Genus Power - Smart Metering

You cannot blame on poor Corporate Governance. If you go through the last Concal, management had clearly indicated that big orders from Govt can start flowing any time.
Jan 2008 high for the stock was Rs 80 and now it is available at 100…
There is no harm in loosing initial 10 to 20% rally when there is a decadal opportunity… People now entering will have a benefit regarding certainty of Smart meter project… If you are looking for long term investment its always good to onboard when things are more clear…

Concal Excerpt for reference:

Capacity utilization is around 40% to 50% in the current times due to the shortage of raw material and what we feel the way we have done the planning in last two quarters and the
way that things are getting normal every day - by the end of June I would say second quarter of the next financial year capacity utilization will start getting better, will start
reaching the normalized phase from July end. Once the capacity utilization gets normalized
the margins will also get better than previous levels but it will be from Q3 or Q4.

**The tenders are highest ever historically.So if I talk of as on date, , we have almost Rs.
13,000 Crores tender which are in the pipeline out of which almost Rs. 1,800 Crores has
been quoted and Rs. 7,000 crore tenders will be quoted in the next two to three months. And
even the order pipeline if you see the industry wise, like we got some orders from
Jharkhand, from private utilities, we have got some good order booking in last quarter and
this quarter also order booking will have some good numbers. Same way the industry wide
also you will see very good order booking. Otherwise also like EESL, they got an order of
Rs. 600 Crores from Assam. So now they have come out with a tender in the market where
they will buy meters. So order booking has also started from the State Electricity Boards to
system integrators like IntelliSmart. InAndhra Pradesh AP Board have given orders, so
again the tenders will be floated in the market to buy meters. When the order booking from
the SEBs has also started, from system integrators to people like us has also started. And
Genus plays both the roles that of system integrator and also a major supplier also. So we
are getting orders from both the works.

We have been maintaining this in the past also that we have enough capacity to take care of the requirements and enhancement of capacity for a company like Genus
because they are so well vertically integrated - currently we have a capacity of 10 million
meters to 12 million meters annually, and to reach to the level of 16 million to 20 million
meters annually, it is a matter of three to six months. So what I believe is from the next
calendar year onwards, we should be in a position where we are able to do 100% capacity
utilization, and then we can add on to our capacities. So thus we have planned internally
from May, June onwards looking into the way the industry is moving, we will start working
on our capacity expansion if required


I agree to the above. Management has been conservative and upfront about the opportunity, their excitement about the new opportunity and the capacity that they have to support the ensuing opportunity. It is our call as investors on how much certainty do we want before we get in. Also, not only Genus, these big announcements from most of the companies are generally known in advance to key participants/players in the market as information leaks through the system.




Similar trend of results continue. Metering revenue has de-grown Q-o-Q and EBIT has degrown slightly from 9.1% to 8.9% Q-o-Q. Cash generation continues to be poor.


Presentation -

Order book net of taxes - 1908 Cr
Bullish commentary continues w.r.t. smart metering industry under the RRPDSS scheme
Re-iterates that semiconductor supply for FY23 is secured and FY23 Q1 onwards revenues should see a significant jump

Stage is set, now let’s see how well promises turn into results in Q1.

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If you check last concall, management said Q4 FY 22 will be better than last quarter and next would be better than this quarter on margins due to better capacity utilization. If you analyze the results, margins have not improved at all as sales were lower than last quarter. Entire incremental profit as compared to last quarter (+5 Cr on PBT level) is coming from other income +5.8 Cr and lower finance cost (-1.5Cr).

So we need to see if this is due to further semiconductor shortages due to Russia war and if so, what happens to semiconductor supply assurance for FY 23 due to this changed situation?

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QoQ improvement ( atleast expected topline)was a key miss per last Qtr concall guidance, been a hope story, difficult to trust mgmt guidance. Narrative vs delivery has some gaps as of now.