CONNPLEX CINEMA - A RETAILER WITH NEAR INFINITE RoCE

CONNPLEX CINEMA

It’s a recently listed cinema chain with a business model that is structurally different from other listed peers.

The company operates smaller-sized multiplexes (Mini-Plexes), which are ideally suited for Tier-2, Tier-3, and Tier-4 cities, markets that large chains like PVR and Inox have largely avoided due to the unsustainable economics of their big-screen, high capex model in smaller towns.

Even in Tier-1 metros, this model fits well because the higher population density supports small-format multiplex economics.

Royalty-Based Business Model

  • All outlets operate on a FOFO model (Franchise-Owned, Franchise-Operated).
  • Capex and Opex for each cinema are funded by the franchisee, while the electronics and projector capex is funded by the company.
  • Connplex charges a 20% royalty on ticket sales, F&B, and advertisement revenues, with the franchisee retaining the remaining 80%.

Additionally, the company provides EPC services for the construction of cinemas (essentially the capex executed on behalf of the franchisee).

This EPC vertical generates one-time revenue with ~30% EBITDA margins, and the profits are used to fund the projector and electronics capex required to drive recurring royalty income

(Readers are advised to refer to the Investor Presentation and conference call available on the stock exchange for detailed business information. In this note, I am restricting the discussion strictly to the unit economics and capex economics of the company.)

It’s an incredibly fascinating business model, so let me walk you through the numbers.

INDEX

  1. PROMOTER’S PROFILE
  2. UNIT ECONOMICS (FRANCHISEE)
  3. CAPEX ECONOMICS (FRANCHISEE)
  4. UNIT ECONOMICS (COMPANY)
  5. EPC BUSINESS & CAPEX ECONOMICS (COMPANY)
  6. SCALE
  7. RISK

0. PROMOTER’S PROFILE

Mr. Anish Tulshibhai Patel (Managing Director & Promoter, Age: 44)

  • Holds a Master’s in Information Technology & Computer Science; early career in marketing, finance, and quality control in education and hospitality franchises.
  • 6 years in entertainment industry; Founder & Director since 2018, appointed Managing Director (5-year term from Sep 30, 2024), overseeing property acquisition, franchise growth, and operations.
  • Key awards: FRO SUMMIT (2021), Proper Media (2020), IEDRA Emerging Company of the Year (2023), Gujarat State Brand Leadership (2024).

Mr. Rahul Kamleshbhai Dhyani (Joint Managing Director & Promoter, Age: 45)

  • Commerce graduate; started as Marketing Executive with experience in business development, event management, and entertainment.
  • 6 years in entertainment industry; Founder & Director since 2018, appointed Joint Managing Director (5-year term from Sep 30, 2024), focusing on market expansion, operational efficiency, and revenue strategies.
  • Key awards: FRO SUMMIT (2021), Proper Media (2020), IEDRA Emerging Company of the Year (2023), Gujarat State Brand Leadership (2024).

1 CINEMA = 3 SCREENS = 240 SEATS — [ 80 SEATS / SCREEN ]

(#) Variables: All calculations are based on these key variables. Any change in these variables will directly affect the results.


1. UNIT ECONOMICS FROM FRANCHISEE’S PERSPECTIVE

  • 240 SEATS ( 1 Cinema )
  • 4 Shows / DAY
  • 30% Occupancy ( # )
  • 30 Days in a Month

240 * 4 * 30% * 30 = 8,640 Seats / Month ( # )

  • TICKET PRICE = 300
  • 300 - 18% GST = 246 ( # )
  • 246 - (Distributor Charge (50%) = 123
  • Franchisee Ticket Income = 123 * 80% = 98 , (20% goes to Connplex)

Ticket Income Per Month = 8640 * 98 = 8,46,720

  • F&B SPH = 100
  • 100 - (5% GST) - (25% COGS) = 72 ( # )
  • Franchisee F&B Income = 72 * 80% = 58 , ( 20% goes to Connplex)

F&B Income Per Month = 8640 * 58 = 5,01,120

  • PVR generated approx. ₹26.3 lakh of ad revenue per screen per year in FY25. This translates to ₹447 crore across 3,53,870 seats, or roughly ₹12,500 per seat per year.
  • For Connplex, I have assumed ₹10,000 per seat per year.
  • Connplex also earns convenience fees from platforms like BookMyShow. For simplicity, I have combined (Ad Revenue + Convenience Fees) and assumed a total of ₹10,000 per seat per year.
  • Since Connplex operates largely in Tier-2/3 markets, ad revenue per seat may be slightly lower than PVR. Hence, clubbing convenience fees provides a realistic estimate.
  • This assumption is supported by my discussion with management; a ±10% variation is possible but unlikely to be higher.

