Forensics and the art of triangulation

This not unusal. I have this in one of board meeting of Care Rating as well. If meeting is called at 9 pm, then it can easily carry for 4 to 5 hours, which mean it conclude on 1 am or 2 am on next day. The key piece in such case is it now when meeting begin? In Bank and credit rating and also some other industry, Board take many decision about finance, policies in which case detailed discussion easily go over 7-8 hours in my view, and that is fine. It would also depend on business of board meet. In case the board discuss acquisition or sell of division, in case of healthy board, one shall expected detailed disucssion which can easily extend for long period. So per se, extending board meeting over two days is not negative in my view. However, it shall also depend on agenda. Certain time, even simple business like approving financial with Ind-AS or new accouting standard along with explanation of new policy and impact can also lead to healthy disucssion, in case board members are really invovled and concen for the company. However for small company like the name you shared, one need to understand which item resulted in such long discussion?

One red flag for me is a nominal dividend of 10 paise or 5paise when Eps is more than Rs 3. I would be very cautious for such companies.

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Kindly feel free to flag if this post is out of sync.

I was trying to understand the results of this company but could not gauge it, so felt boarders might help.

Company had sales to the tune of 44 Cr in FY 23.
No employee cost.
No raw material cost.
Inventories at March 2022 were 5 Cr.

How to read it ?
e19fe5f7-2623-40dd-a76f-f052468102e7.pdf (4.1 MB)

An interesting observation.

27-07-2023
Welspun Enterprises announced acquisition of 50.1% stake in Michigan - an EPC company for 137 Cr., valuing the entire company 274 Cr.

25-05-2023
Another listed company - Authum acquired 47% stake in MICHIGAN for 80 Cr, valuing the entire company at 171 Cr. The transaction was going to be completed in four weeks.

Authum is selling 36% out of its 47% stake for 98 Cr.

Valuation of MICHIGAN increased by 60% in two months.

Who says that bull market is only in listed space.

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Adding to the curious case of Nibe Limited .

What got me excited to even research on this company was the fact that it was in the Defense Sector and as with the case with any micro cap companies in the space it is a black box but I strongly believed that the markets know something which I do not considering its astronomical rise in the market priceā€¦

My intention of writing this post is to post the facts which I have collected on this is micro - cap company

Background

  • 2005 - Incorporated as Kavita Fabrics Private Limited in the business of textiles

  • 2012 - IPO of the Company ( DRHP ) . Promoters Mr. Harish Chandak, Mr. Shailesh Chandak, Mrs. Sarika Chandak
    and Mrs. Sudha Chandak . As per the DRHP company was owning 36 jacquard power
    looms back in 2012

  • 2012- 2019 : Revenues recorded a peak of maximum 11 cr in 2015 and dropped to 2cr in 2018-19 as per Screener . Share price languished between Rs.13 to Rs.6 in the same period . Mr Ganesh Nibe acquired approx 22% in the company from the open markets during the period

  • 2019 : Mr Ganesh Nibe along with wife Mrs. Manjusha Nibe acquired the entire promoter stake in the erstwhile company Kavita Textiles from the Promoter Group.
    Refer Link

Networth of Mr Ganesh Nibe as of March 2019: Rs.17.54 Cr
Networth of Mrs Manusha Nibe as of March 2019 : Rs.5.21 Cr

  • 2020 : Company renamed to Nibe Limited . Nibe Limited transformed itself into a proclaimed business of Precision Fabrication for Defence Production, Electrical Vehicles and BVM RC&F , The share price continued to increase from 2021 till date with corresponding increase in the Revenues but CFO still being negative

The thing which looked too good to believe was that how did a company which was just shifting itself from Textiles and now transitioning to Defense industry was so quick to gain into the Defense space which is one of the most dificult industries to break into

  • 2022 The company share price rose from Rs. 6 in 2019 to Rs. 300 per share but unfortunately the Mr. Ganesh Nibe and his family members are defaulting on loans and their properties are being attached by the Union Bank . Refer Business Standard article dtd 12th Dec 2022 .

The ironical thing is the apartment 402 Violet Dream Citi, Nashik referenced in 2019 link where Mr Ganesh Nibe & Mrs. Manjusha Nibe are living is also attached in the E-Auction of the property. It is extremely surprising that a promoter whose business was flourishing has his residential house auctioned along with multiple other properties.

