I sent mail to management asking about Incremental orders if any?
also asked about update on Export orders
No reply till now, mail was sent 4 days back
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Ankit, management is not suppose to tell there day to day business activity.
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I have tried to collect some data for diagnostic kits export from publicly available sources. The total export value of diagnostic kits from India keeps rising since september last year, following the changes in export policy announced by DGFT time to time.
Source: https://tradestat.commerce.gov.in/meidb/comq.asp?hs=38220090&ie=e
Source: Directorate General of Foreign Trade | Ministry of Commerce and Industry | Government of India
Source: India Trupcr Export data with price, buyer, supplier, HSN code
From the export consignments, it is clear that the Covid RT-PCR kits are only getting exported to US by 3BB, for all other countries export are happening for non-covid kits only so far, as indicated by management also. However, this data is for 2020 only (mostly Q3). For the month of Jan 2021, there could be some lift in export happened, if we go by the export data from govt. Febâ 21 data is not yet available. Following update from UK partner HS BioLabs also adds to the conviction.
Discl: Invested, not a buy/sell recommendation.
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Usually they submit Business update on 1st of Every month but for April month still no communication ?
May be due to FY closing it might be taking extra time or any manipulation of data to match the numbers ?
They have already intimated in February 2021 business update about the discontinuation of monthly update
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Reading about severe delays in testing in various cities due to rush at labs and shortage of kits. Anyone with first hand experience?
Business updates of Thyrocare and Metropolis corroborate this. Thyrocare is planning to significantly increase RT PCR testing capacity.
Thyrocare:
Metropolis:
Edit:
Related -
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There were several points in their investor presentation around the time of AGM and before, e.g., NGS, exports, new easier testing kits, dividend, possible acquistion and corporate restructuring. I am hoping for some updates from the company soon.
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Updated my projection for 2021 based on the new trajectory of the virus and testing. I now expect 3BB to do 80 cr of revenue and 31 cr of PAT (56 cr and 24 cr previously).
Acute delays in testing (and everything else) continue unfortunately, however we have made some progress in increasing testing capacity. The proportion of RT PCR tests is also higher.
disc. Invested. Added recently as I feel 3bb can command a p/e of 20+ post restructuring and capital allocation decisions. Stay safe!
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Time for us to look beyond 2021?
There would again be significant higher earnings for Kilpest in Q1FY22. With significant cash surplus, can we expect some dividend, along with some news of a meaningful expansion (through acquisition, or beefing up internal R&D capabilities)?
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Management updated last quarter that dividend is the way forward if they are not able to find any meaningful acquisitionâŠthis second wave might give them enough cash to distribute some part as dividend and keep rest for expansion , acquisition
Although if they are growing well and can use cash for expansion in right direction, i would be happy to forego dividend at this point and look for revenue growth and profit growth with expansion
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Kilpest is developing Rapid Tests for COVID as per this link and may be in process to develop many more for other testing purpose.
As per the above doc test has been validated but not Approved. At least they walking the talk 
Disc: Holding since 2018
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3BBâs US partner Genophyll Enterprises has opened a diagnostic lab for Covid testing in New Jersey. Price of a TRUPCR test is $125.
https://www.genophylllabs.com/
http://newjerseyisntboring.com/wellness-wednesday-genophyll-labs-in-monmouth-junction/
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How would profitability change based on the revised price (Rs80)?
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great updatefrom 3b blackbio
1654000 kits sold at 80/ kit. and 32l worth export done in April against license.
This will reduce RT-PCR Testing.
Actually RT PCR testing infra is so much burdened due to high cases that they are not able to cope with this increased testing as it takes specific time for sample to run and get results and this is delaying the results, which in turn delaying the treatment at appropriate time. Time of treatment is the key for managing covid so they are trying to remove this delay by giving alternate diagnosis and unnecessary testing for travel and testing for joining work after many weeks and so on. The burden of testing infra is also mentioned by Thyrocare , It has opened its new center for testing at different cities.
So we can say that RT PCR is in huge demand and the infra in place or we can say time constraint in getting sample results and unnecessary testing is the main cause for this.
Also the management of Kilpest suggested that there have been a flood of new labs in starting and i think they were right in their hindsight that most of them will be closed due to unsustainability of business during slow down of COVID.
Disc: Holding
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The testing of covid hinges on two methods:
Antigen and RTPCR.
At any day RTPCR is preferable to antigen due to its higher sensitivity rate (meaning higher chance of a result being positive in a sample). The problem is with the time taken for results and shortage of kits. Due to kits shortage, intermittently docs have advised the patient to get antigen done which if comes positive, tells u that he has covid. If its negative the patient can still have covid. I think the positivity rate is 60% or so. Other reason is if any emergency surgery is needed, the pcr will take time, so atleast antigen is done which comes back in 30 min.
Pcr if kits freely available will be the test of choice at any given day if the results are not needed in a hurry.
So the above icmr guideline has no impact of testing as such.
(I have been managing covid patients for last few months and whenever available pcr has been done. )
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Some data on recent molecular diagnostics M&A deals.
- All diagnostics players are flush with cash and are out doing deals. Hologic has already done 4 deals in 2021
- M&A will be difficult given these kind of valuations, but this puts into perspective Kilpestâs relative undervaluation
edit: source links in Excel
M&A comps.xlsx (12.1 KB)
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