Subashnayak_1983's portfolio


(Manish Vachhani) #81

Subhash,

Congratulations for the house. It is indeed a great feeling to own a house.


(narendra ) #82

thanks for the clarification.May not suits lazy investors like me.Congrats for the house , hope you will enjoy.


(Rakesh) #83

Too much allocation to Mayur Uniquoters.


(Subash Nayak) #84

My latest portfolio, post stock sell to book a flat. Note that I have a high portfolio allocation to Hawkins, but I feel this is OK, as the % of Hawkins as compared to my net worth in very small (equity is just 9% of my portfolio)

Stock Weight
Hawkins Cooker 24
Unichem Labs (2) 10
Mayur Uniquoter (2) 10
Astral Poly Tec (2) 8
Dishman Pharma (2) 8
Cera Sanitary (2) 6
Amara Raja Batt 5
Ajanta Pharma 5
Kajaria Ceramic 5
Kaveri Seed Co 4
Granules India 4
Atul Auto 4
Poly Medicure 3
La Opala RG 3

(Rudra Chowdhury) #85

Great Subash,

If you can manage equities alongside handling housing loan EMIs and managing liquidity, nothing like it.

But I would suggest have a contingency fund of 3-6 months expenses in cash/liquid funds. Will be a lot helpful in case of liquidity crunches (if any)


(Subash Nayak) #86

Rudra,

I am yet to take my home loan, need to take the same after the proper lunching of the project (may be after 2-4 month). Then the real fun is expected to begin :slight_smile:

-Subash


(Subash Nayak) #87

Hi Rakesh,

Needles to say, Mayur has been the only multi-bagger in my portfolio. Had been holding it from pre-split 420 odd price (sold bunch of them to get the tax benefit because of bonus). For companies like Mayur, you don’t need to add more money to stock to increase the % in portfolio, it grew automatically by itself. That is the beauty of Mayur Uniquoter (and all quality small cap, with excellent ROE, ROCE, management, … ).

2-3 such stock in your portfolio upto 40-50% of your portfolio, and you can beat 100% of all MFs, pretty much 70-80% of folks here, and get sensex beating return by a wide margin.


(Safir Anand) #88

Subash, I personally think 9 pct exposure to equity, that too based on a disciplined buy, hold approach given the nuances of all the fine research that this forum puts is too small. The issue is not what this 9 pct can do but what the 91 pct will do. And unless you have a strong reason to believe that 91 pct can compound better than 9 pct, u ought o increase the equity allocation.


(Subash Nayak) #89

Thanks Safir,

The majority of remaining 91% percentage is on real estate (my recent foray into buying a house), which I think should be a return in and around 30 +/- 5% CAGR, because of the leverage that comes with it. I feel I can do a similar CAGR in equity if I buy the stocks that are discussed in valuepickr in a stagnant market. In a bull market, equity should outperform the leverage real estate play, and in a bear market you never know how low equity can go.


(Subash Nayak) #90

Added Mayur, Astral, Ajanta, La Opala, Greenply and MPS


(Rudra Chowdhury) #91

Great Subash,

you are active again :slight_smile:

between the six on relative basis who deserves the maximum investment and why ?

if that is so, why buy six when you can buy more of the best one/two ?


(Subash Nayak) #92

Short answer - I don’t know which one will give me better return, my 1+ year of investment experience is insufficient to deduce this.

Long answer - My principle is, when in doubt, diversify; When sure, concentrate. I got this mental model from the behavior of ant colony, who have similar behavior (when searching for food, they move to various directions, when someone found a food, they make a line eventually). There is an excellent computer science algorithm based on this called "ant colony optimization Link: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ant_colony_optimization_algorithms ", which solves “Traveling salesman problem” much faster than the traditional OR based techniques.

In past, I had applied the theory, and had 66% of portfolio in midcap pharma stocks during the midcap pharma bull run. It had improved my portfolio performance by a 15-20% odd in a short duration.

