I am planning to have below portfolio in long term along with expected price. I will not wait for below price to come. Instead I will buy these stocks as soon as they are 25-30% down from current price.
Bharat Electronics - 100-120
Exide Industries - 100-120
Amaraja Batteries - 400
Maruti Suzuki - 5000
M&M - 450
ITC - 120
HDFC Bank and/or ICICI Bank - 1200/150
Yes Bank - 250
HDFC - 1200
Jindal Steel and Power - Already below book value
Asian Paints - 500
Cera Sanityware
Kajaria ceramics - 250
Eicher motors - 12000
Escorts - 400
Apart from these, I am thinking of small cap like Deep Industries, Nitin spinners, Kitex garment. Currently I have allocated 25% of my planned invetsment. I am waiting for some stock correction(25-30%) so that I can allocate 25-30% more to my portfolio. My horizon is long term(5-10 years or more) depending on how business perform
I will not for exact price to come. e.g. I already started buying Bharat electronics @167(average price) , ITC(250) etc. My plan is to buy more of these shares on dip. But is there any suggestion on portfolio?
Amazing peice of work.40 charts in which nothing can be missed out.which site you have subscribed for data.is it possible for you to share the Excel sheet.
@yogesh@hitesh while going thru old conversation of 2012 and 2013, I find some of he learned members had identified potential multi baggers and members must HV definitely benefited from those deliberations.The year 2018 is going to b a tough year to identify those kind of stocks by most of us except a few of u, who have been bestowed upon an excellent skill.
May I suggest that we start a discussion afresh inviting views on future potential stocks along with the justification and analysis of Q4results.I m of the opinion that it would be highly rewarding for the members, would raise the level/quality of discussion on the forum.
Guys, purpose of my previous post was to present an approach that use charts instead of tables to quickly analyze a large set of numbers. You are welcome to comment on this approach and suggest improvements. Underlying data can be sourced from screener.in or from annual reports of companies. This is all public data anyway. I use a corporate database because it saves me some time but you will appreciate that licencing agreement will prevent me from freely sharing this data.
There are companies that provide data for a fee e.g. CMIE Prowess, Capitaline and ACE Equity etc.
@atul1082 I am attaching a presentation made at the Mumbai Investor’s group in Feb 2018 with few stock ideas. This may be useful. Investment Ideas Feb 2018.ppt (46.5 KB)
Disclosure: Not a buy or a sell recommendation. Strictly for discussion purpose only.
Yes, I agree with you. Charts are the best way. Visualizing data is much easier than reading data. Great work. Having worked in Analytics for so many years I have experienced how the story changes as soon as we start visualizing data
while checking your stock ideas from Feb 18’ ppt attached above, I came across Nov. 17 news article about the promoters of the the company mentioned by you - Associated Alcohol
Would like to hear your thoughts about this?
BTW Dolly Khanna invested in this stock in Jan-Mar quarter and it is on upmove in last 2 weeks
Yes, I read about the Income tax raid. However there are no charges filed, no arrests made and certainly no conviction in a court of law. In stock markets we treat anyone accused as guilty until proven innocent and it is understandable because it’s our own hard earned money at risk. But an IT raid on a company in an industry that does does a lot of business in cash due to high incidence of taxes isn’t a lot to worry about.
In case of corporate governance issues, I am more worried about cases where interest of minority investors are not protected and promoters takes minority investors for a ride using its majority holding. That does not appear to be a case going just by the article. Under-reporting of sales and income is very common in industries that are doing a lot of business in cash. It hurts government in unpaid taxes and lower reported profits for investors while promoters siphon money through other means. Over the last few years I think lot of business is being reported on paper looking at the numbers. This is purely my hypothesis based on observations and nothing else.
I also look at other corporate government indicators like debt reduction, tax payments , promoter salaries, asset write-offs, (lack of) clean surplus accounting etc and I didn’t see any red flags. company’s numbers reported over last several years are also internally consistent. Usually any company that is ‘managing’ numbers will have some red flags somewhere and so far I haven’t seen any. There is always a chance that something will be overlooked though.
Finally, this is what the company says about ethics.
Source: Annual Report 2016-17
Ofcourse no company will ever admit any wrongdoing in an annual report so this glossy page is not worth much but the fact they chose to say it out loud could mean they want to stand out on this aspect? Take it for what it’s worth.
Thanks for sharing your learnings @Yogesh_s.
A query on charts you shared- seems you download data from a source (Capitaline) and feed them in your excel to generate these graphs, or graphs are also generated by source like Capitaline? I am curious to know this to understand affordability of such software/source for individual investor like many of us. Cheers!
Datasources I use do not generate charts but they give you an overview screen for each company including major data points. This screen can be exported to (or copied and pasted into) Excel to draw charts.
Sold RM Drip after results as receivables have gone up a lot and no operating leverage is seen. Otherwise, 50% revenue growth is good but not all revenue is flowing to the bottom line. Also price jumped after results so took advantage of that.
Purchased Beta Drugs at 100 only to see price quickly jump to 200 and fall back. This is into manufacturing of oncology products which is a niche and highly specialized area in pharma manufacturing. Company has another group company that does the marketing so still trying to figure out if this arrangement is risky considering that margins in pharma is mainly from marketing activity. FY 18 results are good.
Purchased Valiant Organics. This Aarti group company is into manufacturing of chloro-phenol. Company has excellent fundamentals but is merging two large group companies with itself so there are large structural changes happening in its fundamentals. Group companies that it is merging with itself have similar fundamentals but still waiting for clear picture to emerge before committing more as valuation is high.
Added RKEC after H1 results. This issue is also very volatile. Waiting for results to get an idea about order book and inflows in H2.
No changes in Worth Peripherals and Shanti Overseas. Waiting for results.
Overall my allocation to SME is small as I am still testing waters. SME index jumped 50% from Sept to Dec 2017 only to give back most of the gains earlier this year. This volatility is largely due to low float, large lot size, small market cap and half-yearly result publishing. Lot of price action is concentrated around result dates. This volatility adds to the risk without any additional return. It also means that market price is likely to be significantly higher or lower than fair value so one needs to be careful with timing and valuation.
I applied for the IPO but did not get any allotment. Since listing, it is trading at a steep premium to offer price so there is no margin of safety at current price hence did not buy any from the secondary market.
No idea about CMI Infraprojects. Can you please point me to their prospectus?
Dynamic cables is a manufacturer of electrical cables and their customers are cash strapped state electricity boards who are having troubles paying their dues to the company. Company has large receivables and receivables past 6 months due is almost 50% their net-worth (pre-ipo). Company even filed lawsuits against their customers for recovery of dues so there is uncertainty about ability of the company to recover these dues. They should have made some provision against unrecoverable receivables but I could not find any. They also have a high customer concentration and low margins, which means even if one customer defaults, entire year’s worth of profits will written off.
Normally I don’t invest in companies with huge receivables and when company is raising IPO money with the sole objective of enhancing working capital or general corporate purposes. there is good chance that such companies treat shareholder money as free money.
