freshers in processing work and skilled manual labour in operations. To compare, check what it is with a competitor like Genesys. Exactly same 3.5 lakhs (0.35 million) for men and would likely be lower if both men and women were included as one as female remuneration is 2.6 lakhs.


Source: Genesys AR

As for why it was low during Covid, if I remember right, they had lot of contract workers then and were probably paying less as there was no business with govt happening during Covid in '20 and '21. It is mentioned in one of the AGMs.

I suspect the negative working capital has more to do with your calculation than reality.

For a company like ceinsys, there’s a lot of “project and other operating expenses” and “other expenses” on which they might be able to pay the vendors after the govt. pays them (which is where the 50 Cr payables comes from which is ~15% of total expenses). However, most DPO calculations take this

image

In this COGS for Ceinsys won’t include a bulk of the project cost and other opex.

So it will look like DPO is high when its not. When DPO is high, of course you will see negative working capital (R + I - P) but that’s not the real story. In reality It would be positive. I dont think its abnormal.

Receivables though are what we should keep an eye on in a business facing the govt.

These are the receivable days as per screener and I think its more or less accurate on this. It is on a good trajectory.

247 → 153 → 154 → 143

Mr. Kamat has mentioned in one of the calls that 120 days is what they will strive for but it cannot get better than that as they aren’t a software company to have < 90 days receivables

These sort of questions I think you can find answers through Google, ARs, concalls if you put in a bit of effort.

After the last post, I found one more tender where Ceinsys is L1. System Integrator SI for Monitoring Infrastructure Projects using IDDP for MMRDA

So I think along with confirmed order book of 1150 Cr, there is ~500 Cr of L1 as well from the two orders.

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Ceinsys Tech is currently working on several “ïmportant” projects across different sectors:

  1. Wainganga-Nalganga river link project: Ceinsys Tech has emerged as the lowest bidder (L1) for this project in Maharashtra, with a contract value of ₹385.15 crore(LOA yet to receive ) . The project involves preparing a detailed project report for linking the Wainganga and Nalganga rivers across seven districts in Maharashtra[

  2. State Water and Sanitation Mission (SWSM) project in Uttar Pradesh: Ceinsys Tech received an extension until December 31, 2024, for a major project from SWSM, Uttar Pradesh. They are acting as a consultant for Third Party Inspection (TPI) and monitoring of physical and financial progress for various Rural Water Supply Projects in the Chitrakoot cluster

  3. New Mexico Lidar project: The company was awarded a service order from Fugro USA Land Inc. for extracting all assets for a New Mexico 2023/2024 Lidar project covering 15,581 miles. The order value is ₹5.26cr

  4. Maharashtra Housing Development Authority (MHADA) project: Ceinsys Tech received a Letter of Acceptance from MHADA for a project worth ₹27.77 cr

  5. Water and Sanitation Mission (SWSM) project in Maharashtra: The company received a Letter of Award from SWSM, Water Supply and Sanitation Department, Government of Maharashtra for Phase II, amounting to ₹331.61 Crores

  6. City and Industrial Development Corporation of Maharashtra Limited (CIDCO) project: Ceinsys Tech received a letter of acceptance from CIDCO for an undisclosed project

These projects showcase Ceinsys Tech’s involvement in various sectors, including water resources management, sanitation, geospatial services, and urban development across different states in India.

Discl: Invested ,views are biased

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@phreakv6 The IDDP implementation for MMRDA involves several technological components where I think Ceinsys have a competitive edge over the other 2 listed players (as they have done this before )like :

Integration of Systems - The platform will integrate engineering data with multiple applications, including:

  • BIM Implementation
  • Business Analytics
  • GIS Systems
  • ERP
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There’s a lot of useful stuff about the geospatial sector (specifically for land records) in this that adds to my initial post. Bit long but quite useful

This one from the 8 min mark shows the importance that the govt. is giving this sector and emphasizes that we have barely begun

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Best way to understand GIS is to go thru this short video

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This was shared in the Burger King thread. but it belongs here. The clever use of geofencing tech. What a brilliant usecase for geofencing.

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