Bull therapy 101-thread for technical analysis with the fundamentals

Thanks for your response!

The major difference I understand is that Genesys is trying to build the metaverse itself, while Ceinsys is focused on developing applications within the metaverse apart from their ER&D busines.

Any reading recommendations for beginners? Your repose was well research and well put! Would love to work on my reading and researching skills!

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Regarding Garware, what do you think about the possibility of price getting re-rated before the new capacity comes online? Result wise its almost sure that they can’t do much better for next 3-4 quarters since they are running at full capacity, but the p/e ratio is very cheap considering current market and roughly 100 rupee eps in FY 25. I also sold it at around 2K, since in past I have held onto cap-ex stories and sold in frustration because of interim turbulence as things like depreciation, interest starts immediately but full capacity utilization takes much longer and by that time market sentiment changes for worse and the price basically goes nowhere profitable .

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With the current capacity, they have a guidance of 2500 cr by FY26. Which will be 20% YoY growth over FY24-FY26. The new capacity will stary contributing post that. There is chance of slight operating margin going towards 18-20 %. This business to me still fairly valued. They are churning out new products via R&D, creating a brand in the domestic market, strong balance sheet (possibility of an inorganic acquisition). Biggest risk to me is the corporate governance faltering, as they have a history.

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Invested in a small way in Ceinsys.
Your post got me to start reading about the “Metaverse”. Here is an article from WIRED which may help others. What Is the Metaverse, Exactly? | WIRED

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After a modest election result by NDA government the opinion going around was this government will have more populous reforms. That is evident on the union level by the announcement of farmer loan waver off and 20000 cr for PMAY scheme. And yesterday Maharashtra government also gave away a lot of freebies in the budget. Hopefully these all things will be a catalyst for growth in Tier 2, 3 & Rural economy.

For instance Mah gov. giving Rs. 1500 per month to women could lead to buying of 2 wheelers (without spending too much of their own money they can manage to pay the EMI thanks to the month money they will be receiving) or increased spends on alcohol or branded clothing.

What would be the best way to play this story?

Very broad themes are difficult to play to the precision. Sometimes you may deduce that one particular sector will be benefitted and some other ancillary sector gets benefitted. Sometimes you think one company will perform , but some other company starts performing.

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At the same time ,Less money will be available towards capt spending such as infrastructure , road and others , thereby reducing employment generation , as company will have lesser order for new work development and that lead to reduce consumption of cement and steel so don’t anticipate it’s out come towards GDP

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valuation is very high that is the main concern

Almost a month has passed since what appeared to be “Day 1 of bear markets” which in hindsight has turned to be 17 sessions of uninterrupted, and as yet unbroken rampaging green streak at pf level. I will not delude myself to think this was the only possible outcome although it was a likelier outcome I felt at that time (can’t afford to not be optimistic). The panic was brief and passing when the pf drawdown crossed -10% and hit -11% briefly. Did not expect the swiftness and ferocity of bounceback though which has led to biggest gains in any month for me, which I doubt will be matched in a long time. In terms of emotional capital, June 4th has given more than the financial capital gained in the month perhaps.

Sharda Motorsm Weekly - Long tail on week 1, followed by 3 weeks of gains. What’s also special is the breakout from that upwards sloping trendline which was dictating rate of gains previously. This breakout should set in motion a new trendline yet to be established.

Parabolic moves like this generally lead to more gains. The chart reminds me of what VBL went through in June '22 when I took position. The buyback at 1800 is completed which has taken the lid off the prices. There’s also lot of institutions which have got into Sharda this month, taking their ownership from 0% to ~10%.

Despite all this, and doubling since initial breakout, it continues to remain very cheap.

Wockhardt, Monthly - Some good updates from the AGM and the dispatches. Nafithro could do 100 Cr sales in FY26. Emrok could double the sales, WCK 5222 has been used to treat a cancer patient with CRPA (NDM-MBL producing) in the US successfully which is a big deal as FDA has indirectly approved the drug in its “Extended Access” program which is like DCGI’s compassionate use. It also tells us that NDM-MBL producing bugs which were specific to developing countries are now present in Developed countries as well (WCK 5222 is the only drug capable of treating NDM-MBL producing Pseudomonas Aeruginosa based on papers I have read). CLSI has awarded an investigational breakpoint of 64 mg/L. @Sanjay_Kumar_E has dissected it beautifully in this post.

