Genus Power - Smart Metering

Company had earnings concall today for their Q3 results. Q3 results are pretty much same as the few quarters prior - flattish revenue with 10% EBITDA.

  • Company continues to highlight semiconductor shortage as reason for low volumes and capacity utilization. Says supplies should normalize from Feb 2022
  • Company guides for QOQ growth in Q4 in revenue
  • Outstanding order book is worth 1100Cr, with 90% orders pertaining to smart meters. 75% of order book is on revised, higher pricing where as 25% is legacy
  • Company expects smart meters to comprise 85-90% of future orders
  • Company says Q3 FY23 onwards their demand should be back to pre-Covid levels. They will assess capacity expansion requirements in Q2 FY23
  • Company maintains its original guidance of 1200Cr + revenue and 16% EBITDA in FY23

Holding a small position. Waiting for positive triggers to add to position.

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Genus stock seems to be on a tear since the budget. Since there is no news or announcements by the company, I am assuming this is on the back of the Budget increasing customs duty on imports of smart meters and circuit boards for smart meters and mentioning a push for smart meter adoption by 2025.

I think Chinese smart meters were anyway not a threat to Indian manufacturers as Genus has mentioned in its calls earlier that Govt procurers have a preference (And probably a mandate) to not buy Chinese smart meters. Market behaves funnily sometimes. The hiking of BCD is unlikely to change the fundamentals of Genus power, but I guess the news has suddenly made the stock “interesting” and has improved its discovery.

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Genus looks like a turn around story. Following covers main points and also talks about competitive landscape.

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Earnings Call Transcript - Q3/FY22

Industry

  • Currently our industry size hovers around Rs. 3,000 Crores to 3,500 Crores mostly if you see last four five financial years. I am confident that this industry size will go up by two to three times at least
  • Standard Bid Document
    • SBD is designed by the MOP (Ministry of Power), in consultation with the industry and stakeholders from SEBs.
    • Nowadays mostly the tenders which are coming in the market are according to this SBD. Not a single tender is there which is beyond SBD nowadays
    • One good thing was that they now proposed in the SBD the billing and even the bill generation can be taken care by the system integrator. So the emphasis is very clear that bill generation and even to an extent in some of the state electricity boards, they are talking that even the bill collection can be done automatically using this prepayment meters - so that the system integrator money is even more secured
  • DPRs
    • By 31st October 2021 the DPRs were to be submitted which got extended up to 31st December 2021.Almost all the states Discoms, almost everybody have given DPRs on time. Again, some meetings happened between MOP and state utilities, individual SEBs, lot of meetings are going on, on decision of these SBDs - so things are in the right direction

Genus Strategy

  • Genus has a very flexible approach. We are working with system integrators as their suppliers and we are also doing some of the projects directly as system integrators
    • in Andhra we are working with the system integrator - we were very clear that we are not putting the application
    • In Assam we quoted directly also and EESL also quoted. And EESL is using our meters in the bid
    • the case of Jharkhand where we became the L1 and where we have got the order, it is not only on the lowest price, it is also on the quality cost-based system
  • we will not be taking too much of leverage on our balance sheet.

R&D and Competition

  • We have almost 300 engineers in the R&D
  • people have to understand is that smart meters, will never become a commodity. Reason being it is an electronic product which has an electrical application plus the reliability of this product has to be such as there is no electronic product in the world it has to work 24/7, full time. A lot of application software has been added because of the smart end-to-end solutions being provided. So that is where the R&D brings in a lot of customization, a lot of solution that gives the edge to companies like us
    • We are currently working in Jaipur, what we have seen in Jaipur, is we are using all the technologies, in some places we are using others for communicating, in some places they are using GPRS. Genus has the capability looking to the condition of the geography, because we are vertically integrated, we have our own design. We are not dependent on others for design of the product
  • Currently Genus is the only company which is providing end-to-end solutions. I do not say that others are not capable of providing that - but they are still little behind us in providing end-to-end solutions in the current state of affairs
  • if you want to compare with Schneider we are much more vertically integrated in comparison to Schneider. I do not say that these are not good companies. They are all very good companies. There is competition, but currently when it comes to smart meters, we have an edge over them.

