ValuePickr Forum

VP Presentation at FLAME: June 27-28, 2015: Ayush & Donald

Ayush & me recently presented at FLAME, June 27-28, 2015 (invited by Prof Sanjay Bakshi).

We were asked to present on the VP Journey, why people collaborate the way they do at VP, and Learnings at VP over last 5 years.

Judging by the reaction of the audience, the presentation was well-received. We have also received many requests for uploading/distributing the presentation to a wider audience.

Team-ValuePickr-2010-2015 FLAME.compressed.pdf (2.4 MB)

This is a bulky presentation - to do justice to covering every aspect of our tremendous learning curve at VP of last 5 years was a daunting task :).

Over to our valued readership and fellow-travellers over last 5 years - has this been able to capture some of the VP Magic? Will be interesting to hear views of both old-timers and new learners.

Cheers

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WoW!!!

All what you can read across so many VP forums,days(may be months) captured in a single presentation.I guess this shud be “THE Document” OR “Investment CheckList” to refer for VP knowledge base.

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Donald , Thanks a lot for sharing the presentation. You have wonderfully captured the journey so far. Do you have a video recording of the presentation? Just curious :smile:

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Fantastic stuff Donald & Ayush. Many thanks for sharing.

One thing I noticed was Avanti mgmt never found a place in any of the examples in the Mgmt quality insights. Was just curious.

Regards,
Niranjan

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Hi Donald,

Thanks for this wonderful presentation with valuable information. This really helps new learners like me to understand the collaborative way of working at VP and its benefits.

Regards
Arun

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Frankly speaking I dont think this reflects a decent % of what I learned at VP. If it could, people would drop their books/articles by Graham, Munger, Lynch, etc. and read 36 slides. To me VP is invaluable as I get to learn by reading in detail as people who are years (and not decades like the other authors) ahead of me in their journey lay open their minds for me to see them work on relevant cases even as I am being quoted the same price as them by Mr. M. Its another issue that I am a slower learner than them.

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Hi Donald & Ayush,

It’s an aha! moment after going through the presentation. The presentation truly reflects the journey of VP in flow and spirit! You guys have articulated the critical junctures of this journey with key concepts where truly quantum leap in learning has happened for the folks. Also, I really liked the idea of taking the snapshots of various company threads and then highlighting the “insights” that we gained and how the various pieces of jigsaw puzzles ( business quality, scuttlebutt inputs, management DNA, understanding of the business and competitive dynamics) fall in place so beautifully! It so happens that while we go through the entire 100 or more comments in a thread while getting a “feel” of the quality of business, we lose track of how the points made/insights gained in various comments gel in to give a completer picture…I am sure, FLAME participants would have got a “real” glimpse into the dynamics of how and why of success at VP!

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VP has been a boon to novice investors like me.
When I see the presentations made at VP by the seniors, I feel there is a loongg way to go for me.
VP has helped us become better investors, a lot of lives have improved by gaining better judgement / investment skills.
No amount of praise is enough.
thanks again to Donald, VP seniors and all the VPickers.

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Hi @desaidhwanil,

Yes, it was really nice going through the discussion thread again and re-living those discussions. There is so much gold in these threads! I was just feeling that we often get lost in too much of information…going through the good posts and comments gave so much of insight :smile:

Ayush

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thanks Donald and Ayush for sharing

“Move from offering free Advise to offering an Investment Vehicle”

Hello Donald… When & how do you plan in this front?

I believe it captures the journey as much as it is possible in a ppt.

But what we need to takeaway from this presentation are the following IMHO:

  1. Sheer amount of hardwork put in, which not only helped to gain insights but also helped in the evolution of the forum and its members. It has pretty much changed the way i looked at things. Most importantly it humbled me.
  2. There are no shortcuts, and any new investor needs to make the time to review the showcase threads to imbibe the true ValuePickr spirit.
  3. Even though BQ Template is available, one cannot give full justice to it if you do not know what goes into EPA (Business Value Drivers) or classify into the relevant BQ Category.

