Changu Mangu The Bull - Portfolio

Well, I’ll share an example; two people are walking on the road. They by mistake bump into each other. They, immediately do not start hitting each other. What really happens is, at the bump, the person who wasn’t looking might say “oh, I’m so sorry” and the second one might respond “no worries mate” and both move on, but if the first one says “are, kya re?” the second one might say “Sorry mate, my apologies” and it will still cool things off.

However, if the second also gets enraged by the first person’s language, it will. proceed to so use of verbal language, it many finish there or it may lead to a physical fight… or worse.

Similarly, in the markets, it was small incremental steps that took me there, and I guess take most people there.

Covid lockdowns started around 18th March. I was locked up at home and after a couple of weeks I was quite frustrated. One of my friends called me and while chatting he said, dude, I’m thinking of getting some alcohol to pass time in the evening, and I was like yeah, that’s a great idea.

So both he and me (both of us had stopped drinking everyday a few years ago) were back on the bottle by next day.

Next, I get drunk and every evening look at US stocks, got active on twitter, started listening to some hedge fund subscriber service (:zipper_mouth_face:) who had called the crash, and felt oh this guy knows something. Paid a fee and became a paid subscriber of his service.

He would send out 4-5 day trade alerts everyday. I would trade them, then I activated my futures and options account.

I was losing money on his subscription service, and in the meanwhile I had connected with some day traders on twitter. So, I stopped taking his signals, and then I started day trading using futures on my own.

Then I used to play cautiously and got back what I lost. From there I was glued to the screen from morning 8 am to night 12 pm (yes, drinking from 6 pm onwards) and trading drunk. We still could not leave home, and being a type of personality that cannot sit around doing nothing I had found something to do, which kept me engaged through the day.

Then I started making 4-5% a month minimum and some good months, I clocked I think nearly 12% a month.

This is where I was running calculations of 5-7% CAGR PER MONTH for 20 years and I was one of the richest men in the world :joy::joy::joy:

Then I started breaking my rules, I started taking directional bets via options, became a macro trader as well.

Well, I need not explain further :joy: on what happens. This is exactly how retail traders lose money. Day trading stocks, commodities, futures and directional opinions expressed via 2-3-4 daily trades via options.

So the inevitable happened. It was bound to happen.

Luckily, the lockdowns were over, I sat down with a cup coffee one morning, thought about everything, for a few hours, (played everything in flashback, saw my mistakes) and closed these accounts.

About 3 months ago, I opened investing only accounts, and have been slowly deploying capital to good long term investments.

I also bought a house in Pune this year and may move back to India soon.

Point is, I have lost and made money on multiple investments (private businesses and public financial markets). If one did not blow up everything then it may be a hard lesson, but if god has been kind that we were not finished, we will earn again, things will again be fine. It hurt me mentally initially, but we get over it. No point crying over spilt milk. Look forward.

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Liked very much your honest confession, very few people in stock markets are able to understand their mistakes and only few of them able to take corrective actions. I only follow ine things" Buy a large business when sector, stock is out of favor to make your odds most probable for a desirable outcome

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That is not true. The portfolio that I have shared here is giving around 18% CAGR. It is possible to obtain over 20% through long term investing. It is also possible to make money day trading, manually as well as algorithmically. You can read about those who have been doing this successfully in market wizards book series.

I believe that the difference lies in risk first approach. Most people trade focussed on gain. They become impatient and want to earn big money quick, and in doing so lose sight of the losses they will take if they are wrong. If they are lucky, they manage to avoid big loss for some time, but luck runs out eventually and they end up losing an amount they can’t afford to lose.

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Gains first, risks second is the exact mistake that I am trying to point. I do not know whether the likes of Kotak Bank, Asian paints, Dmart etc can keep growing at 20%. But they have very good execution, solid competitive advantages, and management with high integrity. They only have valuation risk, which is why they will always find buyers even when the markets are falling. So the reason I have them in my portfolio isn’t because I am aiming at some x% gains, but because they minimize the risks I am exposed to. Think about risks first, and let the gains take care of itself.

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Interesting discussion…it’s always good to aim higher…I have read your views and in various threads and like them…could you direct if you have a portfolio thread? Would really like to know which kind of businesses you target to get this kind of return consistently maintaining proper risk management as well…also what percentage of your networth you put at risk to get 25% or higher returns?