Raw Materials

  • 60% is the raw material cost. of that 60%, 30% to 35% is the imported cost
  • all the contracts in metering industry has always been fixed price contracts. There is no price escalation clause in the bidding. I do not see that happening also

Capacity

  • Capacity utilization is around 40% to 50% in the current times due to the shortage of raw material
  • currently we have a capacity of 10 million meters to 12 million meters annually, and to reach to the level of 16 million to 20 million meters annually, it is a matter of three to six months
  • we have planned internally from May, June onwards looking into the way the industry is moving, we will start working on our capacity expansion if required

Order Book/Tender Pipeline

  • The tenders are highest ever historically
  • almost Rs. 13,000 Crores tender which are in the pipeline out of which almost Rs. 1,800 Crores has been quoted and Rs. 7,000 crore tenders will be quoted in the next two to three months
  • Order Book
    • around Rs. 1,161 Crores. around Rs. 156 Crores is from exports
    • 90% is smart meters, remaining 10% is conventional.
    • Hardly 15% - 20% are legacy orders

Forward Looking

  • Every quarter you will see an improvement in margins and the capacity utilization. From third quarter of next financial year, we will be at a better level. Normal level we will reach by second quarter of next financial year in margins also and revenue also. And from third quarter of next financial year you will see growth in margins and revenue both as compared to pre-COVID levels
  • we maintain our revenue and EBITDA guidance for FY2023 - we expect revenue of Rs. 1,200 crore plus in next financial year
  • By Q3 or Q4 of FY23, once we reach the normal pre-COVID level, we expect our EBITDA to be in the range of 16% to 18%, it will be at the pre-COVID levels or even better
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Genus is incorporating a subsidiary for solution provider of smart metering under the name Genus Power Solutions. Could this signal the fact that they have started receiving some of the much anticipated AMISP orders under the new scheme?

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With this step, one perceived CG issue should be dealt with, so far mgmt is walking the talk by demerging the non relevant biz.

They indicated QoQ improvement and delivered in last 2 Qtrs, Q4 is supposed to be better than Q3, and FY 23 guidance is 1300 cr+ revenue. Near 1100 cr order book in hand.

Current focus area is Smart meter as supplier to OEM and Integrated solutions provider bids as well.

Commodity prices aren’t easing but hopefully all new wins post Q2 are indexed accordingly as indicated by mgmt. With inflation arresting steps by all central banks, downward trend of prices should.d help them in med term( headwinds onvert to tailwinds).

Key monitorable will be working capital, semiconductor chip supply normalcy, Increasing order book, debt profile, execution aligned to guidance.

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Yes, the results are yet to be declared though. But pretty sure, the motions will pass.

I was going through the Q3 concall and investor presentation of HPL, Genus’s only other listed counterpart in smart metering.

Some excerpts:

Highlights semiconductor issues and similar to Genus guidance, has said that semiconductor supplies are likely to start easing from Q2 FY23. Interesting point to note - HPL has consistently had higher EBIT margins in the metering business (15%+) over the years compared to Genus which has had 300-400bps lower EBIT margins. Does anybody know the reason for this? Are they significantly more backward
integrated wrt raw materials?

Also sound very bullish about upcoming tenders - 10000Cr tender value upcoming as per them.

Say they command 20-25% market share in conventional meters and are looking to increase this % market share for smart meters. Genus has to be on its toes.

Smart meter capacity almost same as Genus, 11mn.

EBIT numbers are much better than Genus. This is a cause for concern for a new investor like me. Need to get to the depth of the reason for this big difference in margins. How is the market leader not commanding the best margins?

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HPL

Genus

Answer on margins differences probably lies in

  • Who gets most hit by negative operating leverage - Genus doesn’t have any other products like HPL and thus Q1 21 and Q1 22 was affected more adversely.
  • Also another qualitative aspect might be at play - Genus has done majority of current smart meter base install in India, per mgmt own admissions these wins had no provisions of cost pass through and hit them in last 3 qtrs - cost of aggression in inflationary environment- such orders should be over by Q4 per last concall

Other inferences

  • Pre corona both had similar margins profile approx 14%
  • Q2, Q3, Q4 both benefited from low cost inventory and delivered higher margin > 16%
  • HPL will have advantages in sub optimal utilization due to other product lines, Genus will likely do better in peak utilization cases
  • Unless sector demand exceeds supply - margins will be around mid/high teens, Genus has more at stake and may be aggressive than others( to see if at cost of margins)

Good point about operating leverage but let’s see if data actually bears out that position or not. Refer below for margin and capacity utilization comparison of Genus and HPL metering division since FY16.

