First things first Thank you @vivek_mashrani ji for sharing the AMBIT report with the community.
I am attaching an excel file which contains a few notes I have made from different sources freely available online. I hope these notes will be helpful to anyone researching the company.
Going through the excel, you will find the first sheet contains the past two years export data on ATBS & Na-ATBS. I have calculated the average realizations of two years and average yearly realizations also. Volume and total value data is also available. However, the total value figure will not match the segmented sales data for ATBS provided in annual reports as the export data is missing a few months of data which is not available online currently.
The second, third, and fourth sheet contains the past 2 year import data on Butylated Phenols, a market that Vinati Organics is targeting in the coming years. The data is in the same format as the first export data sheet and I have calculated the average yearly realizations and total volumes imported. The import data contains all four types of Butylated Phenols targeted by Vinati Organics namely, Para Tertiary BP (PTBP), Ortho Tertiary BP (OTBP), 2,4 Di Tertiary BP (2.4 DTBP), 2,6 Di Tertiary BP (2,6 DTBP). The domestic market for Butylated Phenols seems to be around 15000 TPA and valued at 150 cr annually.
Vinati Organics is setting up a 39000 TPA capacity of BPs by FY19, currently India imports 20500 TPA of BPs which is a 300 cr market as per Ambit. The import data is from Zauba, the mismatch between Ambit and my estimates maybe due to some chemicals imports missing in the data and also due to some by products of the BP manufacturing process that I have not considered yet.
The fifth sheet contains the past two year import data on Para Amino Phenol (PAP). Again the format and calculations are similar to previous sheets. The import data shows that the domestic PAP market is around 22000+ TPA and valued at 300+ cr. This seems to be in line with the figures that Ambit has provided in their report. However, this is only half the story for PAP as the other half of the market is in exports for which Ambit has provided some estimates. I am unable to confirm the global market size for PAP from my current research but I will keep looking and will share when I find something. If anyone else has experience in assessing this global data from direct sources not reports your help will be appreciated.
Caveat: All the market figures given above are based on import prices and Zauba does not mention whether these import prices are inclusive or exclusive of customs import duties which in case of these chemicals is 25.85%. A big portion of this custom duty is the 12% CVD which is Countervailing Duties. CVDs are charged on imports at the discretion of the destination country based on self assessments of the subsidies provided by the source country. CVDs are fair in the eyes of WTO provided some particular guidelines are followed by the destination country. I will be researching this further to check the legitimacy (according to WTO norms) of India’s CVDs on these chemicals and will post my findings soon. Both PAP and BPs are protected by CVDs.
On the sixth sheet are some calculations to check the economics of PAP. The assumptions are the usual logical figures. I take 20% cheaper unit realizations for Vinati’s PAP compared to current import prices. I have also done some calculations for the global market value excluding India. The assumption is Vinati Organics will gain 40% market share globally. The global market value figures are based on the assumptions of the Ambit report and have not been corroborated by me yet.
The seventh sheet contains my notes taken from the Ambit report shared by Vivek ji.
The last sheet contains my notes from a 2014 Environment Clearance report by Vinati Organics to MOEF. I found this interesting as the report details all their expansion plans which were completed in 2015. The report contains detailed ROIs for each individual project and their target markets. This document is very informative and should be read. I will be attaching the report at the end.
Based on the above line of thought I continued to search for more up to date Environmental Clearance permissions for its newer projects but I have not found anything yet. I will continue to search for similar permission reports as they are bound to come up sooner than later.
I have however, found the pre-feasibility report for their PAP and BP projects online but I am yet to read them. I am sharing them here for your benefit. When I make proper notes from them I will share them too.
IChemicals Import Export Data.xlsx (294.3 KB)
Approval for Expansion.pdf (1.1 MB)
22_Apr_2016_1300126804PGR1HW6VOLBriefSummary.pdf (466.7 KB)
22_Apr_2016_155939733UHIOJRKWVOLPFRfinal.pdf (1.5 MB)
26_Aug_2016_1314412405UHJ3O6KVOLLotePFR.pdf (1.5 MB)