Sugar Cycles: 7-8 years of losses followed by 2-3 years of super gains!

I just saw article in BS that UP is going to fix SAP at 310 with 10% hike.This price was expected

Even a SAP of 320 would be Ok…above that is a negative…SAP below 320 is a hugely Bullish news…

Yes SAP to be in 300-310 range…above that margi will affected hugely at cmp ex mill…market already dicsounting this range and once declared all negative will be out of way.
Regards

UP Govt mulls 10% increase in sugar cane price. That means It will be around Rs 310/- Good news.

http://epaper.business-standard.com/bsepaper/svww_zoomart.php?Artname=20161031a_003101002&ileft=3&itop=589&zoomRatio=131&AN=20161031a_003101002

Upper Ganges is out with it’s results for Q2-2016.

http://corporates.bseindia.com/xml-data/corpfiling/AttachLive/B4762CE3_47D6_44AD_87E8_5143298265FB_152452.pdf

EPS of 14.97 for Q2 and for six months ended 33.81. Looks like a solid result to me. Interesting fact was 1738.96 lac of Employee benefit expense ? Wonder what is it?

Is that a head and shoulders pattern forming in balrampur? If so, is it time to head for the exit.

Spectacular results by Ponni Erode Sugars. EPS 11.23 inQ2 Fy 17 against 0.15 Q2 Fy16.
http://www.bseindia.com/corporates/anndet_new.aspx?newsid=a9b97d6e-f072-4218-8ce9-5f8a2f736d65

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While the sell-off in sugar futures earlier in the week was largely sentiment and technical, this week supported further supply tightness as new data was released. Sugar processing data was released from Brazil’s top sugar producing region, the center-south Region, which showed that in October 2.2 million tons of sugar were produced, below the 2.3 million tons expected. According to industry group Unica, center-south mills crushed 32 million metric tons of cane, a decrease of 11.9% from the same period a year earlier.

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Good evening fatima ji…
Whats happening in our sugar stocks …we are still high n dry …
Diwali n festive month gone …
Also all sugar cos postung stellar results??but still no action…
again i am doubting is distribution happening??

Thanks.

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No Deepakji…its definitely not distribution…first Km sugar broke away…then rana sugar started going up…and now Dalmia sugar and dwarikesh are showing a similar technical set up…in dhampur, there is a turnaround on monthly momentum indicators…it may take 1-2 weeks for dhampur too rally again…

I am watching the price action very keenly…waiting for appropriate signal to add more…

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Thanks and keep updating regularly fatimaji…but for now hope for hillary win so uptrend resumes…
Result of dhampur coinciding US election result.:wink:
All the best to all

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EID Parry Q2 Cons Net Profit At Rs 126.2 Cr Vs Loss Of Rs4 Cr (YoY).
Time for party tommorow?
Stellar no coming one after another

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Fatima ji wwhy eidparrys mcap is whopping 4500crores???.

Eid parrys holds a huge 66% stake in Coromandal fertilizers…its because of that SOTP thing…just lke Triveni

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MAHARASHTRA SUGAR SEASON STARTS SLOW EVEN AS PAYMENT ROW HANGS FIRE

November 8, 2016 · in Sugar Factory News, sugar mill news, Sugarcane News

Financial Express 8 November 2016: The Maharashtra sugar season of 2016-17 has gotten off to a slow start amid controversy over the payment of the first cane installment to farmers. With farmer organisations threatening an agitation and demanding R3,200 per tonne as the first installment, factories in the state’s sugarcane-rich Kolhapur and Sangli belt of western Maharashtra have agreed to pay R175 per tonne over and above the Fair and Remunerative Price (FRP) fixed by the Centre.

Factories in the rest of Maharashtra, however, say it is not possible for them to make such a high payment. Around 39 mills in Kolhapur, Sangli, Satara, Pune and Solapur regions have commenced crushing in the state after the season was preponed following the threat of an agitation by farmer organisations in Maharashtra.