Note:

  1. For capacity utilization, I have considered the highest revenue year for the two companies as peak capacity. For ex, for Genus that is FY20 sales and for HPL that is FY19 sales. Therefore, capacity utilization is calculated as FY sales/Peak Sales
  2. Gross margins for HPL are at company level, since metering business level gross margins are not available

As you can see, the margin difference has always been there, in up years and down years. On an average HPL metering business has had 450 bps better EBIT % compared to Genus. This holds even in years when both companies have operated at 100% capacity utilization e.g. FY19 where HPL EBIT is 500 bps higher than Genus EBIT.

For Genus, if you look at FY17 and FY22, both years have had similar gross margins and capacity utilizations. Yet the EBIT margin is wildly different. One cause I could find was that employee cost as % of revenue was 12% in FY17 whereas its at 16% for FY22. In fact, compared to employee costs of 85Cr in FY21, for 9M FY22, Genus is on a run rate of 107Cr employee costs this year. That’s a whopping 26% hike in employee costs in 1 year. I suspect this is because of software engineering hiring for FMS services, but management needs to be questioned on this for sure.

If I get a chance, I will definitely ask Genus about lower margins compared to their listed peer and also hike in employee costs. Its important to understand the reason for these differences to stick with or update the thesis.

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Observation on employee cost dent is visible from Q1 22 onwards, where cost jumped to 26 cr/Qtr from sub 21 cr runrate in FY 21. And yes Software unit would likely be sizable part here (hiring+ increments).

Genus biz quality was visible with higher margins in FY 21 barring Q1, Genus Q4 21 and Q3 22 have similar topline but OPM is down from 21% to 11% - 5% each hit in material and employee cost.

Business need two levers to normalize - higher capacity utilization, tapering off of current old price commitment ( tenders won at lower material prices). Sequential improvement expected on both fronts.

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I would like to add an interesting document that gives an overall picture of the power sector in India- https://www.niti.gov.in/sites/default/files/2021-08/Electricity-Distribution-Report_030821.pdf

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The company cleared the ATH made over the last 3 years today with heavy volumes. If we look at the charts it seems to have some rounding formation and clear breakout from those levels. Maybe some experts can comment on the same.

Fundamentally, the company is an interesting play on the smart metering opportunity, which “hopefully” will unfold in FY 23 and FY 24. The opportunity being talked about are in excess of 10000 Cr over next 2-3 years. They have had ~25% market share in this industry. If they maintain that, then they would be able to double the turnover over the next 1-2 years with significant rise in profitability. Management has been guiding on optimistic FY23 and order flow, which need to materialize for the stock to do well.
Risks: Biggest risk is delay in order finalization/implementation by state government. Also company is planning to do Turnkey model for installation + Meter + Service also. That would be more capital intensive and will carry higher risk.
Thanks.
Nikhil
Disc: Invested

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What i wonder - If it is 10K cr opportunity, then competition would start creeping in from electrical component manufacturers could backward or forward integrate. Are there development on the potential competitors

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Last Concal Extracts:

Capacity utilization is around 40% to 50% in the current times due to the shortage of raw material and what we feel the way we have done the planning in last two quarters and the
way that things are getting normal every day - by the end of June I would say second quarter of the next financial year capacity utilization will start getting better, will start
reaching the normalized phase from July end. Once the capacity utilization gets normalized
the margins will also get better than previous levels but it will be from Q3 or Q4.

**The tenders are highest ever historically.**So if I talk of as on date, , we have almost Rs.
13,000 Crores tender which are in the pipeline out of which almost Rs. 1,800 Crores has
been quoted and Rs. 7,000 crore tenders will be quoted in the next two to three months. And
even the order pipeline if you see the industry wise, like we got some orders from
Jharkhand, from private utilities, we have got some good order booking in last quarter and
this quarter also order booking will have some good numbers. Same way the industry wide
also you will see very good order booking. Otherwise also like EESL, they got an order of
Rs. 600 Crores from Assam. So now they have come out with a tender in the market where
they will buy meters. So order booking has also started from the State Electricity Boards to
system integrators like IntelliSmart. InAndhra Pradesh AP Board have given orders, so
again the tenders will be floated in the market to buy meters. When the order booking from
the SEBs has also started, from system integrators to people like us has also started. And
Genus plays both the roles that of system integrator and also a major supplier also. So we
are getting orders from both the works.

