Atirek portfolio

Q&A: Questions & Answers Portfolio Q&A
1

Please help me with feedback.

I came to know about stock market near 2007 to 2008, when my father used to invest in stock market and he lost money and stopped investing in stock market completely.
I thought, I have something in me and I would fare better, traded 30k after my jee exam and played with leverage in intraday and exhausted 20k of the total capital in 2014. Though I won money in initial few days but one big loss and then everything fell apart. My trick was simple buy low and sell high with margin. I had identified a trick that stocks were lower near 10:30 AM and hence would buy at that time and would then go to sleep and then sell in the afternoon. I can not be more wrong. Now I don’t trade and reading book by peter lynch got to know that it is good decision to do so.

After losing money I could not muster enough courage to look again at the market till 2019.
Started putting some money in many mutual funds to see which grows faster on groww. Some were tax savers. In March 2020, again got nervous but put some more money. In next few months, took out all the money from the mutual fund that allowed withdrawal as I had some profit and I thought the market rising is temporary and it will fall again.

Kept thinking the same, till early 2021. My tax saver in which I was unable to withdraw money was up 50 percent plus at the same time read pyschology of money and understood the power of regular sip compared to other possibilities. Started investing again, this time proper sip in mutual funds. Though for each category, picked 2-3 mutual funds and the total mutual funds in which I invested through sip went over 10. I also did other mistakes.

Over 1 year, kept reiterating and current sip in mutual fund looks like this -

  1. Navi Nifty 50 Index Fund - 10
  2. Navi Nasdaq 100 - 30
  3. Midcap 150 quality 50 - 15
  4. Canara robeco small cap - 20
  5. Parag parikh tax saver(use it as regular fund) - 25

I prefer mutual funds with low AUM and low beta. I mostly go behind good fund mangers and good fund house in case of active mutual funds.

Mutual funds are more than 70 percent of equity portfolio.

Less than 30 percent is in direct stocks that I have started few months back, thanks to few books and soic.

I though tried my luck in us stock investing in 2021 with small amount and learnt the power of picking profit making, usual suspects at good price. I learnt this by reiterating fast after losing some money in AIRBNB and then recovering back the money in usual suspects like apple, j&j, google after selling AIRBNB, UBER, Lyft and other stocks.

My US portfolio
Berkshire hathway - 5%
Avg price - $300
Anchor to stop losses.

Alphabet - 4%
Avg price $110
Category - fast grower
Ads industry in growing with double digit cagr and same goes for cloud.

Anti competition threats and charges by governments.

Amplitude - 3%
Avg $14.6
Category → Fast grower
It has just one competitor which is mixpanel but there business is still little different.
Revenue growth 50 percent cagr
Have 330 million dollar in bank, will last them 8 to 10 years
Have used its product, its awesome
Proxy to tech companies as they charge per api call or page visit in simple language
Tailwind due to google analytics end of life

Have broken my investment principal to invest in this as it is loss making company

Alibaba - 3%
Avg $95

Available at 10 PE considering normalised earnings. Munger has bought it. As I work in ecommerce and hence feel that only market leaders ecommerce platform with no competition has chance of earning money. Plus cloud business is like a commercial land business in offline world, where everyone needs servers to start business.
Us and china conflicts is negative.
ADR structure is negative.

My Indian portfolio
Maharastra scooters - 5%
Avg 4000
Category → asset play with dividend field
Book value → 5 times current price
Dividend → more than 2 percent
Parag parikh mutual fund increasing its stake in this company
Could not find any reason on why pure holding company should trade at discount

Negative - They invest some percentage of dividend in bajaj finance FDs.

Syngene - 4%
Avg 540

Category → Fast grower

  1. Revenue growing at 20 percent
  2. Outsourcing helps reduce cost for first world countries
  3. Industry cagr at 8 percent
  4. Betting on india manufactoring ability due to diversification on risk
  5. Getting into manufactoring which 4 to 5 times profit margin than contract research
  6. Getting into biological formulatioms
  7. Hold by top mutual fund like mirae assest focused fund
  8. India cmo cagr 13.3
  9. Removing the depreciation of current non operational plant in mangalore, its PE ratio of 30 is quite attractive
  10. Pharma industry spends 15 to 20 perfect on research. So proxy to pharma companies

Employees not getting good salary and recognition and hence attrition can happen. Also regular facility audits negatives.

