Ashiana had a muted quarter in terms of presales due to very low inventory to sell. Their launch pipeline looks very healthy in next few quarters which gives them comfort to grow presales at 15-20% in next 2-3 years. Concall notes below.
FY24Q3
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Current pipeline : 12 lakh sq.ft in ongoing projects + 80 lakh sq.ft in future projects + 21 lakh sq.ft in land (excluding Milakpur) ~ 113 lakh sq.ft
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Didn’t launch any new projects in Q3 and had limited inventory to sell
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Confident of 15-20% CAGR growth in presales over next 2-3 years (in a lumpy way). Looking to reach 30 lakh sq.ft pre-sales sustainably
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November 2023 launches : Malhar Phase II + Tarang Phase V
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Q4 launches :
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New projects: Ashiana Nitara (Jaipur), One 44 (Jaipur) - will launch 5-6 lakh sq.ft out of 24-25 lakh sq.ft
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Amarah Phase III: 3.77 lakh sq.ft (can slip to Q1FY25). Will see 40% price increase
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Will cross 1500 cr. presales if they launch Amarah in Q4. Otherwise presales will be 1250-1300 cr.
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FY25 launch : 3 projects (30 lakh sq.ft)
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Near term launch pipeline: New project in Gurugram, 3 projects in Jaipur, 2 in Chennai
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Realizations : 4,700-7,000 for senior living; 3,500-7,000 for premium homes, 4,500-8,000 for kid-centric home
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Except in Bhiwadi, demand is very strong in other micro markets
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Exited Kolkata project (Ashiana Maitri/Nitya)
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Sold Marine Plaza Project in Jamshedpur (litigated non-core asset) in Q2 with a loss at gross margin level
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Gross margins may reach 30% in FY25
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Land prices have gone out of whack in Gurugram, and apartment prices haven’t kept up
Disclosure: Invested (position size here, no transactions in last-30 days)