Btw interestingly the same stocks you mention going fwd cannot give required returns of 15%+…the ones which @Divyanshu_Bagga mentioned aka Asian paints, dmart etc. Gave 30-35% + returns over incremental capital deployed over just last 3 months or so…not saying this can be repeated consistently but just a perspective…

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Not financial advise. Just an opinion. Have seen 3M trade between 19K and 23K for quite some time.

The (relatively new but now old) trader in me says, buy at 19K, more at 18K and even more if it gets to 17K. Offload at 23K.

Don’t need to wait for 24K.

I would not short it. Only go long every time it hits those ranges.

Good risk reward imho.

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Right now want to sell my biggest winner Apple to buy more of Shopify (my biggest bet).

Staying away because I had some wine. May do so tomorrow if it still makes sense, when not on wine. One of my new rules :slight_smile:

Have been buying Shopify over the last 3-4 months hand over fist.

I use them so I understand their business model and stickiness.

I’ve been buying mostly US stocks as not many in India make sense at the moment.

My portfolio has 4 stocks and 80% plus is Shopify.

Not financial advise. For learning and logging purposes only.

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Sir are you using IND money app for buying US stocks?Please guide us, I am also thinking to invest in US market.

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I don’t live in India at the moment.

However, since I plan to move back to India soon, I checked with my broker (Charles Schwab) and they said Indian’s can open and/or keep active their accounts if they live in India.

Only thing that would change is, I will have to pay the capital gains tax as per Indian rules.

I am sure any Indian can open an account with Charles Schwab.

INR depreciates against the USD always (since our independence) so I have no doubt that INR will always depreciate against the USD. That itself provides a 4-5% gain every year (not each year but on a CAGR basis).

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By typing out our own thoughts we learn so much.

After I wrote the above, I realised;

  1. US or Indian Index will give 12-13% on a long term CAGR basis.

  2. If I only invest in US Indice ETF’s (even the one’s available for SIP via Motilal Oswal (if I’m not mistaken) and whatever else there may be…

Adding rupee depreciation of 4-5%, I can get long term results of 17% ~ 18% CAGR.

Why would I even bother with direct stock investing unless I came across a very very compelling opportunity.

PLUS THE NASDAQ IS DOWN 30% AS I TYPE.

Seems like a very good return for doing nothing. Warren Buffet was right about Index Investing.

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There is however one problem.
US markets are cyclical, they give good returns once a decade, when liquidity finds a way. Whereas, india is a secular growth story. Where top banks are growing at 18% cagr.

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You might see Nasdaq at 30% fall, but do u still feel that all components are available at good valuations…Nasdaq is still 16-17% high compared to pre covid levels…what makes u think US indices will be 12-13%, is it because data shows that in last 10 years which happened to be one of the biggest bull phases in US equities…In last decade, US nominal GDP (real gdp+inflation) grew at 6%…Normally index grow at nominal GDP levels, so US index ran faster than their growth…comparitively, with 12-13% nominal GDP growth in 2010s India index was growing at 8-9%…rupee depreciation will definitely give u 3% additional cagr for US investments, but 9-10% would be the ideal expectations including currency returns…India is poised to give better returns than this

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Have you looked at Palantir Technologies & ULCC ?

I happen to know some about Palantir, as someone who now is a quant, used to work there reasonably high up in the echelon. He shared some information but also advised me to stay away from the stock. Things may have changed since then, but I haven’t checked on it.

Have never tracked ULCC.

Best,

K.

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Today, I beg and double beg newer small cap investors to read this link, and the entire thread, if they can find time, if they want to keep their profits. Decision is one’s each own.

The more you read history, the more you know the future.

Best regards,

K.

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@valuestudent
Dear Changu Mangu ji,

You gave us a solid warning with your “beg and double beg” post about small caps and booking profits. I heard it, nodded, but didn’t act—classic overconfident investor move!

If i try to generalise situation…PF peaked in July, right around when you posted this. Since then, it’s been a rollercoaster—tanked, bounced back by January, and now sliding south at a consistent speed of 3%/day (down 20% from the top). It’s still at 1X gain, but honestly, it feels like a loss! …still 100% invested… Lesson learned: profits look way better in your bank account than as numbers on a tracker. How to do that though? Still figuring it out.

Questions Time:

  1. When to stop and think? How can overenthusiastic newbies like me resist the urge to overinvest and learn to patiently wait for the right time?
  2. Market meltdowns: What’s your experience during crashes? Do participants just panic-sell at any price, or is there a strategy to navigate the chaos?
  3. Crystal ball time: What’s your outlook on what’s coming next? I know no one has a magic crystal ball, but some gyaan for me and the retail samaj would be priceless!

