@nirvana_laha Fed has done its bit in scaring commodities down. The 75 bps and the continuous “we will do all we can” has kept the commodity speculators in check so we may not have a runaway inflation. This is a positive for all sorts of consumption which is why the picks are domestic consumption focused where I find relative safety.
The devaluation of the dollar and the respective repricing of assets was what led to the rally in '20 and '21 across all risk assets and commodities. Now the dollar “appears” to be strengthening relative to other currencies as pandemic policies are being reversed.
There are things going bust in the crypto space, small/microcaps have taken a mauling, influencers are being called out on social media - all good signs that normalcy is being restored.
I think there are larger shifts at play in geopolitics where there are possibly going to be two trading blocs - one that will deal with russia and china in yuan and another that will trade in dollar. India is sort of well-placed as we will very likely emerge as a neutral trading member in both blocs which augurs very well for us (we could buy russian crude and export petro products to the west for eg.) - this is what is probably showing in the relative strength of the INR as compared to other currencies.
Again, this doesn’t mean that I have completely shrugged off the bearishness - my allocation to equities had gone down to 20% by end of last year - so I couldn’t afford to sit out with that sort of cash call for too long and so have started looking at areas of strength and consumption clearly stood out. Let’s see if it works out ok.