Aegis Logistics - Can It Be Exception?

Aegis reported another good set of nos with 31% growth in earnings. Kandla terminalling operations have started and management is guiding 4mn+ terminalling volumes in FY24. In addition, they have added a large number of industrial customers in retailing business. Concall notes below.

FY23Q3 concall

  • Future growth drivers: Ramp up of gas volume in Kandla, increase in gas volumes in Pipavav and Haldia due to jetty commissioning, ramp up in industrial distribution volumes from Kandla, ramp up in liquid volumes
  • Growth headwinds: Lower LPG distribution to industrial customers if LNG prices correct a lot
  • Pipavav: LPG jetty work for handling VLGC got completed and is awaiting approval for commercialization
  • Kandla: Commenced LPG handling
  • Haldia: Additional Jetty commissioned increasing unloading rates, operations have now normalized
  • Mumbai: Operating LPG at full capacity
  • Autogas division: Quarterly volumes was 5’100 MTPA (flat QoQ)
  • Commercial & industrial volumes were 151’400 MT in this quarter (vs 191’300 MT in H1FY23), huge ramp up has happened here.
  • Distribution margins will be maintained at Rs. 3000/MT
  • Total sourcing tender volume contracts for CY22 was 800’000 MTPA. They did volumes of 658’000 MT vs 286’000 MT last year
  • Additional liquid capacity of 50’000 MT will be commissioned by end of FY23
  • LPG comes from refineries or from natural gas fields. Management believes no new refinery capacities will come onstream. Some of the existing refineries (e.g. Bhatinda refinery) will be switching out of LPG to higher value products which might imply that domestic LPG supply will not increase over the next decade
  • In gas logistics division, 1mn quarterly run rate should be sustainable (did 988’000 MT this quarter). Confident of doing 4mn run rate in FY24 in logistics
  • In Morbi, 70-80% conversions have happened from LNG to LPG
  • Keshav Shenoy was made President - Strategic Planning
  • Large addition in industrial customers with a lot of new names (highlighted customers not mentioned in previous presentation)

Disclosure: Invested (position size here, sold shares in last-30 days)

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