Also, your thoughts on key points we should add to an action plan for situations like this?

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Hello @LarryWink
Thank you for the message.
I do not have some magic ball that I could share :joy:
I see a few things that remain the same each time froth arrives.

  1. A friend or 2 show me their portfolio value and how much it has gone up.
  2. People start making fun (mildly) of people like ContrarianEPS and Shyam Sekhar and a few others, who try to openly warn and help others.
  3. The tweets are all very rosy and positive. I some while ago started using Radar in X, and it is a great sentiment tool.
  4. No one (pretty much) is in pain. All are happy with the markets.
  5. Small caps, even new ipo’s, double and triple in a month or 2 max.
  6. Every news is good news. Blinfolds are on. People say things like, just enjoy the ride.
  7. This is a secular bull run. Bhai all bull runs are secular, none are non-secular :slightly_smiling_face:
  8. The newest are advising the older investors. This is see mostly at Clubs, irrespective if I am in Poona Club or CCI.
  9. Billiards room, which is usually quiet, has small talks on what stocks are you in etc…

Just human behaviour, if I say it distilled.

Where are we right now? Unfortunately, I have to say, not at the bottom, I feel so for small caps, but there are now some lovely stocks on sale as well, many blue chips, a depository stock (not low low cheap, but one could nibble), so I do see opportunity now.

Regards,

Changu Mangu.

PS: I will respond to your other questions in some time.

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Questions Time:

  1. When to stop and think? How can overenthusiastic newbies like me resist the urge to overinvest and learn to patiently wait for the right time? - “Confucius: By three methods we may learn wisdom: First, by reflection, which is noblest; Second, by imitation, which is easiest; and third by experience, which is the bitterest.”

  2. Market meltdowns: What’s your experience during crashes? Do participants just panic-sell at any price, or is there a strategy to navigate the chaos? - Yes, most have near zero knowledge. Most are buying tips. Stocks bought on tips have no conviction. Near 100% will sell out at a loss.

  3. Crystal ball time: What’s your outlook on what’s coming next? I know no one has a magic crystal ball, but some gyaan for me and the retail samaj would be priceless!
    [/quote] - Answered In first reply.

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Very risky to be direct, but here is what I would recommend anyone who reads this to do.

This is one of the most opportune moments to get into stocks like Nestle, HUL, Asian Paints, Abbott… and so many other bluechips, Will not name them any further, but most bluechips are MNC’s, very few are Indian companies, in my humble opinion. The stocks for life. Get in, in one go, do it in SIP’s, do whatever works for you.

In these stocks, losses are temporary and gains are permanent, unless bought when skies are rosy.

Do not be fooled by companies who come and go. They are like girlfriends/boyfriends, we date them.

Marry only the MNC Bluechips (mostly, very few Indian exceptions).

Date more after marriage, if the come and go get cheap enough. Then get out again when the time is right, and put those funds in the marriage, when they correct.

Very rarely, like 3-5 times a decade, you will find a small cap worth holding, and find it worth getting married to. Those are very very very very very rare, are you will 100% find the info on VP when the senior’s mention them in some way.

Also, follow Safir Anand on X, he is very very good at this small cap game, he does it intuitively, just picks very well. But, he does remain bullish even when he should encash some of his gains. So there’s that.

I’m done for this correction. No more opinion, unless something changes drastically.

It will be a very interesting year for sure, knowing what we all know is going on, so don’t forget to enjoy! have fun, do not take things too seriously.

Regards,

K

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PS: All things considered, if I wanted to do small-cap, and did not know what to do or how to do it, I would only go with @8sarveshg, I am not promoting him, have no investment in his pms, but have seen his work for over than 6 or so years now. Same as when I mentioned PPFAS 5 or so years ago.

Outsourcing?

PPFAS for India + Global

Sarvesh from Maximal Capital for Small Caps. There are more who are also excellent as him, but I have not known or met them. In fact, fair disclosure, I have not even spoken to him since around covid 2020.

This is my blog post and my page, I can say what I wish.

Someone can check just his fixed income returns and get mind boggled on the SEBI website. SEBI | Portfolio Manager Monthly Report

Not stocks, just fixed income stuff. I do not know, what all he does exactly. In stocks also, he is way too good.

A friend of mine who owns a bank, and also the bankers bank for Maharashtra, saw what I could share, could not believe it, and went to Mumbai to meet him. They as a bank might invest. Maybe, maybe not.

But be ready for him to hold to cash for months, maybe even years if that is demanded.

He is not suitable for those that want to invest it all, right away.

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