We have been maintaining this in the past also that we have enough capacity to take care of the requirements and enhancement of capacity for a company like Genus
because they are so well vertically integrated - currently we have a capacity of 10 million
meters to 12 million meters annually, and to reach to the level of 16 million to 20 million
meters annually, it is a matter of three to six months. So what I believe is from the next
calendar year onwards, we should be in a position where we are able to do 100% capacity
utilization, and then we can add on to our capacities. So thus we have planned internally
from May, June onwards looking into the way the industry is moving, we will start working
on our capacity expansion if required

According to the bid, according to our need of the bid we are making the participation. Like
in Andhra we are working with the system integrator - we were very clear that we are not
putting the application. In Assam we quoted directly also and EESL also quoted. And EESL
is using our meters in the bid. So all kinds of strategies are being worked out in the market.Genus has a very flexible approach. We are working with system integrators as their
suppliers and we are also doing some of the projects directly as system integrators.

Mohit Kumar: How is the competition in the system? Has it increased? Is it increasing given the expected
large opportunity - of course it had not materialized as of now but FY2023 could be a very,
very big year for the entire industry?
Jitendra Agarwal: Competition will always be there. It is the important part is how well you are prepared for
the competition and fortunately Genus is sitting in the sweet spot where we are prepared
ourselves and also are very well prepared to take onslaught of any kind of competition.

Vishal Prasad: Thank you. Good afternoon. I have a few questions. I understand we have not won any
orders in capex plus opex model up till now. But Sir could you probably spend two minutes
to explain the modalities of the contract, the capex plus opex, how does it work and how
does the payment works, how are the capabilities of different vendors is taken into
consideration while giving the contract?
Jitendra Agarwal: The capex model is very simple - mostly as a system integrator we have to bid of per meter
per month and this we have to maintain for ten years. 2 to 2.5 years are given for the
installation, and 7.5 to 8 years are given for the maintenance. So total for ten years the
whole project will be under the system integrator, where the system integrator will do the
end-to-end job from installation of meters to maintaining the daily SMS, monthly SMS and
quarterly SMS, everything will be done by the system integrator. SMS means service level
agreement which will be done between the electricity boards and the system integrators and
mostly the system integrator will be paid by per meter per month. So this is how the whole
system will work – not only from the meter reading, billing and in some cases they are
even talking of collection - everything is managed by the system integrator. So the end-toend solution of metering will be taken care by the system integrators, which is EESL is
doing currently… So this is how the whole system is going to work.

Vishal Prasad: Last question if we have to compare our capabilities in software with our competitors so let
us say for example L&T sold it to one of the multinationals - so could you elaborate on
what are the advantages that we have with respect to our multinational competitors and
what are the areas where we are lacking and we will still have to catch up?
Jitendra Agarwal: Currently Genus is the only company which is providing end-to-end solutions. I do not say
that others are not capable of providing that - but they are still little behind us in providing
end-to-end solutions in the current state of affairs and we are probably the only company
which is working in all the communication spheres. So I think technically if you want to
compare with Schneider we are much more vertically integrated in comparison to
Schneider. I do not say that these are not good companies. They are all very good
companies. There is competition, but currently when it comes to smart meters, we have an
edge over them.

Nikhil Jain: Second thing is that in one of the earlier calls you suggested that there are something like 90
to 100 people who are working in the R&D side, who are working in doing the
development work for the smart meter. So if you can just give a little more idea about what
they actually do and what is the value add that is coming in from there? How is it different
from let us say a commodity kind of a product right that’s available off the shelf so based on
the work that the team is doing? So if you can just give some perspective that will be very
helpful? Thank you.