Hdfc - 2.5%
Avg 2250
Current category - stalwart
Market leader in housing finance
Consistent compounder of book value, profit and revenue
Merger with hdfc bank which grows at faster rate
Dividend 1.5 percent
Housing finance - cagr 22 from 2021 to 2026

Bajaj consumer - 4%
Avg 158.5
Type turnaround play with zero debt
Available at attractive valuation
Dividend yield is high 5%
Their new products are doing good and they are building the brand
Bajaj brand has some market value
700 crore of cash with zero debt
PE 15
Inventory problems will not be there as variety of products in less(compared to clothing industry)

Negatives
Currently only dependent upon one product whose sale is not growing
Even in sale low mrp product of bajaj almond oil is selling
Profit growth is negative
Revenue growth is flatish

Have broken my investing principal to invest in this as it does not have growth.

2 Likes
2

I like to be free minded and hence these are my rules that suits me

  1. Try to select stocks in majorly stalwart, high growth and assest play as cyclical and turnaround tracking is very time consuming. Bajaj consumer is giving me tough time mentally.
  2. Stability of earnings and little debt so that the company does not die in a decade or so. So that I spend less time tracking it.
  3. Industry should be growing at healthy rates so that even if more competition comes, everyone should get pie of the cake.
  4. When investing, I look that the company should be market leader with little to no competition.
  5. I like dividend even if it is less than 1 percent. Reason behind this is that it tells us about the intent of the management. Also compounding can do wonder for the dividend also. Also I can not get over the idea that holding company without getting any parts of the profits is pure gambling. I consider increase in the price of the stock as a game of perception. For us stocks, I don’t buy stocks with dividend as it gets difficult to file returns.
  6. High ROCE and ROE business
3

Update
Increased my stakes in all four us stocks especially alphabet, avg price came down to 106$.

Exited Bajaj consumer because

  1. Sales of second quarter was not great at +7 percent yoy and down quarter on quarter.
  2. Turnaround play is not my forte
  3. I don’t use its oil neither I recommend to use it.
  4. I was not feeling comfortable with my buy price of 158.5 as I did not took enough margin of safety.
  5. Not comfortable with promoters capability.

Learnings

  1. Should accumulate a stocks over 2 quarters atleast to have better price and good margin of safety.
  2. Not try turnaround plays.
  3. Products of the company should be useful and not harmful.

Booked loss of under 3 percent.

4

Sir
You have written that you broke your principle and invested in this turn around company. May be this is the reason conviction level is not that strong in this company. I have also invested in this company but I have no issues as margins will be back in 1-2 years and there is a strong possibly of giving 100% return from the CMP with in 3 years. Still I may be wrong in my assessment.
Sir have you listened to concall this Qtr.

1 Like
5

Thanks for contributing and asking counter question. I am young and stupid, so please don’t call me sir.

Even I feel the same that it can give return when margin normalises but it was giving me hard time mentally as I am not comfortable with turnarounds. I felt this after buying bajaj consumer. I am more like passive investor, more inclined towards mutual funds and structually strong companies which I can hold for 10 years or more with better return than mutual funds.

I invested in it after last quarter result as it gave double digit sales growth and doing some research.

I have just went through their investor presentation this quarter not concall and it is not too bad. Considering that the company is small cap, I was expecting 20 percent cagr growth which I feel it will not able to provide.

I am more comfortable with structually strong company which I can hold for 10 years with good returns which I feel, bajaj consumer is not currently.

6

Just a thought as you said your a passive mutual.fund investor.
If you see the performance of flexicap funds, its around 15 to 18% while small cap.funds gave 18 to 20% .Quant AMC funds have given abnormal.returns around 25 to 40% in last 3 to 5 years. Also some factor based index like midcap 150 quality 50 have given more than 18% Returns…
So point to ponder, by giving our time and energy and considering opprtunity cost, gow much additional alpha we can add over and above the mutual.fund returns???

1 Like
7

wow is that YoY CAGR of 25-40%? If yes which are those funds and how did they manage this kind of return YoY over 5 years?

8

Most of my money goes into 5 mutual fund as mentioned above.

I also feel that mutual funds are better to deploy your most of the money and hence I have been doing this for more than year regularly.

