CSB BANK - will it become next HDFC Bank?

@manngill thanks, this is a useful way to look at it, and it matches what management said on the Q4 FY26 call: Maarvel could not launch products, the new core went live in May 2025, and the retail and liability push is “starting now”, with the pick-up expected around Q4 FY27 / Q1 FY28.

Two things from the decks, though.

1. It was not a straight decline from 2019. The 28.6% for Dec 2019 is right (Q3 FY20 deck). But CASA then went up to 35.1% by Jun 2022, on the same Maarvel system, and has come down to 19.0% since. So the rise and the fall look more like the rate cycle plus a balance sheet growing much faster than CASA. The old system explains why they could not fight back. I am not sure it explains the fall.

2. Five quarters after go-live, it is still going the other way. From the Q4 FY26 and Q2 FY27 decks (deposits slide):

Sep-25 Sep-26 Change
Total deposits (₹ Cr) 39,651 46,889 +18%
Current accounts (₹ Cr) ~1,749 ~1,928 +10%
Savings accounts (₹ Cr) ~6,646 ~6,961 +5%
CASA ratio 21.17% 18.96%
Bulk share of term deposits 46% 52%

(CA and SA are worked out from the CASA amount × the CA/SA split on the slide.)

Current accounts growing faster than savings fits your wholesale point. But at about ₹1,900 Cr, current accounts are around 4% of deposits, so they cannot move the ratio much yet. Bulk was 43% in Q4 FY25 and is 52% now.

To be fair, management’s own timeline says Q4 FY27, so it is too early to call it. I would keep it simple and check three things over the next three quarters:

  1. CASA growth in rupees vs total deposit growth. CASA has to grow faster than 18% for the ratio to turn.
  2. The current-account balance, if the wholesale and salary-account mandates are real.
  3. The bulk share of term deposits going back below 50%.

If none of these move by Q1 FY28, the technology explanation will need another look.

I put the CASA numbers for 36 banks in one table here, if anyone wants to compare CSB with peers: Indian Banks: Deposit Franchise and CASA