Changu Mangu The Bull - Portfolio

Update…This is my now my 100% confirmation of the mind’s processing of thought’s, have mentioned this years ago in behavioral finance…

The last book you read influences you, way, way, way, too much. Keep this in your arsenal please, if this post makes sense to you.

If you read Ben Graham last, it will influence you a lot, if you read Phil Fisher last, it will influence you a lot. actually most, or any other book, last read.

if you read Micheal Porter last, it will influence you the most.

Food for thought… process and decide why you do what you do, what financial decisions do you make, after reading a book.

Love and regards.

K.

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Is was a question I pondered over for months.

I realised (speaking for myself) that what I am looking for is

  1. 10-11% returns.
  2. Regular Income.
  3. I do not want to depend upon stock market quotes for figuring out what is my net worth. I just need to make sure I get enough dividends from my holdings that I do not need to depend on stock price quotations of Mr. Market. Do not want to sell stocks during periods of low prices to run my expenses if it comes to it.
  4. I do not want to worry about hyperinflation. So good dividend stocks are FD’s with an optionality. They keep you protected from inflation.

Say, the markets go in a flat or downtrend for 2-5 years (has happened in every stock market before, and will happen in the future)

So I will at some point become a senior citizen and I have 2 options if it comes to that point, whatever the capital (cannot predict what my exact net worth will be 10-15 years down the line). Sell stocks if needed, to run the household, (if it comes to it) even at low valuations, or chill with dividends, whatever the valuation stated by Mr. Market at that point is, and not think about the it, either way.

Now government has made dividend taxable at the hand of shareholders. It is counted as income just like rental income etc. Upto 12 lacs is tax free.

So 2 Cr worth of stocks in my demat and 2 Cr worth of stocks in my wife’s demat gives us 24 lacs a year (approximately) tax free. If I am lucky to get even more dividend income I am happy to pay the tax on that :) Why not, I got more money.

The US investing is being done by a non Indian entity, so all the dividends I accrue from the US are tax free. If you do some research, you may get what I mean. That looks like it is going to be 40-50K USD per year.

Now, whether the markets are high, reasonable, undervalued etc, just determine what I do with some investments outside India since I will not touch my India investments.

Just sharing my random thought process on which I am betting the bank.

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I have made 9% approx absolute in the last 6 months, that means maybe about 20% annualised or so, sticking mostly to PSU’s.

Plus got a 5% odd dividend yield.

What I want to say is, I have finally understood value investing now, while I called myself value student for 9 years, when I did not know value correctly. Buy when low, hold when reasonable. Sell when overpriced, and rotate that money from selling to something that is value at that moment.

”I may refine this above, when I learn more.”

My personal opinion, since VP is mostly focused on small caps, I today think that it is quite a good time to start layering in into “good” small caps.

If you don’t know good yet, please do sip’s into PPFAS, or a PMS (I personally shared one, prior), but if you know, (involves a lot, ROE, ROCE, Management, Revenue Growth, Profit Growth and some more), then I think while I do not know the bottom, the time to start allocating is now opportune.

No one catches the top, no one catches the bottom, but value determines if you start positioning yourself with real money, at about the right time, in pessimism and in exuberance.

I think the time is ripe to start fishing in small caps for those who know what is good fish and what is phissss… not fish.

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All right, here is my US portfolio, same timeframe, got interesting about 6 months ago too, timeline pretty close to India when I sold them, Shopify etc, sold them in good time. Soon, Shopify and other similar, will be a good buy again, but would layer in only.

But when you consider dividend yields and currency depreciation of the INR to USD of about 6-7%, then this is also about 15-20% CAGR. The 714.29 you will see is in a corner is just cash on hand.

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Nothing financial. But after Muthu who wanted markets closed when COVID hit, today I added Basant Maheshwari (teacher of the original founders of VP) to my list of losers to avoid. Based on these comments from him. What a sore loser and low life Basant is.

This is my page on VP. I can say what I want. Advise to moderators in advance to think 10 times before they delete it, if so, on their ideologies.

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