CRISIL Equities initiated coverage on Ashiana with a valuation grade of â5/5â, indicating that the market price of Rs 166 (as on November 03, 2010) has a âstrong upsideâ from the current levels.We have used the NAV method to value Ashiana and arrived at a one-year fair value of Rs 220 per share.
Delhi-based Ashiana Housing Ltd (Ashiana) is a mid-sized real estate player focused on affordable homes and retirement housing projects. It has developed ~9 mn sq.ft. of area and has a healthy pipeline of ~7 mn sq.ft. over the next four-five years. However, limited land bank inventory reduces future visibility. We assign Ashiana a fundamental grade of â3/5â, indicating that its fundamentals are âgoodâ relative to other listed securities in India.
Strong track record - known for quality construction and transparent business
Ashianaâs past track record and a robust pipeline of projects clearly support the fact that it is an established player in the industry. Its position is supported by superior quality of construction, timely delivery and transparent business structure. This enables Ashiana to sell properties at premium rates compared to its peersâ projects in the same location. We expect this trend to continue in the future.
Business model different from peers; well positioned to weather cyclical risks
Unlike other real estate players, Ashiana builds residential projects which are generally self-sufficient in terms of funding as against commercial projects. The company does not build a huge land bank reserve or engage in buying expensive land parcels. This results in comparatively lower capital requirement and consequently limited financial liabilities. Therefore, we believe that Ashiana is well positioned to withstand cyclical risks compared to peers; it was least affected during the economic downturn in FY09.
Cautious strategy on land bank inventory reduces future visibility
Although the companyâs strategy of holding limited land bank mitigates the downside risk, it reduces revenue visibility beyond five-six years. Therefore, future growth will be dependent on the companyâs ability to continuously acquire land bank at reasonable prices in an increasingly competitive market. The company is looking for land parcels, but we believe there will be challenges in a new market since real estate requires knowledge of local business environment and customer expectation.
Revenues to grow at a two-year CAGR of 40%, EPS to increase to Rs 34.3 in FY12
Revenues are expected to grow at a two-year CAGR of 40% to Rs 2.2 bn in FY12 driven by revenue recognition in Bhiwadi, Lavasa and Jaipur projects. EBITDA margins are expected to increase to 36.8% in FY12 from 34.9% in FY10 due to increasing contribution from high-margin residential projects. PAT is expected to increase at a CAGR of 30.7% to Rs 0.6 bn in FY12. EPS is expected to increase to Rs 34.3 in FY12 from Rs 20.1 in FY10.
Valuation - the current market price has strong upside
We have used the NAV method to value Ashiana and arrived at a one-year fair value of Rs 220 per share. We initiate coverage on Ashiana with a valuation grade of â5/5â, indicating that the market price of Rs 166 (as on November 03, 2010) has a âstrong upsideâ from the current levels.