It reiterates Donald’s advise to take any company and get to know the story better than about what u know abt yourself.
In the process you will figure out which thread to refer for filling the BQ Sheet.

Any new VP’er should go through each line of the PPT for guidance and need not look any further.

I commend @FocObs for taking the time to go through the threads and create a checklist based on questions posed.
Hopefully he is getting the feel for the ART side of it.

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@crazymama

Thanks for tagging me brother . I have somehow missed this thread.
Now, i am gonna grind this thread and make notes of discussion.

Just an update from my end. I have sold each & every stock in my portfolio today. Each & everything
I don’t know, why & what wrong with my method?
But, i knew…i cant walk this technique in long run.

I am not able to see things, which you guys are able to.
I have learnt fundamentals from 12-13 books, which I have read religiously.
But, I am not able to find the FINE THREAD which puts them everything together

Nevertheless, I have joined VP to learn & get some knowledge I shall accomplish that at all costs.

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Okay, time for some stock-taking, and generic responses to reactions :smile:

First things first - One Forbes mention - doesn’t make us Wizards. If we can sustain a decent track record over 10 years (till 2020) that will be worth something. Without seeing through a full crash VP and our individual tracks aren’t worth much. So everyone please lets STOP using superlatives (especially crazymama :blush: ) . This is a thrilling journey … there is much more to navigate through … much more refinements to come in …we are sure of that …so why stunt our progress by premature titles? If we continue this journey together for next 5 …VP will be one hell of a community …that’s for sure …lets focus on the Learning …which as we know …is unending!

Second - VP is not a substitute for the Gurus or the Guru books. That’s the foundation without which one cant make real progress. However once you have laid a decent foundation, then VP is modelled to be the ideal hunting ground - for all wannabe Do-It-Yourself (DIY) Investors. If you want to learn the tricks of the trade, you shouldn’t have to look elsewhere - that’s the Mantra. The emphasis is ALWAYS on PRACTICALS - applying the Guruspeak, applying what you think you know :). Sticking our necks out in uncharted territory - not afraid to take a stand - challenge, stumble, progress and refine. Raise the bar higher …and …

What some folks (the newer members) may still be missing is that much of the captured learning …one will usually NOT find in Guru Books …at least not in as DISTILLED a form as our most important (unique to VP) Tenets… Business Value Drivers, Success Patterns, Capital Allocation, Business Quality, Management Quality, and ART of Valuation threads…and there’s more to come surely, as we unravel more of the investing puzzle … in our shared journey !!

I always keep asking fellow-travellers - if you find anything anywhere - books/guruspeak/blogs/reports that focus on any of the above (or similar) practicals, do ALERT us …for we are fanatics after distilled practical learning !!

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@chintans
Yes - that’s the way to look at VP - the concurrent learning with so many talented fellow-investors and senior practitioners on individual stocks/businesses is invaluable.

At the same time, in the initial years one must FOCUS MORE on captured learnings (use perfect hindsight and check back how these were derived in real-time from a study of the showcased discussions and the abstracted distilled investment tenets. That will help anyone to speed up the learning curve dramatically and get to an Individualised Investment Philosophy much faster. (Till we develop that for ourselves - we don’t have original comments of our own, we cant talk at the same level - debate or really appreciate the finer nuances of the Investing ART… there may be GOLD spewing forth from a senior practitioner, but we may remain unable to catch it)

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@desaidhwanil
I knew it :). That those of us who have travelled together most of 2010-2015, will really appreciate the PPT …cos’ as Ayush says its like going back in time…and wondering wow! remember! this is how we had come across this realisations, learnt to factor this new thing in, learnt to separate what is ignorable and what is not…learnt to separate Special Managements from the Ordinary…and Business with sustainable Quality from the Average We also remember the DOUBTS that we had, and the FAITH that we kept …keeping consistency of business performance above most other events/triggers/newsflows. And more importantly the distilled learnings that we captured back at each stage (every 6 months or so) …has helped VP become the Community it is today.

