Akash Portfolio

I took a position in AVG Logistics.

It provides following services:
Transportation: Express Delivery, Refrigerated Transportation, Freight Forwarding, etc
Warehousing: Manpower Handling, Packaging, Multi-User Warehouse facility, etc
Value-Added Services like custom clearance, E2E solution, Multimodal transportation, Reverse logistics, etc.

Key points:

  1. They are investing in cold chain logistics which will become a big industry going forwards.
  2. Dedicated freight corridors by the government should benefit this company. This is from their website, “We are a market leader in providing different rail cargo services to our customers, such as Full rack and peace meal transportation, container movement & terminal management across all CONCOR ICDs.”
  3. The company is promoted by Mr. Sanjay Gupta, who is hailed as a veteran in the logistics sector and possesses strong leadership experience in multi-modal logistics management.
  4. They have Improved margins by controlling operating expenses.
  5. They are raising funds which should reduce the debt to equity ratio in the future thereby increasing the financial strength.

Risks:

  1. The Indian logistic industry is highly fragmented with stiff competition. Intense competition restricts the bargaining power and affects the profit margins to an extent.
  2. Any slowdown in domestic and global manufacturing/industrial activities, due to weak economic conditions or restrictive trade policies, can have a negative impact on the company’s revenues and its cash flows.

Looks an interesting company. Strangely never heard of it and neither of bajaj electricals EPC business prior to demerger…Voltas also has EPC business and we hear a lot about it…maybe I didnt follow bajaj electricals well…

Some thoughts and would be good to know your views…

  1. For Voltas, EPC part has always been a struggling business. When entire power spectrum in market making new highs, not sure why the EPC part of these businesses not doing good.
  2. How should one value the EPC business…which is closest competetor for Bajel or even the EPC part of Voltas?
  3. Is EPC part of Voltas same as Bajel?
  4. Bajaj electricals has mcap of around 11k crores and Bajel at present as around 2K crores…in this context is 2k crore cheap or expensive? How to see value here…
  5. In one of your points I saw this is 15 years old business of bajaj electricals…Now should we take it as positive or negative…positive being it has a history & experience to look at and negative that even after 15 years the order book is only around 1500 crore? Is this really negative or not? Maybe with demerger the focus on this business increase…not sure…
  6. Was checking on new MD…he has all his experience in oil & gas companies rather than electricals, power or infra…not sure if right fit…I maybe wrong…

Thanks for always introducing new interesting companies to look at :slight_smile:

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Bajel EPC business is in transmission lines. The closest peers are K E C International Ltd and Kalpataru Projects International Ltd. Voltas EPC deals with mining, water management and treatment, construction equipments and textile industry.

https://www.screener.in/company/compare/00000008/00000102/

These are low margin business with intense competition.
Recent results shows good sales growth, but the company made a loss this quarter.

Looking at today’s result, 200 Cr quarterly sales if extrapolated will give 800 Cr annual sales. So the company appears expensive on price to sales basis. More clear picture will emerge in the next quarter.

This is what I am expecting to happen. Recent push by government to power sector should increase business of allied industries. Being in the business for a long time will help them get orders due to reliability. Their choice of business and execution will determine the future.

Yes this seems to be the case. But he is a mechanical engineer so will look for execution.

Thanks for analysing them. Please keep giving feedback.

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How was your experience with index investing and also with active mutual funds investing?
Also your experience with buy and hold strategy?

Index investing
In 2018, I read a book called “The Little Book of Common Sense Investing’’ by John Bogle. The main concept of the book was that markets were efficient and it is difficult to beat it regularly as shown by poor performance of active mutual fund managers. So invest in a low cost index fund and beat most of the active funds due to low fees. I was very impressed by the narrative and started researching index funds in India.
I found that the nifty alpha low volatility index was the best performing index. No fund was available for that so I started my sip into the nifty next 50 index fund through my bank mutual fund. After one month I found that they had entered my details wrong. So I exited the fund and started researching again.
I found some negative facts regarding indexing. Only investors of US and India advice indexing. The reason being that these are the best performing index and the advisors are suffering from hindsight bias. Imagine advising a Chinese person in his 30s about index funds in 2004. After 20 years he has nothing to show for it. Active managers could have changed allocation and started investing globally like the advisors from Europe.
So if one is indexing he is actively betting on the country. There is nothing passive about it. Another idea is to add a global index fund but then it becomes more active, why not just invest in active fund with international exposure like Parag Parikh.

