52 week highs and all time highs strategy

SBI Insurance, price has come out of horizontal consolidation, also this can be long term bet since many are opted for insurance after COVID

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Vinati Organics, Horizontal consolidation, price did move out, but did closing was not strong.

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@hitesh2710 Ji are these right way to look into technical, i am learning


Container Corp, Wkly, Price has moved out of consolidation

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Andor Welding, Wkly chart, forming horizontal consolidating, I have not gone through fundamentals, anyone can thrown some light on the same

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@chethanvishal

The examples you have posted on chart are good examples of bullish patterns. You can edit the posts you have put up to put in your observations instead of just plain vanilla charts.

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Thanks for bringing this up.

Just adding some views on this to the conversation here for this one time as there is no thread on the company and it seems like an interesting situation.

  1. They have almost laid off a lot of their field force (several comments on YT on Novartis videos criticising the actions) - in the latest annual report no of employees is down to 81 from 500 odd earlier.
    https://www.fiercepharma.com/pharma/novartis-india-plots-400-job-cuts-wake-dr-reddy-s-sales-pact

Though this is sad news and unfortunate, it has meant that OPM has tripled this quarter and reduced employee costs have a lot to do with it

EPS just for this quarter was significantly above last 2 years combined.

  1. The products in question which are in the agreement with Dr Reddy on 1 Mg are manufactured through co-packers and were earlier marketed by Novartis India Ltd. No link to subsidiaries for the products in question. Dr Reddy’s talks about ‘repatriating’ these in their latest con-call.

  2. The person who led this restructuring - CEO Sanjay Murdeshwar did a very similar change of business structure with Astra Zeneca in 2016, after which the Astra Zeneca India margin profile looks very interesting. Astrazeneca’s margins improved from 3% in 2016 to 17% in 2021.

  1. Valuations are very reasonable vs MNC Pharma peers, but company will need to turn around the terrible performance over the last 5-7 years. This looks like an interesting development basis the same.

Discl : Recently invested, biased.

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MMFL Weekly: MMFL broke out of cup and handle pattern 2 weeks back with good volume. Break level was at around 950 levels. It now seems to be retesting break out levels. Stop loss can be just below the low of break out candle at around 860 and potential target can be around 1230 levels if pattern plays out successfully. So, its a potential 3:1 risk/reward trade. Good Q2 quarterly result might provide the required impetus.

Disclosure: Invested from around 945 levels.

NHPC is a company not well talked about. But its chart seems to be a very interesting chart. 34.50 has been a strong resistance in the past, ever since 2011… But since Oct 21, there have been attempts to cross it and twice the stock price went up to 37 kind of levels before correcting for whatever reason. It has now again crossed 34.50 and today closed above 35. There are also hints of a cup and handle which the practiced eye can detect. Would be interesting to see how it goes from here. disc: no positions.

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Ujjivan fin services posted good q1 fy 23 results, largely along expected lines because there is high correlation of its numbers with those of ujjivan sfb. (Ujjivan fin serv holds 83% of ujjivan sfb. )

Stock price is trending steadily up. Need to see market reaction if any to the results. (results file attached. )

ujjivan fin services q1 fy 23.pdf (893.2 KB)

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Gabriel came out today with very good q1 fy 23 numbers with good growth in both topline and bottomline. Stock was up 5% today at 141.

On daily GMMA chart, small cup and handle breakout indicating higher possible targets if pattern plays out. (results attached. )

gabriel q1 fy 23.pdf (919.4 KB)

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SJS came out with numbers today. Q on q Q flattish numbers except marginal improvement in margins. Y on Y obviously big jump, but here comparision is not apt as last year same quarter was affected by covid. wave.

Stock price continues to consolidate in a triangular pattern, perched above double bottom breakout. Today there was some big offloading in last few minutes of trade. Need to see market reaction to results tomorrow and management commentary and guidance for rest of the year.

sjs q1 fy 23.pdf (6.8 MB)

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Lemontree is a play on the hotel sector. In q1 fy 23, it reported a profitable quarter at net level after many quarters of losses. Its stock price today crossed its perennial resistance of 70-72 and closed above that level, in the process posting a fresh 3 year high. Note the cup and handle breakout above 60 first, with handle formation between Nov 21 and March 22 and subsequent tight consolidation between the range of 60-72 for nearly 5 months and then this breakout today. Previous all time high is around 90.

disc: trading positions since a long time, and has been a frustrating wait.

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ICICI Bank has come out of a long trading zone and made new 52W high on good volumes. Now we have to wait for it to pull back in order to make a nice entry. Benefit from Banking sector tailwinds

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Apl Apollo, Wkly chart, price has moved over 400% after break out from stage 1, and for almost last 12 months it is side ways or consolidation stage or stage 3. we can see it has made 3 touch points, price above 30 WMA, if it breaks out from the this stage then it will make continuation to stage 2 again. Also we can also say Flag pattern here I guess ( please correct me if I am wrong)

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Sharda Cropchem had a very good run up during the bearish phase of markets from Jan 22 to June 22. Its stock price more than doubled from levels of 300 in Dec 21 to a high of 769 in June 22. Since then it has formed a slightly bearish head and shoulders pattern and in response to poor q1 fy 23 results, had come down below 500, and now trying to claw its way back above its 200 dema at 544. Its price has gone below the 30 WMA which currently is placed at 618 and is yet to turn down.

The chart shown below shows a daily GMMA pattern bearish head and shoulders breakdown. Target zone in marked in dotted lines. disc: no positions, only posted for academic interest.

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Deepak Fertilizers hit the 52-week high a few days back. Fundamentally good stock and has delivered good Quarterly results as well.

Growth prospects also look good

Mold-Tek Packaging Ltd ( NSE : MOLDTKPAC)

Disc: No position as of now.

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Rico Auto - close to 52 week high

  • Rico is a manufacturer of Aluminium and Ferrous castings for Auto OEMs with clients such as Maruti, Kia, Tata, Honda, Bajaj

  • It serves the CV, PV and 2W industry, with ~77% revenues coming from India

- Fundamentals look good in my opinion as there could be scope for sales growth + margin expansion + valuation expansion if the auto cycle plays out

**Sales growth and Margin expansion guidance from latest con-call **

  • Management guiding in latest concall for 25-26% sales growth with FY 23 revenue at 2400 Cr (1860 Cr revenue in FY 22)

  • Management guiding for margin expansion to 11-12% by FY 24, and at least double digit margins in coming quarters. OPM for FY 22 was 8%

Picture1

Potential valuation upside in case guidance is met?

Market Cap to sales currently is still at range lows of 0.3x.

This is still below 10 year median (0.4x sales) and far below peak of last auto cycle (1.3x sales)

Picture2

Disclosure : I am invested and biased

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ZF steering is an auto ancillary company catering mainly to CV segment, which is the strongest sub segment within the auto space. Topline growth has been good in last couple of quarters. Margins also have seen upticks since past two quarters. This seems to be a company which can exhibit strong operating leverage.

The weekly GMMA chart shows a good breakout from a flag like consolidation which lasted nearly an year. If successful, pattern target can be close to 750. Today it gave a strong breakout with more than average volumes to close around 555. disc: token position as a techno funda bet.

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