Sugar Cycles: 7-8 years of losses followed by 2-3 years of super gains!

Promoter stake may be lower due to QIP.
2)debt equity ratio is significantly down to meagre 0.86 from 2.6 last Q…thats huge .
3) there ppt cleary says big deficit in 2017 and robust prices.
4)
Trailing eps shotting above 70…huge man…

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Dwarikesh Sugar’s huge positive is that the long term borrowings that have come down to 136 cr from 237 cr in Mar 16.

Besides, the average sugar realization was only Rs 26.3/kg in Q3 FY15, which has improved to Rs. 35.5 in Q2, FY16. Even at current realizations the profit is going up and finance costs down. SAP revision is to be watched out for.

@ Mani…last in in Q2…there was one time cane subsidy of Rs 46 Cr…due to which PAT and in turn EPS soared to 23+. Removing that there was a net loss of & Cr from operations. On the other side this year we have 37 Cr of profit…and tht’s really sweet :slight_smile:

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One should read investor presentation od Dwarikesh Sugar to understand the improvements properly.

http://www.bseindia.com/corporates/anndet_new.aspx?newsid=99bfa726-10a9-4784-a223-4da9c2ee876f

After loses in onions, Maharashtra farmers switching to sugarcane

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Election commission will UP election dates on Nov. After that, not sure whether present govt. can announce SAP price in UP.

From what i see in Dwarkesh even after solid results, my view is after Diwali, we will see the rally probably mid of November afterwards( looking at past trend) and this rally might continue till December end or may be mid Jan’17. From Jan’17 onwards keeping UP election in mind central govt would try to bring prices in control ( 'coz by that time this rally in stock along with rise in sugar price would have done enough damage to current UP Govt).

The reason i say this 'coz i would have done the same to bring my opponent down had i been in govt :smiley:.

Disc : Invested at 374

The key thing will be ability to pay farmers. In case of unreasonable SAP, farmers will not be paid. Already there is an article on this in TOI Mumbai on what Farmers in MH is demanding and how Industry reacted

Farmers asked for 310/320 , that industry refused to give in

http://m.moneycontrol.com/news/results-boardroom/sugar-prices-may-remain-firmcoming-days-dwarikesh-sugar_7815221.html

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fatima ji pl. update on dhampur charts …any move coming??..whats happening there.?

Thanks
Regards

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Thanks for update…
Pl. Keep updating on important changes whenver u see one…
Regards

I believe sugar stocks have gone no where in last few months, while other mid and small cap stocks have given good returns in the same period. Lost opportunity for investors in sugar stocks.

All the positive is priced in the sugar stocks, as most of sugar stocks have rallied from 5x to 10x or 20x from their lows.

Amit

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amitanam no offense meant but, by your comment it seems you are have/had trading mentality for sugar stocks hence counting gains for a short duration say for 2-3 months. But, if something is not going up it doesn’t meant it won’t go up.

Even after doing 5-10-20 X sugar stocks are available at 4-5 PE FY E 17 basis. They are performing so well and improvement on ROE and balance sheet is clearly visible. Moreover, price is only going up and in worst case it will remain firm. Considering all the above, it is only matter of time that they start their upward journey again. They did 5-10X in 7-8 months and can repeat the same if things keep improving the way it is ongoing. Lets wait and watch before declaring that another sugar rally for 2015-2016 is over.

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Sugar deficit
http://m.bangkokpost.com/business/news/1119337/sugar-output-down-as-global-prices-rise

http://m.economictimes.com/news/economy/agriculture/maharashtra-karnataka-cane-farmers-to-demand-rs-3200/tonne-as-first-installment/articleshow/55054870.cms

“sugar mills have sold most of their sugar. Imports are not feasible. Sugar prices are going to increase and this is the right time to fight,”
“Sugar prices are going to remain bullish. Cane is less, many mills are going to remain closed. Your cane is going to get rate like gold. Get ready to fight,”

Its now absolutely clear that we are going to have a wide deficit in sugar the world over.
The govt cannot handle it smoothly,like the above incident farmers will demand more, the mills will refuse to crush, there will be delays and more loss of crushable sugarcane . The chaos will only lead to sugar price firming up, may reach the old 30 cents + highs and ultimately result in imports.
The farmer agitation may appear as sick news in a ugly industry. But they will arrive at a price, probably 300-310.
Very very interesting times ahead.

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fatimaji.
it tested your CHART levels today only…118.

Only UP Sugar Mills with Integrated Stuff like Power and Distillery and low debt will show consistent profits.

@DEEPAKSINGH ji…yes it has tested the support today…if there is a turnaround in the next few days, will you be willing to buy more…that the most important question…weak hands have almost been driven out…time is now ripe for the rally to begin…

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dwarikesh failed to provide the trigger…trigger can be tomorrows dalmia result…!
also balram was looking good but suddenly lost steam unable to stay above resis of 120plus.