Nostalgia is a big big thing …newcomers can’t catch that … am already feeling old :smile:
Much of that credit goes to consistent dedicated, driven VP folks like you. I am just a good chronicler… ha ha

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@crazymama @FocObs

Ha ha… it becomes confusing…all too much to digest …every passionate eager beaver goes through that…and I have endured that phase too…couldn’t just tie everything together. Whatever I came up with …some or other senior would blow some or other hole through it. And then came Oct 2008 …and Subhankar Ghose (another Mentor and well-wisher I cannot acknowledge enough) from Kolkata who handed me over the PAT Dorsey Book - 5 rules for Successful Stock Investing. I got completely hooked because I hadn’t seen a more practical step-by-step do it yourself analyst handbook. Before long I realised all I had to do is take one stock …and dive deep into that business …learn all you can about it …and capture it back in the Template he provided. [ To my mind, it is the most UNDER-RATED investment book of all time ]

I took 3 months on my favourite idea of that time Opto Circuits (the fortunes have since changed) and did a PHD on that business. And published a 22 page report …and the rest is history. All the wonderful seniors that you see at VP …Dnyanesh,Hitesh, Ayush, Abhishek …all got attracted. Suddenly I saw hey… I am able to hold my own in discussions with them on merits/demerits … they couldn’t blow a hole any more…whatever question they threw at me… I had a rough idea if not the complete answer…and also got to the elusive answer faster than them …'cos I had a tremendous head start.

So if any passionate learner ever feels confused and all at sea… do not despair… there is a surefire way that works…take one business and do a PHD… be the one guy at VP that knows more about this business than anyone else…you will never stop thanking me …your personal growth will astound even yourself … you will suddenly see smarter folks seeking you out …in the process making you a smarter investor by the day. Try it. It really works !!

A secret: you want to know why it works?
It works when you take the RESPONSIBILITY on yourself - of making everyone better-informed about your favourite business !!

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@sarathyvenkat

Ha ha… That is our way again of putting ourselves on the spot - dreaming an audacious dream - and make it happen! The target year is 2020. By then we should have grown 10x in investing acumen and experience. VP Forum should have grown 10x. Top Contributors from 20 should have grown 10x

We dream that that is a feasible stretched goal…and a worthy growth mission for the Community. Time will have its own story to tell :slight_smile: But as you know we are never shy of sticking our neck out !!

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@Donald

Roger the first point, Donald.

I have a friend, certain Mr. N, who has been tracking stock markets since 2004.
Then whenever we discuss stocks, I went all ga-ga over how VP does things and how public/personal portfolio have shown results etc. etc.

I said Ajanta Pharma, he said Sun Pharma has given 4x returns from 2011 time (when VP started picking stocks).
I said Eicher Motors, he said Maruti Suzuki is 4-bagger.
You get the idea now!!

He even showed me mutual funds which has been returning CAGR 21%+ returns for last 5 years.

If you picked stocks in 2011-12, very likely that they are multi-baggers due to cyclical upturn post 2008 upturn.
So Mr. N said, you tell me stocks now and let’s discuss in 2020.

So this 10 year point is - right on money.

I roughly know the answer to his question, but I’d rather show him in 2020 than argue now. :smile:

Thanks,
Rupesh

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I dont mean it is a criticism, but anyone who is comparing the no. of multibaggers is missing the point.

The key is the process which donald and others in this team have built. I have personally followed markets and a lot of blogs and forums over 10+ years and there is no one (atleast publicly) who has built such a good process in such a short time.

If you get the process right, the results will follow. Ofcourse temprament and hard work is needed - but then you can only take the horse to the water , not force it to drink :smile:

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