Aegis Logistics - Can It Be Exception?

Aegis reported flattish nos, its good to see that their terminalling volumes are now consistently over 1mn MT and management is confident of 20%+ volume growth in FY25 (probably reaching 5mn MT). Concall notes below.

FY24Q3 concall

  • Pipavav: Commissioned spheres of 3700 MT generated revenues in Q3

  • Haldia: Industrial distribution is small here, will look to slowly build up

  • Sourcing volumes: 1.79 lakh MT in Q3 (vs 2 lakh MT in Q3FY23)

  • Terminaling volumes: 1’097’000 MT in Q3 (vs 988’000 MT in Q3FY23). Expect 20% volume growth in FY25 (from existing assets)

  • Commercial & Industrial:

    • 144’000 in Q3 (vs 131’000 MT in Q2FY24, 157’000 MT in Q3FY23)

    • Margins vary from 2500-3200 which causes volatility in reported EBITDA from gas segment

    • Reduction is natural gas prices has not impacted volumes (QoQ basis).

    • Customers have been using natural gas and propane as two alternate fuels. Have been focusing on converting more customers to have the dual fuel option

    • Newer bottling plants that Aegis has been putting up has helped them increase their reach to smaller companies

    • Current price differential between LPG and LNG is 10-15% (after accounting for calorific value)

  • Liquid capacity: will reach 1.9 mn kl post current expansion (vs 1.6 mn kl in FY23). Will increase by further 300,000 kl in FY25

  • Ammonia: Working on an active set of projects which will be announced when its confirmed

  • Capex: announced projects of 1750 cr. will be finished in next 18-24 months

  • Cash: 1700 cr. (debt: 1200 cr.)

Disclosure: Invested (position size here, bought shares in last-30 days)