Mutual fund
I had invested in Reliance Small Cap Fund with good results. I got scared when the bear market came and only large caps were performing. So I exited and bought a debt fund.
Franklin India Ultra Short Debt Fund was the best performing one at the time. I used to watch Freefincal videos by @pattu at the time. He mentioned that the bonds the fund invested in were risky. I exited it just in time to see the fund collapse. I have not invested in any mutual fund since then.

Buy and Hold
My best returns came from buy and hold strategy. It was mostly due to the timing of investment during Corona peak. I could not hold my positions till now as I was in need of urgent funds and I was fully invested at the time. I will have to calculate and see if my returns would have been better or worse if I held my positions. Currently I am trying buy and hold but reading
Mark Minervini book, so may change strategy at some point.

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Very roller coaster type journey. So currently how much % into stocks and MFs?
Also whats ur opinion about Flexicap funds who have given arpund 20% CAGR in last 10 years and some small cap funds who have given 25-28% CAGR in last 10 years?

I don’t have any investment in mutual funds now. Most of my portfolio is in stocks and real estate. I have some investments in PPF and FD.
Flexicap funds are good for most investors but the expectation should be kept at 15 to 18%. High returns at present is due to bull run at present. They tend to normalise with bear market. Regular sip with top up in a bear market will give good returns in the long term.

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Exicom Telesystem is coming with an IPO.

Exicom Tele-Systems Limited specializes in power systems, electric vehicle (EV) charging, and other related solutions. The company operates under two business verticals.

Power Systems: Exicom provides uninterrupted power solutions for digital communication networks.

EV Charging Solutions: Exicom has deployed over 6,000 AC and DC chargers in India and Southeast Asia. Their EV charging solutions are designed to withstand harsh environmental and electrical conditions.

However, the promoter group was involved in the 2G spectrum scam.

Quote,
“The latest to come under the scanner of the Central Bureau of Investigations (CBI), which is probing the alleged irregularities in allocation of 2G spectrum during former telecom minister Andimuthu Raja’s regime, are the Nahatas of telecom equipment manufacturer Himachal Futuristic Communications Ltd (HFCL).

According to sources in the know of information dug out by the investigative agency, the Nahatas had applied for 2G licence in 2008.

The Nahatas, who were allocated a pan-India licence to run GSM-based mobile telephone services, formed Datacom and sold 64% stake in it to the Dhoots of Videocon Group.

They finally exited the venture in 2010 by offloading their entire stake to the Dhoots at a premium after engaging in a bitter battle. According to a source, the Nahatas are said benefited by `400 crore from the licence. Attempts to reach HFCL chairman Mahendra Nahata were unsuccesful.

The source said Nahata was able to secure the 2G licence as he already had experience of operating in the telecom sector and knew how the “telecom ministry machinery worked.”

The source, however, could not give exact details of how the kickback money was routed to Raja and his associates.”

Detailed article on the scam is in the link below.

In short, the allotment of spectrum was done in a dubious way with speculation of kickback by the allottees. The allottees further sold the spectrum to other companies to gain profit. The price of allotment was also low based on old data.

The promoter group company HFCL was also involved in manipulation in the past.

A remark regarding SEBI action is documented in the DRHP but it seems to be related to a different case.

Quote from DRHP,
“Certain members of our Promoter Group have been subject to actions by regulatory authorities such as the Securities and Exchange Board of India (“SEBI”) and the Stock Exchanges Certain members of our Promoter Group, being Abhilash Growth Fund Private Limited, J.L. Growth Fund Limited, Nahar Growth Fund Private Limited, Vanaik Investors Limited and Kamal Oswal were in the past debarred from buying/selling/dealing/undertaking/participating in IPO in/of securities or specified scrips directly or indirectly, each from June 4, 2013, due to the inability of Abhilash Growth Fund Private Limited to adhere to the minimum public shareholding requirements prescribed under applicable laws. These debarment orders issued by SEBI were revoked on April 16, 2014 and as on the date of this Red Herring Prospectus, the said entities are not debarred. Furthermore, as on the date of this Red Herring Prospectus, our Company, the Promoters (including the Promoter Selling Shareholder), the members of our Promoter Group, and our Directors are not debarred from accessing the capital market by SEBI. Further, our Promoters are also promoters of a company forming part of our Promoter Group and identified as our Group Company, being HFCL Limited, which is listed on the Stock Exchanges and has in the past been subject to certain regulatory action including the levy of monetary penalties by the Stock Exchanges in relation to noncompliance with certain requirements of the SEBI Listing Regulations. “

I have observed that these types of companies give good returns in the short term, maybe due to operator activity. The business seems fine and in a fancy area of EV charging. People seem to have forgiven HFCL for any wrongdoing of the past. I would observe this one from sidelines.