Ad Income + Convenience Fees Per Month = ( [ 80% * 10,000 (PER SEAT ANNUAL) * 240 (SEATS) ] / 12 ) = 1,60,000 Per Cinema Per Month

  • Income For Franchisee = 8,46,720 + 5,01,120 + 1,60,000 = 15,07,840 Per Cinema Per Month

Expenses

  • Rent + Maintenance = 4,00,000
  • Salary = 3,00,000
  • Electricity = 1,50,000
  • Total Expense = 8,50,000 Per Month ( # )

Total Income For Franchisee Per Cinema Per Month = 15,07,840 - 8,50,000 = 6,57,840

2. CAPEX ECONOMICS FROM FRANCHISEE’S PERSPECTIVE

  • Franchisee Fees to Connplex = 5 Lakh / Screen = 15 Lakh / Cinema ( # )
  • 1 Cr / Screen Capex (Avg.) = 3 Cr / Cinema ( # )
  • Total Investment = 3.15 Cr

ROI (month) = 3.15 Cr / 6,57,840 = 48 Months = 4 Years.

So, the franchisee recovers their investment in about 4 years. After that, they earn profits for the remaining operating period of the cinema, roughly 11 years (15-year life minus 4 years of payback).

3. UNIT ECONOMICS FROM COMAPNY’S PERSPECTIVE

  • TICKET ROYALTY = 20 % * 123 * 8640 = 2,12,544 Per Month Per Cinema
  • F&B ROYALTY = 20 % * 72 * 8640 = 1,24,416 Per Month Per Cinema
  • Ad Royalty + Convenience Royalty = ( [ 20% * 10,000 (PER SEAT ANNUAL) * 240 (SEATS) ] / 12 ) = 40,000 Per Month Per Cinema
  • VPF Income - VPF (Virtual Print Fee) is a recurring revenue stream earned by cinema exhibitors for screening movies using digital projectors or LED screens. This is not shared with Franchisee, company makes about 33,000 VPF Income Per Month Per Screen, i.e. 1,00,000 Per Month Per Cinema.

Income for Company Per Cinema Per Month = 4,77,000

4,77,000 / 3 = 1,60,000 is what Connplex earns as a royalty per Screen per Month

~ 20,00,000 Royalty Per Screen Annually

  • Opex = Employee Cost + Corporate Cost ( All of which is funded by EPC arm, explained later)
  • Working Capital Requirements in Cinema Business = 0, (All royalty income)
  • Capital Employed in Cinema Business = 0,
  • Depreciation & Interest Cost ~ 0
  • Hence the title of the page, Connplex’s Cinema business is near infinite RoCE.

4. EPC BUSINESS & CAPEX ECONOMICS

  • Franchisee invests ₹1 crore per screen as capex.
  • Total project cost is ₹3 crore per cinema. After 18% GST, the net EPC value becomes ₹2.46 crore.
  • The company earns 30% EBITDA margin on this EPC revenue:
    30% × ₹2.46 crore = ~ ₹74 lakh.
  • Additionally, the company charges a ₹15 lakh franchise fee per cinema.
  • Total EBITDA per cinema (EPC vertical) = ₹74 lakh + ₹15 lakh = ₹89 lakh.
  • The company’s capex requirement (projectors + electronics) is ₹50–60 lakh per cinema.
  • Working capital needs arise mainly from:
  • Receivables from franchisees for EPC work,
  • Inventory of furniture, projectors, and materials for ongoing/upcoming projects.
  • Essentially, the EBITDA generated from the EPC vertical fully covers:
    The company’s projector/electronics capex,
    Its working capital requirements,
    A portion of employee and corporate costs.
  • No business offers “infinite RoCE,” but here one can conclude that EPC income makes the cinema business effectively working-capital-free for the company.