:))

Added Mayur, Astral, Ajanta, La Opala, Greenply and MPS


(Rudra Chowdhury) #93

Nice one Subash :slight_smile:

reminds me of this article I read sometime back

http://seekingalpha.com/article/960271-stock-picking-by-algorithms Link: http://seekingalpha.com/article/960271-stock-picking-by-algorithms

"ant colony optimization Link: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ant_colony_optimization_algorithms ",


(Subash Nayak) #94

Just one clarification. Mine is a model-based thinking and action. Algorithmic stock picking is a very different thing altogether.

Nice one Subash :))

reminds me of this article I read sometime back

http://seekingalpha.com/article/960271-stock-picking-by-algorithms Link: http://seekingalpha.com/article/960271-stock-picking-by-algorithms

"ant colony optimization Link: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ant_colony_optimization_algorithms ",


(Subash Nayak) #95

Added Amar raja, La Opala, Ploy medicure, Can fin Homes (Hitesh Bhai’s reco), M&M Finanance (following Safir bhai), and Den Network (Following Safir Bhai)

M&M Finance, and Can Fin Homes, are my small entry into the world of consumer facing financial stocks. Other stocks in my radar in this space : GRUH Finance, Bajaj Finance, SCUF, STFC, Ing Vyasa Bank, Yes Bank, IndusInd Bank, and ICICI Bank

Den Network, is a small entry into the world of Media, and digitalization


(Safir Anand) #96

Subhash, I have Ben bullish on den since 90, mnm finance since 350 and 580, shr city union since abt 525, srt since abt 500, gruh since god knows when, Indus ind, yes bk, etc. the financial sector in terms of private cos and digitization was a theme to play when mkts were at the mercy of forex, fccb, inflation, etc. one had a game change through legislation while the other was a beneficiary of some insipid psu work and some of Bharat ie rural inda saving. I still believe digitization n financials will out perform mkts. By how much is just a guess. I think the consumption theme is a mkt performer in some cases such as unilever, Marico, pidilite all of which I don’t own. It may do moderately well in Hawkins, ttk, which I own. I personally have sold la opala a stock I initiated at 80 as I think the co has run far ahead of its worth. I am to bullish on dominos, gsk consumer, though I own and have Ben recommending gsk consumer since 2000 bucks. I think at 4000, there is merit in offloading to the promoter and playing on opportunity costs.

Satyam, tech m and Hcl are good in IT.

I have just added unitech to my portfolio, as the co has comparatively a lower debt than dlf and seems mispriced for now.


(Subash Nayak) #97

Hi Safir bhai,

Thanks for cautioning me on La Opala, will reduce it to 2% level. What are your top 5-10 picks at CMP.


(Subash Nayak) #98

My Latest Portfolio. The number of stocks just going up each and every day, thanks to my new found reluctant to sell stocks. (I have a pretty solid track record of selling stocks and stock starting upward rally; Latest example: sold my minor holding greenply (2% portfolio) to increase canfin and bang, greenply up 15%).

Stock Weight
Hawkins Cooker 18
Amara Raja Batt (2) 11
Mayur Uniquoter (3) 9
Astral Poly Tec (3) 8
Unichem Labs (2) 7
Can Fin Homes (3) 6
Dishman Pharma (2) 6
Ajanta Pharma (2) 5
Poly Medicure (2) 4
Cera Sanitary (2) 4
La Opala RG (2) 3
Kajaria Ceramic 3
TV18 Broadcast 3
Kaveri Seed Co 3
M&M Financial 3
Granules India 2
Atul Auto 2
Den Networks 2

(Vivek Gautam) #99

All solid stocks Subhash. Kaveri again touching old highs. Any updates ?

Pl post more frequently.


(Rajarshi) #100

Delay in the rollout of digitization can be a risk for den and TV18 . Mamata is again proving to be a blockade.But this risk is a minor one and by fy14 start digitization would have been completed for all Indian cities.