  • 2023
    Jan : Preferential Issue at Rs. 365
    September: Preferential Issue at Rs. 510
    August : Resignation of Mrs Manjusha Nibe from WTD ( Ironically Resignation letter still references the Violet Dream Citi Apartment as her address )
    August : Resignation of Statutory Auditors ( Appointed in 2022 for a term of 5 years ending 2027. Resigned in 2023 )
    Oct : Resignation of Senior Management ( Mr. Vishnoo K Prathap Chief Innovation Officer
    / Mrs. Jasleen Kaur Arora Head SCM )
    Oct : Resignation of CEO ( Mr. Sachin Raosaheb Shinde ) . New CEO Mr. Balakrishnan Swamy in the appointment letter states as a person with rich background in aerospace with experience at Boeing, USA, and as a Founder in defense systems manufacturing . Refer Linkedin bio
    Nov : Anshuni Commercials Limited into gems & jwellery acquired by Mr Ganesh Nibe , Mrs Manjusha Nibe & Nibe Limited. ( Whether they would follow the same fate as Kavitha Textiles ? )
    Dec : Resignation of Company Secretary Priya Pandey

Additional Fun Fact

Nibe Defense and Aerospace Office in Defense Tech Park in Bangalore from Google Images . Look at the the logo

Things which do not align with the rest of the story

Rishikesh Doijode as CTO of Nibe Defense and Aerospace

Knowledge Partner of Maharashtra MSME Expo for 2024 . Money and politcal connections can buy anything

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Navy chief inauguration of nibe factory.

Not great company, given current valuation too, but property auction can happen when people use them as investment. HDFC guys say so, that when property trends down, people prefer to lose their few instalments paid and foreclosure happens.

Looks like this nibe guy had a good defence tender business and just wanted to get onto stock market rather than go for IPO. The APL apollo favourite way.

Disc: not invested

What justifies the following events

2023

August : Resignation of Mrs Manjusha Nibe from WTD ( Ironically Resignation letter still references the Violet Dream Citi Apartment as her address )
August : Resignation of Statutory Auditors ( Appointed in 2022 for a term of 5 years ending 2027. Resigned in 2023 )
Oct : Resignation of Senior Management ( Mr. Vishnoo K Prathap Chief Innovation Officer
/ Mrs. Jasleen Kaur Arora Head SCM )
Oct : Resignation of CEO ( Mr. Sachin Raosaheb Shinde ) . New CEO Mr. Balakrishnan Swamy in the appointment letter states as a person with rich background in aerospace with experience at Boeing, USA, and as a Founder in defense systems manufacturing . Refer Linkedin bio
Dec : Resignation of Company Secretary Priya Pandey

The strange part is before 2019 Mr Ganesh Nibe has no records available to show he has ever been linked to any defense businesses or any similar business interests. Infact he has been only involved in Electrical Business and Real Estate business based out of Nashik Shrinivas Electricals GTD Pvt. Ltd., Nashik - Manufacturer of software development services and Automation Software Applications prior to 2018-19

He jumped on the E-Vehicle Trading business in 2018-19 and this was the first time it seems that there a some politcal connections involved as Mr Suresh Prabhu was there at the event https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CDloW_nO0Ts . It could either be a coincidence or some political favor.

The Chief Innovation Officer Mr. K Vishnoo Prathap who resigned Nibe in just 5 months was previously Deputy Program Director at iDEX - Defense Innovation Organization (DIO) DDP, Ministry of Defense for over 2.5 years. When such a KMP leaves the company in just 5 months of joining says a lot about the state of the company .

The Admiral is in Pune for the Maharashtra Defense Expo 2024 and not for Nibe . As a Knowledge Partner , Nibe would have approached them for the inauguration just as a PR stunt is my view. Even in the article linked above , the admiral makes only a couple of general statements about the facility and role of having automation & machinery .