The short answer is higher breakpoint increases market size and applicability. Some of the papers for eg. thought acineto was resistant to WCK 5222 based on their notion of Cefepime’s breakpoint. Now CLSI has agreed that the way WCK 5222 works is different and thus awarded the higher breakpoint which makes the drug usable in even Acineto that few papers classified WCK 5222 as resistant. It also makes it a better drug against existing ones as its MIC is several dilutions away than competetion.

Resistance development also will take time against WCK 5222 - so simple interpritation would suggest a bigger market size for longer. The CLSI verdict also potentially brings the “best-in-class” and 'first-in-class" that blockbuster molecules that do things differently than the rest get. Current drugs are Beta-lactamase Inhibitors (BLI) while WCK 5222 also enhances the function of Cefepime by bringing its T% > MIC down and thus forges a new category called BLE (Beta-lactamase Enhancer) which could again potentially increase value of the drug.

Shaily, Weekly - Another breakout from an upwards trendline, similar to VBL in Jun '22 I mentioned above in Sharda section. Fundamentally nothing more to discuss than what’s done in earlier posts. This too could get a move on.

Ceinsys, Weekly - Closed above 20 WMA and has set itself up for resumption in direction of uptrend from brief correction. Fundamentally have discussed this in depth in multiple posts in this thread. There was one more order extension disclosed which could be ~50 Cr in value. Can pick up steam on a weekly close above 600 levels which should happen before Q1 numbers comes out. I presume Q1 should be a good quarter going by the deferrement of large order from Q4.

Genesys, Weekly - On the weekly chart, it has reversed its downtrend and closed above 20 WMA. The monthly chart shows the potential of a breakout above 650-700 levels. The company has inked a partnership with NNG Auto and Mobility Solutions which will bring AI powered ADAS navigation to vehicles in India (mostly high-end luxury cars). This is probably the first customer for the new HD Maps made for ADAS product.

Garware, Weekly - Has made a strong close above those pesky 2200 levels which was seeing lot of supply. Should help in continuation of trend.

Taal, Monthly - A close above 3000 would have been very positive here but it retraced back some of the gains. I still think it could surprise on the upside pre/post AGM as more clarity emerges on growth plans. May remain cheap until then.

Disc: Invested. No recent transactions in any of these

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Krishca Strapping- a breakout after a long time, with strong volumes confirming the shift in the trend.

The new unit which is to sell higher margins straps is commercialized. They have doubled the capacity with this unit, taking the revenue potential to 300cr at peak utilisation. This yr they plan to do 40-50% utilisation, and will fully utilise it over 4yrs (although i expect it to be a lot earlier)

The peak revenue of 300cr, is excluding the packaging segment which can do a lot more then strapping segment once they get more approvals
They have also introduced another segment of products, primary packaging, which again is expected to be higher margin.

Have opened up their khaata with SAIL with 2 orders. Its very difficult to get into PSUs, SAIL has given them their smallest plant for now, SAIL has a lot many more plants, huge opportunity opens now.
Only 3 companies compete here, the new fourth one is krishca.

Mid East plan is still on, to setup a unit there, this can be very huge, as they will be the only one with a unit here and will be able to source rm from cheap asian countries, hence can compete even with china

Export sales is growing very rapidly, to do 30cr+ this yr and 100cr in the next 5yrs, i feel it can be done sooner.
Focusing on several new countries and already getting repeat orders, although smaller orders

The biggest risk here was a small TAM, but now they are getting into other prods (ofc a natural diversification and nothing else), these are higher margin then straps.

  • one expansion is done
  • new expansion is being planned
  • packaging segment is moving very well, considering its the first yr of operations
  • new geographies will now open up
  • new prods are being introduced

Also recently the company has given an intimation of a potential fund raise, which i assume will be used for this new expansion and the Mid East expansion.

there is detailed thread on this company, if needed

invested and biased

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TCS forming a nice H&S on weekly chart.
Breakout on daily chart seen

Disc: Holding, no recent transactions

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