5. SCALE

The company has guided for an aggressive rollout of 1,000 screens by FY30. I believe this is achievable given the near-zero capital requirement, strong unit economics, and a highly scalable business model.

So, let’s scale these numbers to visualize the potential of the business.

Royalty Income For 1000 Screens Per Year = 1,60,000 * 12 * 1000 ~ 200 Crores

Remember, this is royalty income, it is largely ~100% margin, recurring revenue, with most of it flowing directly to the bottom line.

Cumulative EPC Income (Ebitda) for [ 1000 - 80 ] Screens (80 already operational) = (89 Lakh/3) * 1000 = 297 Crores

So, company can make ~ 300 crores of cumulative Ebitda in next 4-5 years from EPC vertical.

Assuming 200-250cr only, accounted for any kind of additional operational costs.

6. RISKS

  • Recently listed: All calculations are based on publicly available information and management commentary. Key variables may change.
  • Execution risk: The company is pursuing aggressive expansion, which may strain operational capabilities.
  • Rising competition: The business model is attractive, and new entrants may intensify competition over time.
  • Content dependency: Performance is linked to the quality and success of film content an external factor beyond the company’s control.
  • Pandemic risk: Any large-scale health crisis remains a terminal industry risk.
  • OTT adoption: While OTT penetration is increasing, multiplex presence in Tier-2/3/4 cities is still limited. OTT may not be a near-term threat, though it could become one in the long term.

Read More :

Key Qualitative Differences vs. Competition - CONNPLEX CINEMA - A RETAILER WITH NEAR INFINITE RoCE - #29 by RocketMan

How To Think About Capex Calculation - CONNPLEX CINEMA - A RETAILER WITH NEAR INFINITE RoCE - #30 by RocketMan


If I had to sum it up in a few lines -

What Dr. LaL did for Diagnostics,
What Kalyan did for Jewellery,

Connplex has the potential to do the same for cinemas.


My intention here is simply to explain the business model, outline the unit economics, and help visualize the future potential. I have not made any projections on stock price or valuation multiples, as those are subjective and are left to the reader to evaluate. I also haven’t verified past financials, so please do your own due diligence before investing.


Disclosure : Holding


Disclaimer :

SME stocks carry higher risks due to their small size and limited history. This analysis is for educational purposes only and is not investment advice. Please do your own research or consult a SEBI-registered advisor before investing.

31 Likes
2 Likes

Their debtor days are rising. The try to explain it away as temporary payment delays during construciton. But it has steadily risen. Surely its more than that? Any comments / thoughts on that?

Yeah, there isn’t much to read into that. Earlier, when they signed a contract with a franchisee, they would wait for the full funds to come in before mobilizing the team or ordering equipment. Now, with IPO funds available, they can mobilize both teams and equipment upfront without waiting for complete payment.

I also don’t see any major debtor risk here, the franchisee is locked into a 15-year contract and will typically clear payments before the cinema becomes operational. I’ll keep an eye on debtor days, but I’m not too concerned. Over time, the royalty business will become more dominant anyway, and that has zero debtor risk.

1 Like

I just scanned a few cities and dates. I beleive ticket pricing is more at 200 or at best 225 kind of numbers if you avergae it out. This is for an Hot movie running at packed houses.

Hyderabad.

Ahmedabad.

So the revenue as per sensivity analysis can get you

icket Revenue Share Table

Ticket Price Net After 18% GST (₹) After Distributor 50% (₹) Franchisee 80% (₹) Connplex 20% (₹)
₹200 164.00 82.00 65.60 16.40
₹225 184.50 92.25 73.80 18.45
₹250 205.00 102.50 82.00 20.50

And Monthly revenue comes to.

Monthly Ticket Revenue Distribution

Ticket Price Franchisee Share per Ticket (₹) Connplex Share per Ticket (₹) Franchisee Monthly (₹) Connplex Monthly (₹)
₹200 65.60 16.40 5,66,784 1,41,696
₹225 73.80 18.45 6,37,632 1,59,048
₹250 82.00 20.50 7,08,480 1,77,120

Rest of it is fine. I do think ad revenue may not be that high. But not trying to calculate that. Its far easier for PVR to get national brands that pay higher pricing. Whats the amount of ad time is crucial factor. Does connplex play 15 min of ads before movie starts.

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The average ticket price was 243 in H1, and management indicated that H2 is typically stronger. They’re also accelerating the Luxuriance format, which should further lift realizations.

