@phreakv6 Thread accelerated my portfolio rebalance
On September 10, after going through the @phreakv6 thread after it got mentioned in the SOIC tweet, I became little uneasy. Bull therapy 101-thread for technical analysis with the fundamentals - #2282 by phreakv6
In the back of the mind there is one question that keeps going on,
Am I guessing the direction of market ?
I like that the answer for it to be No.
I have also learnt that staying in the market is more important from my first mistake that I did in 2020 by selling my mutual funds and trying to guess the market.
I like to think that the asset allocation change is not the guessing of the market. It is the things that people like me can do if they don’t want to guess the market.
I was already going for the portfolio rebalance earlier as 50 percent of the incremental amount was being invested in the arbitrage. Though after this tweet and going through the @phreakv6 thread, overnight I sold some amount of small cap mutual fund and shifted it to parag parikh tax saver and some amount to the arbitrage(fixed instrument). This helped me achieve asset allocation between caps. Also, this led to 20% in gold and fixed instruments which is good.
I am planning to further increase it to 25 percent with more incremental SIP in the arbitrage fund.
The reason behind the selling smallcap mutual fund instead of direct stocks were
- Canara robeco AUM has grown and hence its long term returns might suffer.
- I was more confident on my Indian stock portfolio and hence did not sold it
- I could easily get off the market in downturn but the canara robeco might face liquidity issue
I also stopped putting incremental money in canara robeco small cap through SIP.
Sold ITC in mother portfolio
In my mother portfolio, I sold the ITC to increase the allocation in fixed assets. One more reason was that I currently don’t see much growth in ITC now. It has been in the downward trend since some time and hence booked my profits. I sold it near to Rs. 440.
Exited HCG. Rumour of change in the management of HCG and HCG not declining this rumour
My whole thesis of HCG was for margin expansion but if the management is changing and I don’t know who the new management will be. It looked safe to exit it. It has given me 31 percent returns since I bought it sometime near the start of the year.
Story of GPIL
I entered into GPIL on 3 October with the stop loss(2 percent allocation) and took the exit on 4 October with 2 percent loss.
Few things about it
I did one thing right here was that I entered it with the stop loss as it has been commodity play and even though the cycle has not turned, it is showing growth in stock price.
It has variable margin and hence it has cyclic nature. At the first instance I should have never entered into it but still gave it a try.
One point to ponder is that, if the slope of the graph has flatten(Stage 3), maybe I should have not taken the technical entry. Maybe I am going too much in technical. Also there has been the case of Syngene which I bought when its slope was flat(Stage 1) and it has given me good returns. I should not think much of it anyways. I should remember that fundamental is the first filter for me.
I like the GPIL though as it has the lease of the mines till 2055.