A Monthly chart that i am finding interesting is that of TVS Electronics:
The stock gave a multi year slant breakout in May 2014 at ~ 18 odd levels.
The rally continued till it topped out in Oct 2017 at with a high of ~ 520.
What is interesting is that one could have played the entire rally if one kept the 20 month moving average as a trailing stop loss.
Multiple patterns formed and broke out along the way, while still touching and respecting the 20 month MA.
Since topping out in 2017, the stock now seems to be forming an excellent CUP base over the last 6 years.
The 20 month MA has been respected in the upmove from Covid lows as well.
The RSI also seems to be shaping up well and could lead to a break out.
Possibilities could be a straight breakout from the CUP base pattern or formation of a handle ( key monitorable will be retracement of 0.5-0.618 levels if a handle does form).
All in all, looking like a good setup for a bullish run in the future.
TARC Ltd is a Leading Luxury Real Estate Developer from Delhi. Technically chart is poised interestingly at 61 - 62 levels after breaking out its previous all-time high of 60.80 which it made in Jan 2022.
Fundamentally TARC has a considerable land bank (550+ acres) in and around Delhi and is in the process of developing the same.
Management has retired its old debt which was at a higher interest rate after securing stable funding in the form of Ncd’s from Bain Capital last year.
Tarc is aiming for 5,500 crores of Gross development value from its upcoming projects in the coming years. In Fy 23 they achieved a Project Sales value of 520 crores and are aiming for 2500 crores by the end of Fy 25
Disclosure - Invested
Small Inverse H&S (blue) seen giving breakouts leading to formation of a bigger Inverse H&S (pink).
The stock has broken out and retested the bigger Inv H&S and moving higher now.
One can see that the Bigger Right shoulder also has formed a Cup & Handle pattern before breaking out (more clearly visible on a 2hr, 3hr time frame chart)
Below charts are of high growth stories and post-covid IPO boom that happened. All of them were beaten down heavily (just like Nasdaq 100 biggies) and have created a decent base in last 1+ years and are making new 52w highs or very close to making 52w highs with pick-up in volumes in last couple of months. Only time will tell if these are about to move to Stage 2 move from here on and worth keeping a close eye on.
Zomato has given a good range/double bottom breakout by breaking out above levels of 75 (one can consider a range of 72-76 or such similar range ) The bottom was at 45 and breakout range was at 75, which provides a distance of 30 rs to the pattern. Adding this 30 Rs to breakout level of 75 provides targets of 105. On line chart this target comes to 100.
disc: Bought Zomato recently post this breakout for trading positions . Usually once a stock breaks out of a strong resistance zone, there is often some retest at some point of time. And that is the time to be observant of the behaviour of the stock price as to how it behaves during the periods of retest. Sometimes it is a few days and sometimes it is a few weeks. Main thing is to see that key levels are not broken and stock prices consolidates above those levels.
Putting up a chart of Zomato ( highlighted earlier by @rupaniamit ) … Looks like the previously fancied platform companies are attempting a rally. Whether it becomes a major trend change, or is just a dead cat bounce needs to be seen.
Time techno ( cmp 117) had an early stage breakout 87-88, and then stock price went up and hit a swing high of 109.50 and then went on to form a flag formation which lasted a few days. Post this, it broke out again and now is consolidating around 117, and target of flag breakout is close to 140. Nowadays, a lot of noise/newflow is brewing up about fundamental prospects of the company.
Rpel(Raghav ptodutivity enhancers limited). For the last one month the stock was consolidating between 983 and 865.Today it closed near four week high@974 ,which is a sign of strong momentum building up in the counter.
A spurt above 983 can lif prices to 1100+ levels in the very short term
An Interesting Pattern i am observing in the Monthly Time Frame chart of Dlink India:
Have come across a few examples exhibiting the same, will post their charts first, followed by the chart of Dlink India:
In Multi Year Breakouts, on Monthly TF, when a Horizontal Trendline is drawn, one can observe a breakout, then a fall (giving signals of a failed breakout, followed by tightening) around the breakout levels.
The develops into a Symmetrical Triangle Pattern, followed by a sustained breakout with high volumes.
One could call is consolidation before a bigger upmove (just before a breakout) or shaking out weaker hands by signaling a failed breakout.
However if one sees examples, these symmetrical triangle breakouts then lead to tremendous up moves.
Eg1: Usha Martin: A Symmetrical Triangle pattern formed around the highs of 2007. Breakout, then failed breakout, consolidation/tightening and then the pattern breakout followed.
Eg 2: Genus Power (More recent Setup): A Symmetrical Triangle pattern formed around the highs of 2008. Breakout, then failed breakout, consolidation/tightening and then the pattern breakout followed.
Som distilleries was covered earlier and it has performed quite well once it broke out of its previous all time highs above 161. Stock price rallied hard to 276, posted a swing high and went into a short term consolidation and today seems to have broken out of a (short term ) contracting triangle . This consolidation also appears to be a pennant . A pennant is something similar to a flag which is a temporary pause in an uptrending stock. Once breakout from a flag or pennant happens, stock price is expected to resume its upmove. Need to see how it plays out in case of Som distilleries. ( Prima facie it looks quite strong as even the correction was a mild one which indicates normal correction in a strong upmvoe) disc: invested. Booked partial profits as disclosed earlier.
In continuation of the triangular consolidation after clearing previous ATH, an example of HBL power is posted in chart below. In this weekly chart, once the previous ATH of 77, stock price underwent a triangular consolidation as marked in blue dotted lines. Once it broke out of this triangle it underwent another consolidation in a triangular formation as shown in green dotted lines. This is something similar to what William O Neil refers to as base on top of a base formation.
Once stock price broke out of the base on top of base formation, it started showing signs of strong momentum and continues to remain strong.
I think these kind of consolidations are good for accumulation for those who believe in story or in power of charts. And these are often frustrating for those having lower conviction or are investing on borrowed conviction.
Sir…in context of Dlink India, you had mentioned earlier that it was techno-funda bet for you. While the technicals are easier to track, have not found any worth while information source on the fundamental side. no concalls or quarterly presentations are available, credit reports are also a year old. Even AR of 2022 does not have much details to support the turn around story!
Without that not able to build enough conviction…I had bought it 4 months back, but when it broke the support of 251 I existed at that time.
Any pointers on where I can dig more information from fundamental perspective? or how to play this story?
Continuing with the previous examples of Reversals of Bearish H&S patterns, another one that played out well is of Powermech Projects:
After a Multi Year Inverse H&S reversal pattern, a tremendous upmove followed.
This was followed by a fall from ~2400 to 1570 levels.
An interesting thing to note is that this fall was forming a bearish H&S pattern, leading participants to believe a bigger fall is going to follow.
However, this turned out to a nice shakeout of weaker hands ( red circle) and price fell below the H&S trendline confirming a pattern activation, only to reverse back above it.
This shakeout also held the Fibo 0.5 levels around 1570-1600 levels.
Regarding Dlink, not much information is available in public domain as company does not give out presentation, or concall or do investor meets. You can go through VP thread on Dlink, or preferably attend the AGM and ask relevant questions…
You need to do something that reflects your VP identity. The seeker…
The seeker…