CONNPLEX CINEMA - A RETAILER WITH NEAR INFINITE RoCE

This is part of the IPO proceeds, I think they explained this in one of the interviews. They want to set up an experience and innovation centre, where they can experiment with different formats and technologies, and showcase constructed versions of these models to potential franchisees.

You can refer to the DRHP or the interview for more information.

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Connplex Cinemas Limited has released its operational update for Q3 FY26 (quarter ended 31 December 2025).

Operational cinemas have increased to 36 from 23 in Q3 FY25 (57% YoY growth)
Operational screens have risen to 96 from 58 (66% YoY growth)
Total seating capacity stands at 8,637 seats compared with 4,525 (91% YoY growth)
Presence across cities has expanded to 27 from 15 (80% YoY growth)
Presence across states has grown to 9 from 6 (50% YoY growth)

Audience metrics :
Admits were 8.28 lakh vs 5.28 lakh last year (57% YoY growth)
Occupancy rate improved to 31% from 21%
Monetisation and operating indicators:
Average Ticket Price (ATP) was ₹270 versus ₹284 in Q3 FY25
Spend Per Head (SPH) increased to ₹94 from ₹85

The company expects to:
Further expand in under-penetrated markets
Drive operating leverage through higher occupancies
Strengthen ancillary revenue streams such as F&B and advertising

In summary, Connplex is demonstrating rapid scale-up, higher footfalls, better occupancy, and improving operating metrics.

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Though the company is scaling up fast, and maintaining great ROCE and even looks like having positive cash flow; it does not look like they have any competitive advantage. I have not been able to discern any. What will happen if PVR or INOX copies the model!

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I don’t think PVR / INOX will move to a FOFO–royalty model.

For them, it’s a 360-degree strategic shift with too much execution effort and too little incremental reward.

More importantly, they aren’t even talking about it. So worrying about it is pointless.

Competitive advantage is execution and first-mover advantage, nothing else, just like in every other retail business.

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Any view on promoter quality? Anyone who has met the promoters or interacted with them?
Any red flags in corporate governance or questionable capital allocation. Community views would be very helpful.

This needs to be monitored over time. It’s too early to make a definitive call, it’s only been five months since listing.

View remains neutral.

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Out of 19,000 postal zones in the country, 16,350 have no cinema screens.

This is market for Connplex.

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It says 38% want lower ticket price and low cost food. Both are not provided by connplex which is a bet on premiumisation trend. Also, it is getting harder to pull crowd to cinemas due to bigger TV and OTTs.

Disc: tracking without position

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1.Yes, 38% of cinema-goers wanting lower ticket and food prices highlights genuine price sensitivity, and OTT plus large-screen home viewing makes audience mobilisation more difficult. Those risks are real, especially for a small and emerging company like Connplex.

2.At the same time, Connplex’s Q3 FY26 operating update shows strong execution: rapid expansion in cinemas, screens, capacity, and presence across cities and states, with admissions up 57% YoY and occupancy improving from 21% to 31%.

3.Average Ticket Price has actually softened (₹284 → ₹270), while Spend Per Head on F&B has increased (₹85 → ₹94), indicating that premium experience plus sensible pricing can coexist.

4.Theatre viewing remains a distinct experiential product; communal viewing, large-format screens, and event movies cannot be fully replicated by OTT or home TV, and Connplex appears to be capturing that segment.

5.Their ability to add new screens at very low incremental capital cost materially improves operating leverage and reduces balance-sheet risk compared to traditional multiplex models.

6.I agree there are risks: small-cap nature, concentration risk, execution dependence, and general industry headwinds. These must be acknowledged.

7.However, the current data suggests that Connplex is scaling rapidly in under-penetrated markets with improving footfalls and monetisation, rather than struggling to attract audiences.

8.An analogy from Prof. Sanjay Bakshi illustrates this well: “The rabbit runs faster than the fox because the fox is running for dinner, but the rabbit is running for its life.” In his example, Colgate was the rabbit and Unilever the fox when competition emerged. Applying the same logic here, Connplex is the rabbit and PVR is the fox — the challenger is hungrier, more focused, and often executes faster.

So, while I fully recognise the risks and price-sensitivity arguments, my view is that Connplex currently looks more like the rabbit — nimble, motivated, and executing — whereas the incumbents are the foxes. Hence, I respectfully agree to disagree.

My views may be biased as I am invested.

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After reading all the posts, I think good business case has been made for an investment in Connplex Cinema. The only thing I worry about is valuations right now. I think its currently priced with high expectations. If this does not go as per market expectations then the stock might take a beating and may be that would present a great opportunity. Having said that I would like to know if anyone has contrary opinion. It would be great if someone can throw some light on valuation.