A couple of more interesting facts,

  • Nibe Defense and Aerospace office in hi tech defense and aerospace park Bangalore is located where companies have setup manufacturing units. Check Nibe office size ( which is a corporate office instead of manufacturing ) in comparison to some of the other Defense companies in the same area

In addition , check the 360Ā° street view from Google . It clear states Nibe Defense & Aerospace building was available on Lease in June 2022 from AZ Leasing Solution. The questions which arise is whether Nibe has taken the entire on lease or just a single floor or even lesser space ? What is the rationale of setting up a corporate office in a Defense and Aerospace park where other players are setting up manufacturing units ?

Unfortunately, as investors are getting smarter even the ways in which these organized groups involved in pumping and dumping the stock prices are getting smarter day by day

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I call it ā€œfront running government policyā€ tribe ā€¦ā€¦
Such examples can be found in all domains where government policy initiatives happenā€¦

Be it Travel and Tentsā€¦
Be it EV buses and Bright Steelā€¦ā€¦
Roads and Contractors etc

Just to add to your extensive research

He is turning around another company if we would like to benefit from his expertise.

Anshuni Coomercials Limited.

Regards

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Can someone please help on Likhita Infra. I note that company has no debt but numbers look very stable. Any accountant help please to understand standalone accounts (consolidated and standalone basis revenues and total balance sheet does not look very different).

On screener.in - Standalone accounts: Cash conversion cycle seems to be 500 days, I do not see any customer advances. Just wondering how company is able to manage the operations without debt? cash on the books also keeps increasing. Any insights shall be helpful.


Source: screener.in

Agree with your analysis, great effort! :100:
Though company may do well (or may not?), there are far too many red flags for comfort. Especially with thin margin of safety, currently much closer to dumping zone than the pumping zone.

The discouraging points I see are:

  1. Basic metal fabrication work centered around missile launch canister and frame assembly, and application of primer coating on ship metal sheet. Trading in electric vehicles. Nothing great.

  2. Quality of and rapid turnover in key management, auditor etc.

  3. Political connections are bittersweet, it means you donā€™t have any competitive edge in your product but depend on patronage. Like reliance xyz co getting contract for making rafale aircraft.

  4. May make money while the sun shines, but donā€™t trust a promoter quality whoā€™s background is speculation in property etc. Donā€™t expect to be fair to us minority shareholders.

Disclaimer : this is not investment advice, I am not a sebi registered investment advisor please do your due diligence before investing.

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Is there a prior art of siphoning money from the public listed company to promoter owned entity via join venture where one half is a private entity and brings nothing to the public listed business?

This sounds like a easy way to take off the profits without committing any ā€œfraudā€.
Case in point - Lancer Containers - #48 by Nimit

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Highlights and notes from the conference call that raised concerns.

Opening remarks

The CEO repeatedly emphasizes that they manufacture a ā€œmission-critical,ā€ ā€œlife-criticalā€ product for turbines operating at 30,000 feet, making India proud or proudly manufactured in India. He concludes by suggesting that the current financials/profitability might appear deceptively inexpensive and shouldnā€™t be over-interpreted.


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Remember the movie Drishyam?


Drishyam meme| 'Yaad hai na 2 October ko Vijay aur uski ...

Illusion of truth?


Analyst Q&A:This is where things start to get interesting

The CFO was asked about Gross Margin, but he repeatedly discussed EBITDA margin. Even the comments on EBITDA lacked substance.


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This is really odd: Why would an analyst/investor act like an appointed cheerleader? And yet again, the promoter seizes the opportunity to reinforce the Halo effect.


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Cheerleading continues: Creating an illusion/hope by drawing parallels with the best in business. Moreover, promoter continues bragging (and needless mentions of its relation to India) to fuel the availability heuristic and establish correlation where none exists.


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Oddness continues: Vague response to a sensible question from Ashish Kacholiaā€™s team


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Tall claim, isnā€™t it?


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Batliboi - What promoter has in the bottle (mind) ?

Sequence of events:

  1. Announced amalgamation with another promoter firm with share swap

BSE observed meger would lead to promoter holding to 82%

  1. Preferential allotment to non promoter investors which include Authum and Quantum family office

This reduced promoter stake from 74.06% to 61.88%

  1. Merger which again increased the promoter stake in the combined entity to 72.07%.

The question is -

Did these investors see hidden potential in the merged entity or
Is it a quid pro quo with assured IRR ?

Disc - invested from lower level

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Investors lost almost 99% of their wealth in Brightcom Group and Varanium. So some thoughts on mistakesā€¦!