Last year through my mother account, I bought ITC seeing parag parikh portfolio at avg price of 206. It was a very small allocation.

Over a year it gave more than 50 percent return, which gave me a hint that I can beat Indian mutual funds by intelligently copying them. It was also one of the reason that I have started direct investing in Indian stocks, few months ago.

So to copy mutual funds, you need to be creative and should use it as a screening mechanism rather than investing mechanism.

Screening stocks selected by highly rated mutual funds with low churn ratio has below advantages

  1. Mutual fund would have done the basic accounting and management analysis.
  2. Mutual funds might see growth in this stocks and low churn means that they are holding it for long term.
  3. Mutual fund disclose their holdings monthy.
  4. Valuation will be not high

This does not mean, you should not do your research but it means that you should try to find the reason what mutual funds saw in it by doing due diligence like going through annual report, concall, business review, screener page of the stocks, valuepickr page of the stock, etc.

Now the next question is how to screen stocks, I use below hypothesis, it is build on the idea that any mutual fund would not own more than 5 percent of any stocks due to liquidity problems.

  1. If a mutual fund has less number of stocks, let us say 26 in case of parag parikh flexi cap and aum of 20k crore, and it adds a stock like maharastra scooters by buying 5 percent of the company but it just become 0.12 of the mutual fund portfolio(increasing the number of stocks to be tracked by one), given it was able to make it 5 percent of its portfolio in other mutual fund of its own house which is its tax saver fund, then the mutual fund house is very bullish on it and it can work as a screening criteria for you.
    It works over the advantage we have over mutual fund as we don’t have to manage huge AUM and we can buy as many stocks of a company as we like without causing any liquidity problems. Bought majority of maharastra scooter at avg price of 3600. Now it is around 5000 in few months.

  2. Newly added stocks added by good mutual funds tends to perform better than its old holdings according to my few months of experience. Same stock should be added by more than one mutual fund from different mf houses to reduce noise. I still have to backtest this theory. I got to pick Prudent Corporate Advisory Services Ltd at 540 in my mother portfolio though sold it after earning some money as it was shallow cyclical fundamentally. It is over 800 in few months.

  3. Some stocks comes in top five holdings of a prominent mutual fund like parag parikh in one month. The mutual fund AUM should not be big enough as universe of stocks in which mutual fund can take meaningful stake decreases steeply with increase in AUM. Try to select mutual funds with AUM less than 20000 crore for this method. By this way I filtered HDFC which is a proxy for HDFC bank and had arbitage advantage over HDFC bank at the time of my buying same as parag parikh. Thanks to today’s return, I am up 20 percent in few months.

As you can see, we need a mutual funds based screener and hence we made a screener based on mutual fund and we let people apply filters over mutual fund last month holdings over different params. It is still not for public use.

Syngene and Bajaj consumer, I screened through different methods btw.
Screening us stocks is also different as we have build our system for indian mutual funds.

I am young and stupid and can go terribly wrong. I am trying to use mutual funds disadvantages over us retail investors to my advantage to gain alpha over them.

Only in few months I get stocks to invest after filtering using this method and then doing research, hence I got tempted to screen stocks using different method, like bajaj consumer and I guess it failed. I need to keep my patience and keep observing as most of the months I might not get any stocks. This is also one of my learning from bajaj consumer. What forced me to buy bajaj consumer was that I wanted to diversify to different sector and no of different stocks in which I invest to 8.

I am young and stupid and can go terribly wrong.

I am trying to use mutual funds disadvantages over us, retail investors to my advantage to gain alpha over them

.

2 Likes
9

Screenshot_20221112_000722
Screenshot_20221112_0007221080×726 125 KB

Screenshot_20221112_000630
Screenshot_20221112_0006301080×728 133 KB

Screenshot_20221112_001135
Screenshot_20221112_0011351080×720 117 KB

1 Like
10

Mutual funds can buy stocks for very different reasons. Many times they just buy it, because they are getting so much money monthly and they cant sit on cash…its their compulsion. Also we dont know what is their exact criteria of selection. Even in case of superstar investors like Ashish Kacholia, Vijay Kedia etc, i never find their portfolio stocks worthy of investments most of the time. Most of those stocks have very weak parameters like low ROE, ROCE, sales, profits growth and debt to equity ratio. I dont select stocks which have these parameters in adverse conditions. Why these investors select such stocks is beyond my comprehension. May be they are playing some other game altogether, and I am.not there yet…But never mind. I wont invest in anything which i dont understand.