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Company is trading at ~ 10-13x FY27 P/E, with half of the bottom line as royalties, it’s expanding PAN india, has first-mover advantage and is a consumer business.

I don’t think it’s expensive, but valuation is subjective, so I’ll leave it at that.

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Personally I would have to agree with you but market rarely reacts rationally. No company can have good numbers all the time but yet market behaves like its in some fantasy land where the only way the numbers can behave is to go UP. No business grows linearly and that is as natural as one breathes but yet this fundamental understanding is ignored by markets. They punish the stocks even if some numbers are off the mark. One drop in expected numbers and suddenly the P/E climbs higher and market punishes the stock. In hindsight, it appears what you thought was a bargain price based on forward looking P/E suddenly starts appearing to be expensive.

That leads me to believe best time to invest would be is- when something goes wrong with the company (may be a temporary problem or some numbers missing the estimated targets) and price takes a beating beyond all rationality. Right now all things are going well with the company and its trading at a P/E of 22.

Anyway, this is just my thought process and ofcourse I lay no claims of being right. On the other hand, I also can see merit of those who argue against my case - we cannot get a perfect price and if we pay fair price, we ignore the down movement no matter how significant they are from our purchase price. Even the best of investors see drops of 50%+ and still end up making significant money.

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It’s kind of funny than they had 16 screen ready but not operational on 30th Sep, and only 13 screen were made operational in the last 3 months. who pays rent for these delays. Btw now the Capex of Franchisees has reached to 130 Crs ( tracking closely ), any guesses how much they would have earned in Q3 2025-26 — this is going to be very interesting if someone is open to work on the real data. Last F.Y. the franchisee payout ( from Connplex)

was 19.29 Crs for the Full Year.

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The West Bengal government has rolled out incentives for mini-plexes, including regulatory fast-tracking, faster licensing approvals, technological flexibility, and tax rebates.

Connplex currently has no presence in West Bengal, so this policy could incentivize future expansion in the state.

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Update

Added 2 screens at Patna.
Total: 102 screens
FY26 mix: Express 40 - Signature 34 -Luxuriance 28.

Steady expansion, premium mix improving

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Openings have accelerated post-IPO, and execution so far has been quite decent. I’ve watched videos of both of these new openings.

January has been weak for the industry due to the absence of any major releases, but the lineup improves meaningfully in February and March, with Border 2 releasing tomorrow.

Bihta and Muzaffarpur are Tier-3/4 towns in India’s poorest state of Bihar.

It remains to be seen how occupancies hold up in these markets, but if performance sustains, it would be a very positive signal.

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Can You please clarify the below doubts, just thinking what can fail this model,

  1. Will Franchise pay Connplex properly, will they declare the ticket sales correctly. Does Connplex provide it systems for ticket booking?
  2. Not sure if they hit a road block in expanding or a general market slowness, the EPC revenue will significantly stop reducing the income. this is not a recurring income but a one time income. EPS will fluctuate or fall which will impact the steadiness of the market price
  3. Will there be a period where footfall will be less than 30% due to no good movies?? Prolonged downfall which makes the

What can break this model, this model is too good to be true when they grow?? Will the cost dynamics change if Connplex grow tremendoubsly affecting the operating leverage?

  1. Most of the revenue first flows into Connplex’s bank account. Connplex manages the entire backend, including content, ticketing, F&B systems, branding, and advertising. The portion that flows into the franchisee’s bank account, largely F&B, is shared with Connplex as royalty on a weekly basis.
  2. EPC will gradually become irrelevant beyond 200 screens. Management has guided that post 200 screens, roughly 70% of the bottom line will come from royalties.
  3. Given that this is a content-driven industry, there will inevitably be periods when occupancies drop, even to as low as 5%. That, by itself, is not a concern, what matters is the full-year average occupancy. As long as avg. occupancy stays above ~25% on an annual basis, the business model works. Anything above that is great.
  4. Sustained occupancies below 20% over multiple years could put pressure on the business model.
  5. Cost dynamics may improve with scale due to increased negotiating power with suppliers across seats, projection equipment, F&B sourcing, and advertising. This will create operating leverage over time. A part of these benefits will be passed on to franchisees, so it’s prudent not to factor these gains into current calculations.
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When do you think this will move to mainboard? Lot size is huge detterent for me to invest in this counter. Leaves no room for error

For any SME company to migrate to the mainboard, it requires minimum 2 years of listing history, so after August 2027.

Kindly do not consider this thread as investment advice. SMEs are inherently risky and conditions can change rapidly. What is true today may not hold true tomorrow.

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