The Centre has fixed FRP at R2,300 per tonne at a recovery rate of 9.5% for millers. In Maharashtra the recovery comes up to 11.3% and the FRP accordingly comes up to R2,100-2,200 per tonne. FRP is the minimum price that sugarcane farmers are legally guaranteed. However, state governments are free to fix their own state-advised price (SAP) and millers can offer any price above the FRP. The FRP is fixed after taking into consideration the margins for sugarcane farmers, based on the cost of production of sugarcane, including the cost of transportation. It is linked to a basic sugar recovery rate of 9.5%, subject to a premium of R1.46 for every 0.1 percentage point increase in recovery above 9.5%. The recovery rate is the quantity of sugar produced from the crushed cane.

At a meeting held in Sangli on Sunday evening with farmer organisation Swabhimani Shetkari Sanghatana (SSS), millers in this region agreed to pay up R175 per tonne above the FRP to farmers. The meeting was attended by Sadabhau Khot, minister of state for marketing. Crushing in Sangli commenced on Monday. Four days ago, millers in Kolhapur had agreed to a similar amount.

Shivajirao Nagawade, chairman, Maharashtra State Cooperative Sugar Factories Federation (MSCSFF), has made it clear that it may not be possible for factories in the state barring western Maharashtra to make payments of R175 per tonne to farmers over and above FRP as the first installment. Since factories in Kolhapur and Sangli regions have higher recovery rates, it will be possible for them to make payments to farmers.

“The industry is going through tough times. Despite the festive season, there is no demand for sugar in the market and there are no bids to tenders floated by factories for sugar sale. Moreover, the installments for the loans taken in the last season. A delegation led by NCP leader Sharad Pawar has already met Union finance minister Arun Jaitley to seek the restructuring of loans. However, there has been no response from the Centre,” he said.

According to Nagawade, the last couple of seasons have been bad for the millers. Around 69 factories have ended up with losses of R900 crore for the 2014-15 season and the total accumulated losses by the mills in the state are around R2,900 crore, he had said earlier. The federation had earlier approached the Centre seeking relief against the directive and had also written to Maharashtra chief minister Devendra Fadnavis seeking a solution.

Around 150-155 factories in Maharashtra are expected to participate in the season’s crushing. The estimated availability of sugarcane this year stands at 445 lakh tonnes, implying that the state will produce just 50 lakh tonnes of sugar as against 85 lakh tonnes last season. With just 90 days of crushing, a large number of mills will remain shut resulting in idle machinery, extra manpower cost, and a likely default on term-loan repayment leading to non-performing assets.

A meeting of the Cane Control Board is expected to be held next week in Mumbai and according to Nagawade, some solution may emerge at this meet. "

— So According to above report MAHARASHTRA
Only 90 days crushing with output of 50LT .

had recently read about Low production in Thailand too and the Huge problem in Egypt for shortage of Sugar…
but With good Q2 results from many sugar Companies yet there is no Sugar rally…
Infact stocks are correcting which is making Us Uncomfortable in this short term but hope so as the sugar deficits become reality we may see some good run up after this months long time and price consolidation…

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http://corporates.bseindia.com/xml-data/corpfiling/AttachLive/8000D5EE_494A_4C8E_8B9D_1AE782021B8F_170728.pdf
Dhampur results. Saw it in my cell quickly and hence not commenting on finer elements

HERE IT COMES…THE FIRST DOWN WARD REVISION IN SUGAR PRODUCTION FIGURES…EVEN BEFORE THE START OF CRUSHING SEASON…

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/agriculture/government-pegs-2016-17-sugar-output-at-22-52-mt-down-10-27-per-cent/articleshow/55355175.cms

Just as the weak hands have been driven off the sugar stocks and very good accumulation has taken place…and now the sugar stocks are poised for the uptrend to begin…we may have to wait just for a weak or two…

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And the best thing is that the Food minister says that the sugar stocks are STILL ADEQUATE to meet Indias consumption needs…so no imports for now…maybe no imports till end of crushing season and UP elections…Ache din aanewale hain!!!

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