With inflation also playing a role, my estimate was more forward-looking - visualising where pricing could stabilise a few years down the line - so I assumed 300.

That’s why I highlighted ATP as a key variable.

You can adjust it based on your own expectations.

2 Likes

Also I have assumed 30% occupancy, occupancy is actually about 33-35%. So net calculation won’t change much. Wherever possible I have taken a conservative number.

I would say 30 - 33% is a decent number. Will change through the year i guess. Anyway just highlighting what i checked at one glance.

I always cross check what a ppt says.

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You can see for Luxuriance, ticket prices are even going to 650.

So, 300 ATP is not very far away imo.

Sorry but this is not the way you can calculate.

Overall, it has to be total no of seats * pricing. hardly 5-10% of seats will be for this.

Also for a non-blockbuster movie. In a year you may have 4-5 blockbusters only. Those play for 2-3 weeks only. That is only way you will get an approximate number.

Yes it’s all averages.

No one knows what will be ATP few years from now.

In H1 it was 243. H2 would be better.

And with Luxuriance and inflation it should inch towards 300 is my view.

Idea to share above screenshot was, the trend of ATP is moving upwards.

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Is 3cr enough to have a 3 screen cinema in Tier 2 city…I mean just land cost will be more than that.

This is EPC (construction) cost. No one buys land. It’s either Franchisee’s place or a rented place. Rent is one of the largest operational expense for franchisee. Good thing is in Tier2,3 cities rent ain’t that high.

Right I missed out the rent part, But In ROI calculation you should take PAT instead of PBT which comes out to be 5 lakh / month , In 5.5 years they will be recovering the original investment.

Yes, ideally that should have been included.

Based on my discussion with management, the franchisee’s payback period is 3.5–4 years. Ultimately, it all depends on the variables - change the occupancy and the payback changes; change the ATP and the payback changes.

As a shorthand, the calculation I’ve presented is a reasonable benchmark. In reality, many factors are at play:

Some franchisees may recover their investment in 2 years,

Some may take 5 years,

Location and competition significantly influence performance.

When you average everything out, 4 years is the practical estimate.

Also, the company earns 30% margins in the EPC business because they are confident that franchisees can recover their money in ~4 years. Otherwise, sustaining such margins in EPC would have been very difficult.

One thing to note is that whether the franchisee’s payback happens in 2 years or 5 years, Connplex’s royalty earnings may fluctuate, but the company itself carries no operational risk. Since the income is entirely royalty-based, if a cinema performs well they earn more, and if it performs poorly they earn less, but there is no balance sheet risk for the company.

4 Likes

Yup , return Profile is very similar to Ztech .

Something interesting is happening.


If you look at the last two announcements carefully :

The first one mentions 300 seats per cinema,
The second one mentions 100 seats per cinema.

This is not what I had accounted for in my earlier calculations.

So the obvious question is: Why are they suddenly going for larger cinemas when their entire business model is built around scaling smaller Mini-Plexes ?

After digging a bit, the answer is actually straightforward:

Because the model works.

What they’re doing is taking over non-functional or inefficient cinemas, finding a franchisee willing to partner for renovation (capex), and converting the property into a Connplex cinema.

From the company’s perspective:

Larger cinemas = higher EPC revenue,
And if the cinema scales well, then higher royalty income too.

And as always, all the operational and financial risk sits with the franchisee, not the company.

It’s entirely possible that these two cases are one-offs and may not repeat frequently.

But it will be very interesting to track franchisee payback periods for these larger formats.

If the economics work even for bigger cinemas, then there are a lot of new possibilities that current calculations don’t capture.

2 Likes

I’ve a few queries regarding company operations -

  1. In FY25 financials, cinema making revenue is ~49 Crs while RM cost is ~22 Crs; thus, EBITDA is ~27 Crs and margins at ~55%. In th H1FY26 concall, it has been mentioned that margins for this business is ~30%. What other costs to be taken into consideration for this EPC business?

  2. In FY25, movie exhibition revenue is ~35 Crs while distributor charges is Rs. ~15 Crs but franchise share of revenue is ~19 crs, thus, franchise share seems to be 19/(35-15) = 95% revenue. What other revenue and costs to be taken into consideration for franchise revenue?