Investing Lessons from Fraud at Brightcom & Varanium Cloud

  1. Caution on small companies making big promises on hot new biz (AI, ML etc) where they donā€™t have experience and resources.

  2. Stocks are discussed too much on social media by a particular set of people might have an interest in the stock thatā€™s why you are seeing one-sided updates (only positive) of the company

  3. Donā€™t just buy because some big investor has bought (his/ her allocation could be less than 1% and your allocation going beyond 40% -60% is scary). They can also go wrong.

  4. Low PE does not mean its undervalued.

  5. Doing biz or most biz via foreign subsidiaries is the big problem. BCG have zero focus on India but for its peers India is big market. How can media tech company India could not be big market?? does not make sense

  6. Donā€™t fall for it just because Index Funds are buying.

  7. Donā€™t believe blindly what everything management is saying. BCG lied about its management in Investor PPt itself.

  8. Try to connect dotsā€¦ if so many negatives or fishy things better to avoid them.

  9. Donā€™t catch falling knife

  10. Explosive Growth in P&L without underlying growth in Cash Flows and BS is another disaster.

  11. Frequent resignations in KMPs and Auditors is another recipe for disaster.

  12. Selling visions and guidance via press releases does not give confidence.

  13. Signing MoUs, and deals with unknown companies might be fancy but just on paper.

  14. Promoters are selling, just accept it. Donā€™t try to neglect other stories like fundraising ki vajah se holding kam hua ya SHP mai error hai.

  15. Background of KMPs if looks fishy avoid it.

  16. The degree and the impact of governance issues needs to be check on overall business and fundamentals. Can ignore if small ā€¦

  17. Rise of retail participation in a stock could be another sign of storified stock

  18. Asset Allocation is very important, donā€™t buy the multi-bagger stocks on day 1. Mutlibagger Stocks takes years to create Multibagger Wealthā€¦

Kindly maximise the reach of this to save investors ā€¦!

Remember two golden rules

A. Capital Protection is much more important than Capital Appreciation
B. Read Business, Not Stock Prices

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I believe itā€™s the issue with the formula in the Screener. In Screener formula for DIO is ā€˜Annual Inventory / Annual Material Cost * 365ā€™, Looking at Likhita Infraā€™s FS we can see their Inventory is 6,829.81 out of which 6,620.88 is WIP. WIP loaded with other OH so we have to include Cost of materials and Construction exp which adds upto 25,473. If use only the Material cost of 5,844 we would have inflated DIO.

The company came into my attention as multiple twitter handles simultaneously started projecting it as Special Situation.

The company is Himachal Fibres aka Rudra Ecovation.

The company had announced merger with Shiva Texfab - a related company.
Now, company is proposing to invest 150 Cr for 21.46% stake in Shiva Texfab ā†’ Valuing the entire company at approx. 750 odd Cr

As per the information submitted, Shiva Texfab is a textile company which had a turnover of 410 Cr in FY 24 as compared to 504 Cr in FY 23.

What interested me: When the whole is crying for retail investors to invest for once in a life time opportunity, one particular group is continuously selling after making almost 6x in less than 6 months.

As per exchange filings,
Anisha Fincap Consultants LLP and PACs purchased first shares on 24 - 08 - 2023 ā†’ Price was 6.93/-
By 26 - 10 - 2023, they had 7.79% stake.
Allotted 5,00,0000 convertible warrants at an issue price of 10/- on 8 - 11 - 2023. (Share price 19/-)

First selling came on 14 - 12 - 2023: Share price - 31/- (A cool 4.5x in 4 months)

And since then, continuous selling is there whereas price is going up on corporate developments.

There is another round of preferential allotment at 48/- : Another listed company Race Eco Chain is investing for 20,85,000 share / 10 Cr.

This - Race Eco Chain has amazing track record. It had subscribed for 43,50,000 warrants at 13/- in Prime Industries Ltd in April 2023, which will constitute almost 20% stake post conversion. Current share price of Prime Industries is 194/- (Almost 13x)

Both Race Eco Chain and Prime Industries have fixed assets of 2.87 Cr and 0.1 Cr as per September 2023 results and Current MCap of 547 Cr and 307 Cr respectively.

Rudra Eco investors are in good hands with glorious past.

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