Subashnayak_1983's portfolio


(HG) #101

hehe…me too. My sorry record includes selling astral, atul auto & L&T Fin only for them to take off…

…(I have a pretty solid track record of selling stocks and stock starting upward rally; Latest example: sold my minor holding greenply (2% portfolio) to increase canfin and bang, greenply up 15%)…


(Subash Nayak) #102

Thanks Vivek bhai,

No idea why Kaveri is going up and up. Had seen one outside-india research house report on Kaveri with target of 2500 odd (don’t remember where I have seen it); To add to it, few of valuepickr seniors sold most of their Kaveri. Thanks to my past experience, I am reluctant to sell all of any stock. Same story with La Opala too.

These days I am busy reading books (This year I will fill my quota of 40 books, have missed it in last 2 yrs). The more I read, the more I feel that I know very little of investing. There are so many variations of investing, one can spend 4-5 years reading books on them and still there will be plenty to read. So keeping bit low here. Will try to increase my post frequency. I will try to post book reviews here in the forum.


(Vivek Gautam) #103

From stock market perspective only 1 book as species by Hitesh Bhai One Up is sufficient IMHO.keep on reading n retreading it.

Also if possible answer my queries which I had raised in Rudra portfolio thread.


(Subash Nayak) #104

Hi Vivek bhai,

The issue with reading just one book (however great it may be) is that your knowledge will be just limited to the knowledge imparted by that book. This is pretty similar to condition of “man with a hammer syndrome”; you have a hammer, and everything starts looking like a nail.

In real world, you need a plethora of tools/mental models, which are derived from various disciplines to see the world in a proper perspective. One need to refine/improve his models by self-experience or by learning from experience of others. The second seems to me the best way to do (as Charlie Munger has rightly said, one doesn’t need to pee on an electric fence to know what might happen after that). Reading more good/quality books is one of the easiest way to achieve it.

I strongly disagree with the school of thought that tell that you need 1, 4, or N books and your reading quota is done. To me, it is more dangerous than reading no books, as in the later case at least you won’t be having the false impression that you know pretty much everything.

Regards,

-Subash


(Hitesh Patel) #105

agree with subash. If you are into investing and want to read books dont limit yourself to only a few books. try to read as many books as possible. Subconsciously one tends to imbibe all the details in various books and that often helps in developing a multidisciplinary approach.

One Up no doubt is a great book but not the only book on investment. Reason for rereading it often is bcos I like the way it is written in a lucid and easy manner.

A great addition to someone reading One Up is Pat dorsey’s book --FIve principles of successful stock investing – this is a more theoretical book but very useful.


(Subash Nayak) #106

Reduced Dishman

Added ARBL, Unichem, Ajanta, CanFin, PolyMedicure, Granules, Aarti Drugs and Caplin Point La


(Subash Nayak) #107

Sold all of Dishman, and Granules. Time to say good bye to old favs, and get going on with better stories. I am starting to get a feel why Hitesh bhai is generally adverse to company with high debts.

Added Ajanta (now my 3rd largest holding) and Den Network.

Hitesh bhai,

Just curious, why don’t you like Media sector stocks like Den, Hathway, TV18, TV Today, Zee TV, Zee News. Recent good results of Den indeed shows that digitization is going to be game changer for media sector industry.


(Rajarshi) #108

Hi Subash,

Any specific reason for exit from Dishman…Also what is your strategy for la opala at CMP?


(Subash Nayak) #109

Hi Rajarshi,

To me Dishman was a trunaround play, and I had a nice ride with it. I don’t think its business is as excellent as the other pharma stories like Ajanta/Unichem, see margin, ROE, ROCE figures.

Post awesome result by Ajanta, to me it made sense to book a small loss in Dishman and converted the same to Ajanta, which to me has a much better story, ROE/ROCE, growth number and return/risk ratio.

I have a very small holding in La Opala, and planning to add it in a slow manner, spread over a time period. To me it has a very good story, and good future potential.

Regards,

-Subash


(Hitesh Patel) #110

subash,

I have totally missed the bus in this digitisation story and havent read anything about any stocks of the sector.

Been quite happy with the things I know a lot about like ajanta, unichem, greenply, etc.


(Subash Nayak) #111

Sold ~40% of Ajanta at ~640 range.

Added ARBL, Unichem, Can Fin, Poly Medicure, Cera, Kajaria, Den network, Caplin Point, Atul auto, and RS Software. Sort of buying my entire portfolio (except few select stock).


(Rajarshi) #112

Subash,

Have you purchased Cera and Kajaria as they are trading around 50 and 150 DMA? My understanding is that you are accumulating for long term.