5 Likes
11

Maybe over a year, I will understand more about it and its success in generating alpha. Thanks for asking insightful question btw.

Having more filters, reduces noise you are talking about and it is very simple to apply filters in my mutual fund tracking system.

Also, we don’t have any big advantages over them as we have over mutual fund houses as they have relatively less money to invest. They are not as strictly monitored by SEBI as mf and can indulge in fraud. Their holdings is disclosed quaterly while mutual fund disclose it monthly.

12

Update - Initiated position in amazon. Mostly because of AWS only.

Got the increment and hence sip in mutual fund changed a bit. Did not add any new mutual fund, just increased the SIP amount

The logic behind selection of mutual fund.

  1. In active category, I prefer relatively low AUM and low beta mutual funds.
  2. In passive category, low expense ratio with low tracking error and AUM above certain threshold.
  3. For debt funds, I prefer short term debt fund with a very good amount of AUM and from trusted fund house, prefably from big reputed banks.

Current SIP structure(out of 100% that goes into mutual fund)
Icici prudential short term debt fund - 20
Navi nasdaq 100 - 20
UTI midcap 150 quality 50 - 10
Navi nifty 50 - 10
Parag parikh tax saver - 25
Canara robeco small cap - 15

As mostly, index fund outperform the active funds in usa, hence nasdaq 100 index fund is selected.

As most of the large cap fund underperform the benchmark, hence nifty 50 index fund.

As in midcap category, wanted to select something with low beta and similar performance to midcap 150 index, hence selected midcap 150, quality 50. Also, in index fund, we don’t have to think much about, how performance of mutual fund depends upon the universe of stocks in which mutual fund can invest due to regulatory concerns and its AUM.

Also in midcap, universe of stocks is 150 and hence any good fund manager might not outperform the benchmark due to regulatory concerns over limited number of stocks he can invest most money in. Hence it is better to buy complete universe(same as large cap).

In active funds, I have a lot of belief on Ajay khandelwal of canara robeco small cap and Rajeev Thakkar of parag parikh. To take advantage of their complete ability of picking good stocks and investing, we should choose funds managed by them with low AUM(universe of stocks in which a mutual fund can invest decreases with increase in AUM) and funds where they can invest in most of the stocks as per regulations like tax saver, flexi cap or small cap.

Disclosure - Have started working for one of the company in whose mutual fund I invest my money.

2 Likes
13

Hi if you could.throw some.light on selecting Parag parikh Tax fund instead of parag parikh flexicap fund?

1 Like
14

Parag parikh flexi cap AUM has increased a lot, it might find harder to perform in years to come as its AUM increases more.

Universe of stocks, whom mutual fund can make it more than 5 percent of portfolio decreases with increase in AUM.

Let me help you with an example. You might have seen in case of maharastra scooters, parag parikh flexi and tax saver both bought it but it is just a small size of parag parikh flexi portfolio, even though flexi cap fund owns substaintial shares in maharastra scooters.
Can you think of more such examples where a small cap was added in parag parikh tax saver but not in flexi cap version?

Generally, a mutual fund can make stocks, more than 5 percent of its portfolio, only in companies with market cap greater than its AUM, without facing any liquidity issues.

Therefore with increase in AUM, universe of stocks in which a mutual fund can take meaningful stake by making it more than 5 percent of its portfolio decreases with increase in AUM.

Try finding number of stocks with market cap greater than 50000, 40000, 20000, 10000, 5000, 2000 and 1000. Things will become clear.

Though some mutual funds can even perform better after huge AUM like nippon small cap fund, which is an exception by diversifying a lot. Parag parikh flexi can also become an exception due to capable managment but risk and reward is not in our favour. Also, considering we have an alternative, why invest in flexi cap with huge AUM?

This is also one of the major reason, I invest in passive index funds as at some point in time, every mutual fund needs to diversify a lot to perform with huge AUM. So it is better to invest in index fund.

Also, this is one of the major reason, I invest some part of money directly in stock market as I feel active mutual funds might find it hard to beat index funds in coming years when their universe of stocks decreases with increase in AUM, due to huge inflow of money that mutual funds is seeing.

