Weak Q1FY25 print on the back of muted disbursements, y-o-y degrowth of 6.6% and increase in gross non-performing assets by 56 basis points to 1.46%.
Management sounded optimistic of its full year guidance despite Q1 weakness, however, it remains to be seen how growth picks up in the coming quarters.
Trying to make sense of recent news, whether the owner exit will be a overhang wrt valuations and becomes a value trap in near term.
As per fundamentals, the stock is available at a best bargain since COVID times. So, it is still attractive from that POV.
As per the owner exit / change, I am trying to build the best and worst case scenarios.
Best case scenario is if is bought by another prominent player with more funds and more reach. Worst case scenario is to be bought over by a player with poor track record of governance / asset quality management. Neutral scenario is to go with status quo.
We can take the owner’s expectation of 15-20% premium as a baseline return in a year’s time.
Contrary to certain media reports, the company has refuted the speculations of a stake sale by the promoter. Currently, the promoter entity of CAGrameen is CreditAccess India, which was an outcome of the vertical demerger at the parent company level.