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In 2022, I purchased two Tata electric vehicles and I think in both the cases this company and its equipment was installed at my place for charging my cars and I have not had any problems in the past year and a half. So, I would say that at least their electric vehicle chargers are doing the job which they are supposed to.

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Many MoUs are taking places for EV charging infra installations. Government is committed to EV penetration and establishing the EV eco system. OEMs are establishing EV chargers at residential places, corporate offices, public parking spaces. Charging point operators are doing MoUs for establishing Ev charging infra across the country. Exicom as a manufacturer cater to all these CPOs, OEMs, corporates, fleet operators etc

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Portfolio update

Current portfolio

  1. Senco Gold Ltd
    They are focusing on eastern and northern parts of the country for expansion. They soft launched SENNES brand for lab-grown diamond jewellery and leather accessories in few stores in Kolkata. The growth should be in the range of 15 to 20% for the foreseeable future.

  2. E2E Networks Ltd
    The company provides Cloud computing services. It is focused on AI/ML workloads and aims to provide cost-effective solutions compared to global hyperscale Cloud players. E2E focuses on start-ups and the MSE segment. It has run up a lot last year so I am increasing my holding slowly in this.

I have shifted some companies to my family portfolio.

Family portfolio:
Central Depository Services Limited
Senco Gold Ltd
Indian Renewable Energy Development Agency Ltd
Inox India Limited
Bajel Projects Limited
KP Green Engineering Ltd

KP Green Engineering Ltd manufactures fabricated and hot-dip galvanized steel products. It is part of the KP group. This was acquired through IPO and not planning to hold for long.

Mistakes I made this year:

  1. Panic selling and buying
    This has led to an increase in tax amount.
  2. Low conviction bets
    This was the reason for panic selling.

I will try to hold companies for longer duration in the next financial year. I am studying some industries for diversification also.

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can you pls elaborate what is family portfolio and your own portfolio…do you maintain two seperate to save tax? Is family pirtfolio a joint portfolio or its on name of family…like a trust etc?

I was getting jittery so I transferred stocks to my wife portfolio for safekeeping for longer duration :smiley:. It saves tax also but that was not in my mind. In Zerodha they show the whole holdings in family portfolio feature.

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Hi Aakash
I have a query regarding AVG Logistics.
As of Sep-23 Balance Sheet, the company is having 139Cr of receivables out of which 50cr is more than 6 months. Why are the receivables so high when the company is doing business for Reputed customers like Nestle and Pepsico?

It is a small company operating in a competitive industry with no advantage. The big players might go to other logistic companies if they give better terms.
The debtor days are higher than peers but the cash flow from operations to profit is healthy so I will not worry too much regarding the receivables.
Disclosure: Not invested.

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Quarterly report where the company forgot to upload the results😃.

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Portfolio update:
Current portfolio

  1. Senco Gold
    Company came up with good results. They are guiding for 20% growth going forward.
    They are trying new products like luxury bags and lab grown diamonds via a newly launched Sennes brand. Good thing is they have only launched 3 stores and did a soft launch to see traction rather than going all in.
    Expansion in the north and central region will increase the stud ratio due to diamond preference of the customers there.

  2. E2E Networks
    Company came up with good results. They have ambitious plan of huge capex of 800 Cr in this financial year.
    The demand of cloud computing is going to increase as the use of artificial intelligence goes mainstream.
    They are planning to target big institution in addition to the startup ecosystem going forward.

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I must say very concentrated portfolio. do you now have 100% equity in these two or invested in MF also? Would be good to know you asset allocation percentage like Real rstate, equity rtc. Thanks!

The combined portfolio is as below:

Investment Allocation
Real Estate 53%
Direct Equity 30%
Fixed Deposit 8%
National Savings Certificate 4%
Public Provident Fund 2%
National Pension Scheme 2%
Savings Account 1%
Total 100%

I don’t have investment in mutual funds but have majority of my investment in real estate. The valuation of real estate is a guess work based on buying value which was surprising to me. I always thought I had most of my investment in equity. On liability side also, I have loan related to real estate only.
I tried to diversify my equity portfolio and made some profits also. But I have a tendency to sell low conviction stocks in panic so couldn’t make any big money in them. So I am studying some companies to get familiarity so I can stay for longer in them.

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Hi @akash_das, any thoughts on adding Senco now? Understand that its price has appreciated, but looking at the ambitions, do you think it will be prudent to add at the current level?