3 Likes
15

Agree with above thoughts but Prag parekh flexicap has exposure of foreign stocks too upto 25% which is an added flavour which is absent in Tax fund.
From index part perspective , overall my mutual funds portfolio, i have divided into 3 parts -

  1. Index category -
    Where i have invested in UTI Nifty 50 index, UTI Nifty Next 50 and recently DSP Nifty midcap 150 quality 50 index. So top 100 companies through index funds and in next 150 through smart beta index fund as all are not good in midcap 150.

  2. In flexicap, i have simply gone with top AMCs
    Parag parekh fkexicap due to its foreign stock exposure as i am.not doing any direct stock investment abroad. Then HDFC fkexicap, SBI focussed and Quant Active fund.

  3. In small cap category, as i want to take higher risk, i m into Quant small cap, Sbi small cap SIP as lumpsum not alllowed and Nippon small cap.
    Currently my mutual fund portfolio is 20% in total and direct stocks 80%. I am fast increasing it into mutual funds with 50% in each ,as first target.
    Large AUM has their own advantages too as NAV dosenot fall that drastically under redemption pressure.

2 Likes
16

I also used to have a lot of mutual funds but it gets difficult to track them, also the overlapping concerns and there is not too many good mutual fund present in the market that I am interested.

I like low AUM and low beta, active mutual funds from good fund managers.

Do you have any examples where you might have seen it or any references?

1 Like
17

its not possible to give example of this as this data is available with respective AMCs , how much redemption had come during different sell-off periods and how much extent NAV had nose-dived. But logical thing is , if AUM size is low and there is huge redemption pressure, then since everybody is trying to get out, NAV will fall drastically. But if AUM is on higher side, it wont affect that much…

18

According to me, I can be wrong, the redemption will be percentage based. As large AUM will have more investors and less AUM will have typically less investors, hence less AUM is not a problem.

Though I will like to put counter argument that with high AUM, to gain performance, some mutual funds might invest in illiquid stocks or own a huge amount of stocks in a company that they might not be able to sell in downturn at good prices.

19

Amazon currently 2% of my total investment at avg price of $85.
Took tracking position in Narayana health.

Reasons
Good managment
Ethical management
Permanent trigger for growth
Long term debt near to cash equivalents
Lowest cost producer
Glassdoor rating is equal to its peers
Profitable

Things to watch
Need to watch capex types
Available at 5 times sales which is on higher side.

How did I know about NH?
SOIC was talking about it and helped me understand it.
Came into mutual fund filter as axis mutual fund was increasing stakes in it.

1 Like
20

Sold Berkshire hathway as I feel it might not grow much due to its huge size and us market is not too bad recently. Invested those money by increasing stakes in amplitude, alphabet and amazon.

Stocks is now nearly 25 percent of investment as I save most of my incremental money into mutual funds.

Also sold hdfc as again did not want to track a lot of companies and hdfc seemed mature enough. Also had good profit in last 6 months.

Bought more of syngene.
Increased stakes in Narayana Health.

Started position in HCG. Again a turnaround play which I am not comportable with but I consider it as a growth stock due to multiple levers of growth due to reducing depreciation, debt and industry structure.

My short analysis about NH
General
Good managment
Ethical management
Permanent trigger for growth
Available at 5 times sales which is on higher side
Long term debt near to cash equivalents
Lowest cost producer
Glassdoor rating is equal to its peers
Profitable
Lifestyle diseases is increasing

Negatives
Need to watch capex types

Industry
Double digit expenditure growth
70 crore of population is under 70 which will change in coming years
Out of pocket expenditure will reduce with insurance. Indian currently has 63 percent out of pocket expenditure when compared to 11 percent in usa.

Rerating
Chances of derating as margin is 20 percent.
Chances of rerating as PE ratio is low compared to competitors

Debt
600 crore of long term, 500 crore of cash.
Not much debt

Current portfolio (Out of money invested in stocks)

  1. Amplitude(16.5%)

  2. Alphabet(16.5%)

  3. Amazon(11.5%)

  4. Alibaba(11%)

  5. Syngene(19.5%)

  6. Maharastra scooters(16%)

  7. Narayana Health(4.8%)

  8. HCG(4%)

1 Like