Sugar Cycles: 7-8 years of losses followed by 2-3 years of super gains!

hi Mehnazfatima,

KCP Sugar was staying strong along with Dhampur but looks like it has fallen back; notable though that it still stayed along with 100 DMA (Balrampur had touched 200 DMA). How does it look on the charts now?

Regards,
Roberto el S

Maharastra Mills failed to comply with Sep 30 deadline of Stk Limit. They have taken Union Food Ministry to High Court on impossible deadline. They say due to Govt pressure prices have gone south to Rs 32 to Rs 32.5 per Kg inflicting losses to them . reliable sources say Govt may not press to adhere to Stk limit in the Court.

http://epaper.business-standard.com/bsepaper/svww_zoomart.php?Artname=20161011aK014101001&ileft=-1&itop=44&zoomRatio=130&AN=20161011aK014101001

http://m.economictimes.com/markets/commodities/news/state-isma-not-on-same-page-about-sugar-estimate/articleshow/54775782.cms

Maharastra govt expecting sugar production no more than 5mt whereas ISMA in 1st forecast pegged Maharstra priduction at 6.5mt…
Intersting to see going ahead.

Hi

First of all Happy Dusshera to all!!

An auspicious day to start with any good work
It was today that good won victory over bad
May this day clear all hurdles of your life and start new era of well-being
Happy Dussehra!

I just bought sugar at 45/kg in Delhi. So sugar is rising and not rising at the same time if compared with it’s supply and inventory.

And i dont see any effect on my portfolio of Upper and Dwarikesh. What i am trying to say is i guess this time its going to be really difficult to predict when would the rally start and how soon it would fizz off.

My daily routine has turned in checking any news for my portfolio and relate it with its price. So far i am not able to find anything. Hoping i would find some soon.

Just came to wish everyone happy dusshera :smiley:

Some clarity on the ethanol pricing.

How will this effect Sugar Stocks…
Especially those companies who are more into Ethanol ???

Just saw one BS article on this. There will be no impact

@Mehnazfatima hi, do you think the sotry is intact in KCP Sugars? Dhampur seems to be stable but you reckon KCP could be replaced by another stock from technical perspective in the sugar pack?

Thanks

A lot of sugar stocks inckuding Balrampur, Uttam, Upper ganges, oudh, rana sugar…are getting into a state of volatility compression. We can expect a price breakout in the next few days…KM sugar and Dhampur are already in uptrend… its like a spring which is getting more and nore compressed.

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So IMPORTS ARE ON CARDS NOW…
Govt proavtive to import as they know sugar production will be lower tha isma estimates may be around 21.5 mt and that huge deficit compared to consumption of 26.5mt…this shortage of 5million tonne will wiped of all carryover stocks…

If this really comes true … would what be the effect on Sugar stocks ???
Is this Bad news for the stocks … and that’s the reason why Sugar Stocks are not performing and no Pre result rally …

Though I am not able to understand how will this materialize… at current international rates of US 23$ and than adding import cost and transportation and processing… actual cost would be way ahead of Rs 50/- in retail, so don’t see this move will bring down the sugar prices … very confusing

Should we book out Loss / Profit from this sector as a whole … too much government intervention !!

GUYS…dont get too excited…they are just talking of REDUCING import duty…as it is with import duty of 40% the landed cost of sugar works out to around 54-55 rupees per kg…as long as international price is high, there is no threat to domestic sugar prices from imports…this is called trying to talk down the prices…thats all…just one week to Diwali and its all just talk.

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Interesting news . Shows how deficit cannot be managed in a painless manner.

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I think, as soon as Govt announces lowering of import duty, International Raw Sugar Price will increase. It is already 23 cent per Lb +

Raw sugar price is high, not because of India situation but because of Brazil shortage. All are co-related

Unintended consequences of govt intervention. Retail may be benefitted, but corporates ( and their lenders) may suffer.

http://m.economictimes.com/news/economy/agriculture/sugar-mills-likely-to-default-on-debt-worth-rs-11000-crore/articleshow/54956878.cms?utm_source=twitter.com&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=ETTWMain

Discl.invested this week in balrampur and dhampur and kakatiya.

Whats going in EGYPT…no sugar at all…countrg ran out of stock…

Good result as expected by DWARIKESH…37cr NEt profit…!last Q it was 31 crores…
Eps shooting to 75plus now…!!by next q trailing EPS for DWARIKESH can be whopping 100/- plus…
Next week diwali n such good results may make other sugar stocks rocket too

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if we compare YOY results of Dwarikesh the profit is almost Flat …

did anyone notice recent share holding pattern of Dwarikesh , promoter stake has come down but new FII have enter and increased their holding … Morgan Stanley, Nomura have entered … which should be a good sign !

really dont know if the results are all discounted or which way the market may react …
hopefully Sugar Stock rally should start now !

One should go through the Presentation of DS to understand, the improvement in Industry coming. Need to show patience as investor. I must thank @Mehnazfatima for guiding us till data and always asking us to hold patience

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