Subashnayak_1983's portfolio


(Subash Nayak) #1

Hi,

Sharing my portfolio, and inviting feedback from valuepickr seniors.

Stock Weight % Overall Gain %
Mayur Uniquoter (5) 15.85 23.05
Ajanta Pharma (4) 15.30 14.94
Indag Rubber (5) 12.63 7.39
Cochin Minerals (4) 10.86 0.24
Kaveri Seed Co (5) 10.07 13.73
Balkrishna Ind (3) 7.42 6.5
Granules India (2) 6.24 3.23
Dishman Pharma (2) 5.08 1.47
Kajaria Ceramic (2) 4.91 6.82
Amara Raja Batt (2) 4.55 10.62
Alembic Pharma (2) 3.37 11.23
Atul Auto (2) 1.91 2.44
Guj Reclaim 1.81 3.87
TOTAL 100.00 9.88

(Subash Nayak) #2

Half of stocks from my portfolio are from valuepickr scorecard thread (Ajanta, Mayur, Indag, Balkrishna, Atul, and Guj Reclaim)

Cochin Mineral is a short term play on the sudden rise in synthetic rutile price. They produce world class synthetic rutile.

Kaveri Seed Co is leader in seed/germplasm space, and growing very nicely.

Granules, Dishman management have given very good projection of future earnings.

Kajaria Ceramics is a psuedo-play into indian consumer boom

Amar Raj Battery is second largest producer in automobile battery and is rumored to be in advanced stage of negotiation for supply to battery to some big client. they also supply batteries for telecom towers.


(Hitesh Patel) #3

Hi

your portfolio features many of my favorite stocks like ajanta, mayur, alembic, kaveri seeds, dishman, atul auto,indag etc.

others like balkrishna, granules, amarraja etc are on my watchlist.

looks like a good set of stocks with high chances of market beating returns.


(hemant gupta) #4

i personally like most of the stocks in the portfolio except cochin minerals and rutile. i believe that could be a part of a trading portfolio and not a long-term one. i would like a higher exposure on atul auto and gujrat reclaim and less on indag rubber.

hitesh - how are the prospects for alembic and dishman


(Subash Nayak) #5

Thanks Hitesh Bhai/Hemant for your feedback.

I don’t have much info on the stock story behind Alembic, except one where it has been recommended as a multibagger stock by PN Vijay. So I have reduced the exposure to it.

I have sold all of Cochin Minerals, and have added Kilburn Engineering in place of it. I have also started a small position in Astral Poly Teck and Mazda.

I am quite bullish on Indag because of the quality and consistency of management, and the numbers they are having. Planning to make it my top holding.


(Hitesh Patel) #6

hemant, alembic and dishman both are on cusp of very strong growth.

after a poor string of quarterly results, dishman seems to be getting on track.

alembic will have a reasonably good fy 13 but real kicker will start from fy 14 when growth is likely to be much higher.


(hemant gupta) #7

Thanks hitesh,

What are the drivers for such strong growth in alembic and dishman? And what kind of growth are you expecting?

I remember you are more bullish on unichem laboratories? would you prefer these two on that?

**

hemant,

** growth.after **

** track.alembic **

higher.

**


(Hitesh Patel) #8

alembic growth driver will be both domestic and export segments. They are also in the midst of some expansions. Fruits of these are likely to be seen in fy 14.

dishman is more of a turnaround story with things gradually falling in place after going haywire over past few quarters. Carbogen amcis has started turning around and if it can start contributing significantly to bottomline things can get interesting.

yes I am bullish on unichem and I think in next 1-2 quarters, its act in the domestic segment is likely to fall in place. Exports are already going great. Biggest plus for unichem is that it is a debt free company. In the past it has generated a fair bit of market fancy and I dont see any reason why it should not be fancied once its results start showing good profit growth.


(hemant gupta) #9

hi hitesh,

thanks for the clarifications. what are your views on granules india. management has set very high ambitions. with the expansions lined up and with company venturing more towards finished dosages, the company seems primed for good days ahead.

Thanks hitesh,


(hemant gupta) #10

hitesh,

dishman has come up with some good results. did you have a chance to look at them.


(Hitesh Patel) #11

yes the turnaround seems to be on track. Stock price also has appreciated from around 50-55 levels to current levels of around 80. Looks good to buy on declines now onwards.


(hemant gupta) #12

**

Thanks hitesh. Also, if I remember you were decently bullish on Hawkins and expect a 25-30% growth for the next 2 years. Do you think they have managed to get over their labour problems and hence now ready to get back to the growth path?

hitesh,

dishman has come up with some good results. did you have a chance to look at them.

yes onwards.

**


(Subash Nayak) #13

Concentrated my portfolio. The new look.

Stock Weight
Mayur Uniquoter (9) 23.29
Dishman Pharma (8) 18.50
Alembic Pharma (5) 14.78
Kaveri Seed Co (4) 12.09
Ajanta Pharma (3) 11.90
Granules India (5) 9.32
Cera Sanitary 7.48
Divis Labs (2) 2.63

(Vivek Gautam) #14

There was rumor of financial bungling news in press today in Divis lab.Did it resulted in sudden crash in Dishmans price from 105 to 93 today?

Divis management denied the news.


(Subash Nayak) #15

Yes, See the link below for official communication regarding this.

http://t.in.com/drxL


(Subash Nayak) #16

Thanks to nice company policy of cheap loan (at around 7%) worth 2 months of salary, loaded up bunch of stocks. Hope this leverage gives me positive results.

Dishman Pharma (9) 14.99
Kaveri Seed Co (7) 14.82
Mayur Uniquoter (6) 14.79
Alembic Pharma (7) 11.82
Granules India (7) 11.72
Astral Poly Tec (3) 8.75
Unichem Labs (2) 7.31
Aarti Drugs (2) 6.09
Ajanta Pharma (2) 4.91
Supreme Ind 2.96
Cera Sanitary 1.83

(hemant gupta) #17

interesting. although i am not a fan of using leverage to invest in stocks. what is the rationale behind aarti drugs? i heard our dear tulsianji recommending a couple of days back.


(Vinod MS) #18

Interesting to see that Astral and Supreme has already taken a neat % in your portfolio. So you finally sorted out the valuation bit :slight_smile:

Ya, and whats story ofaarti drugs?

Vinod M S


(Subash Nayak) #19

Me too not a very big fan of using leverage to buy stock. I am a guy who try to maintain a 50:50 ratio of equity:debt instrument. But this cheap loan, with interest on reducing balance, deduction of EMI at source made me take this bet.

Progressively decreasing DE ratio, Debt level, is resulting in increase in EPS for Aarti Drugs. The dividend yield is also 3%+. As per our dear tulsianjee the expected EPS is 32 in FY13, to me it can come to around 28 or so. So at a PE of 7 the future share price should come in and around 196-224, which is around 26-50% share price appreciation in a year or so.

I am even not taking into account of the midcap pharma pe re-rating that is going on in and around, and the pe re-rating that will happen to Aarti drugs because of the debt reduction that will happen to it, or good growth in sales that Aarti has shown in last 3-4 years.


(Rudra Chowdhury) #20

Interesting moves, still going by that limit of 15% per stock ? I notice no of transactions reduced for Mayur from 9 to 6, means you have booked part profits ? What is your take on banks and NBFCs ? No place in your portfolio ?