(Subash Nayak) #113

Hi Rajarshi,

Frankly speaking Technical analysis is beyond my cup of tea. I don’t know why do they work, and when will they fail, so I maintain a safe distance from it (sorry if I hurt some folks sentiments). All I care are the fundamentals, growth trajectory, moat, and valuation at CMP.

So I don’t look at the DMA. The max I see when there is very high upmove is the delivery %.

Yeah, I am accumulating stock for long term. I plan to increase my portfolio size by many fold in next 10 years.


(Rajarshi) #114

Totally agree with you…But in bear markets it helps in capital protection by understanding critical support levels…This is a very well known phenomenon that when a stock breaks an important support level it tends to follow substantially…No harm in protecting the capital and buying it back at the same level…My idea is to select solid fundamental stocks and then applying the technicals…


(Subash Nayak) #115

One of the gem that I got by my recent reading of “The misbehavior of the Market” by Benoit Mandelbrot (mostly known for his fractal and chaos theory), is that looking for price movement pattern in market is at best an illusion. Market has capability of showing you any pattern you seek. That when added with human psychology create the real problem. It will reinforce within your brain of these patterns.

The problem is that there are 1000s of such patterns, and we have chosen one which one we find convenient. There are absolutely no fundamental reason why the pattern shouldn’t break.

There is another problem with technical analysis too. This is what I call “signal noise problem”, In long term, price follow earnings (provided you haven’t paid a very high pe to begin with), the detail of which comes once in 3 month. So this is what I call the signal. For the rest of 89 days, stock price move here and there, without any solid reason behind them. This is what I call noise. One need to remove these noise from the price movement to get a feel of where the stock is going on. To a layman like me, technical analysis seems to be much more concentrated on the the noise, rather than the underlying fundamental signal.

Technical analysis on quarterly earning, sales, ebitda, margin might be a better option (not necessarily the correct option) than doing technical analysis of price movement. But here lies the problem, doing tech analysis on 1% of the data don’t seem like a high effort, won’t fetch us good money for the effort that we are doing, and won’t give us specialization. Besides we can’t do sophisticated point-and-figure charting, elliot wave analysis on them.

The only thing that I feel one need to look is the long term stock price movement/earning growth, movement of various ratios (whether stagnant, moving north or south). Besides we need to look for short term and long term cyclical for cyclical stocks and economy. Looking for delivery % has shown to help us little bit, and make logical to me.

The only reason we are safe doing tech analysis at valuepickr as we are doing the same for fundamentally solid stocks.

To me technical analysis which can’t predict sudden downturn of Arshiya, sudden upmove of Ajanta is a “no use” for me, as these can make or break me. Fundamentally I safe in both case (won’t touch Arshiya for super high DE ratio, and Ajanta, well as we know is a bright student in fundamental school of investing).

-Subash


(Rudra Chowdhury) #116

Subash,

Everything said and done, I feel fundamental analysis leads us to WHAT to buy, and technical to WHEN to buy.

These two make a deadly combination and is a sure shot way to make better profits/avoid losses as shown by the stalwarts at Valuepickr itself.


(Subash Nayak) #117

Hi Rudra,

I beg to disagree with you. As per my reading of books/annual letters, understanding of FA, it tells us to buy a stock when it is undervalued (irrespective of the price movement pattern), and sell it when it becomes fairly valued (if no moat), or over-valued (if has a moat).

As I have already mentioned in the FA/TA thread, it is impossible to combine stop-loss concept of TA (one of the main risk reduction strategy of TA), and buying undervalued stock of FA (cornerstone of FA) at the same time. They are anti-thesis of each other.


(RsKm) #118

Subhash,

Lets look at a situation:

Price you bough at 100

Fair value: 200

Stock went to 160 and started falling. It is now 130, technical analysts tell it is going to 110. As the stock has not reached FV, do you keep holding on to it and let all gains slip by?


(Subash Nayak) #119

As per FA, buy whenever there is a margin of safety available between Price and FV. FA is not for the guys with a short term vision. FA is suited for folks who have huge amount of patience and and a longer term horizon.

I am going to buy in small quantity on each falling. This will help me reduce my average buying price and achieve higher gain when the stock reaches in FV in future (say 200 here).

Having said that, I confess that I don’t follow margin-of-safety concept, and buying a falling knife concept in my investment style. Mine one is a mixture of copy-paste investing (following stalwart like Hitesh/Ayush/Donald/Safir), or success patterns as discussed at valuepickr, conservative sector investing like Pharma/Consumption centric stocks, and SIP type once-in-a-month investment.


(Subash Nayak) #120

Found an interesting pdf - “Cred and Credulity : A collection of Popular Delusions essays from 2009 to 2012”. Sharing fit.