Jitendra Agarwal: Meter being a very custom-built product, it needs a lot of customization according to the
customer requirement. Just to give you a simple example like in doing a smart meter project
in a city like Jaipur, the end customer is concerned about the SLA (service level agreement).
He is not much concerned that how we are going to get to the data. So for him the most
important is to meet the SLA. We are currently working in Jaipur, what we have seen in
Jaipur, is we are using all the technologies, in some places we are using others for
communicating, in some places they are using GPRS. Genus has the capability looking to
the condition of the geography, because we are vertically integrated, we have our own
design. We are not dependent on others for design of the product. We have almost 300
engineers in the R&D (not just 90 to 100) just to give you a perspective - we are very solid
in terms of R&D. And it is not only when we talk about smart meters, it is not only about
hardware, there is a lot of embedded software, which goes into this. It is the only electronic
product in the world which has an electrical application. This is where people have to
understand is that smart meters meters, will never become a commodity and I am confident.

Strong tailwind for the Company and it seems that the Smart meter business is at an inflection point.

Disclosure : Invested at levels of 90.

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Based on the report of Niti that I have quoted above, some of observations that I want to share are as follows-
a) State discoms are still unsure whether electricity is a commodity or a social upliftment tool. The later thought seems to dominate as the Discoms are facing a loss of 90000 cr annually.
b) The smart meters are expensive and have a low life as compared to the conventional ones.
c) Very few states have shown interest in opting for smart metering.
d) Many loss-making discoms are unable to invest in the upgradation and maintenance
of their equipment due to lack of resources.
e) According to data provided by Smart Metering Status | National Smart Grid Mission, Ministry of Power, Government of India, Genus in association with other companies are supplying smart meter majorly to the following states - UP, Rajasthan, Haryana, Bihar and the total installation is 8122943. Clearly it is the leader in smart metering.
f) But lack of profitability for Discoms may delay the payment which may lead to debt trap for genus, as it is solely depending on smart metering.
g) Regarding the chart, the sudden spike in volume is not supported by any big announcements. Rather a recent news - A Surprise Hurdle For India's Smart Meter Plans | Mint is a point of caution. So this spike may be a trader’s trap.

Others may pl comment.

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Implementation of any Govt mega scheme has a challenge of its own and is also a time taking process.
However as per the article that there is an entry barrier for the supply of meters…“The ministry further said, “Only those bidders would be considered and evaluated in the Bids that have effectively demonstrated an end-to-end prepaid Smart Metering solution.” PFC and REC are nodal agencies implementing RDSS, which has a compulsory smart metering ecosystem component."

Genus Power is dedicated player with an end to end solution and has been in this industry for last several decades, any new player would not easily venture into such govt projects.

image

Management clarified that payment is secured and not a problem for future order. you can refer previous concall also.

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Massive order of 828 Cr received by Genus.

Disappointed with Corp Governance. Clearly insiders had this info in advance and bid up the price to these levels in the last 2 weeks. minority shareholders left without an opportunity to increase their holding size.

Great news for the business but very disappointing for an investor who has done all his homework and is waiting for triggers to increase position size.

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  • Validation of opportunity size - 800 cr for 10L meters( inclusive services/ FMS)
  • Per govt policy push, targets being 25 cr in few years, let’s say 10 Cr meters is more realistic ( per Genus own admissions as well) - it’s 80000 cr opportunity size end to end.

Obviously this will be spread over multi year( for simplicity lets say 8 -10 years), 8000-10000 cr per year possibilities exists for 10 cr meters over next decade, next set of 15 cr meters will also eventually come in and energy infra environment can’t be more conducive( barring commodity pressure).

Overall 160000 to 200000 cr market size over next decade+. What Genus can do without breaking balance sheet needs to be seen - they can probably to a 1500-2000 cr/yr type runrate to start with( past order book 1100 cr+ to be executed in 1.5 yr, 800 cr current order but this one longer duration distributed, some exports as well), 70:30 mix( meters mfg: meters + FMS), margins is a big question in near term but assume 15%+ would be doable over med term. Things will evolve as we go.

This is where execution capabilities takes over vs opportunity size worry. Inflection point for industry. Not a crowded place at present, Genus, HPL, secure meters, Schneider- Genus seem to be aggressive clearly, commentary key from mgmt.

One recent positive on Genus front has been demerger of un related Infra biz on CG part, opportunity to improve corporate governance ahead. However this is something only time will tell, we need to look out for signs.

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