Ranvir's Portfolio


(ramanhp) #121

Not price monitoring but the recovery shown today shows high demand for this stock. It recovers pretty quickly after even minor falls.


(ranvir dehal) #122

@Matt1985…Hi.

Between the two its a close one…u r right. V Guard is slightly cheaper on valuation front ( if one adjusts for 45 cr of exceptional brand building spend they had set aside for q4 fy 18 )…but not by much.

Since I had previous positions in V Guard and it had corrected, so I just bought some more.


(ranvir dehal) #123

This is an interesting one…it has the potential to disrupt and expand the 3 wheeler and intra city taxi space in India. Lets see how it goes.


(Matt1985) #124

Thanks Ranvir. I tend to agree with you.

But what may set VGuard stand apart would be management integrity. The promoter and his sons are known for it in the state of Kerala. They were from humble origins.

Haven’t heard anything good or bad about Havells management. Does anybody know more about Havells management

Regards,
Matt


(ranvir dehal) #125

I have never heard anything bad about management integrity at Havells.
Used to track it actively 5-6 yrs ago.

Just an observation - They are very aggressive when it comes to business expansion and do not shy away from large acquisitions…which is not bad. It had back fired once - when they bought the European Lighting Giant Sylvania which they later had to exit as they could not turn it around.

I dont see such fears wrt Lloyd"s consumer Durables Business…its an opinion.


(mylu) #126

Same reason for my holding of vguard also :slight_smile:


(ranvir dehal) #127

Bought some more V Guard due stock price correction and my assessment of sound business fundamentals…although I could only manage a small quantity due cash shortage.

Disc: 100 % invested in equity. No FDs, Gold or Real Estate.


(Karthick Chennai) #128

Thank you Ranvir for sharing your wisdom and thought process…


(ranvir dehal) #129

Disc: Bought TVS Srichakra at CMP.
I Think its resonably valued. So, took the plunge.

Regards,
Ranvir Dehal


(ranvir dehal) #130

Disc: Bought HDFC ltd and Hero Motocorp in the current market fall.

Hero Moto- Its a contrarian bet.
HDFC- I think there is some valuation comfort.

Regards,
Ranvir Dehal


(Srinivasan Sundaram) #131

what about HDFC bank?


(ranvir dehal) #132

Hi…
I also hold HDFC bank. And it is supposedly a long term core holding.

However did not buy it as I thought that valuation of HDFC ltd were more appealing and it has multiple business streams like- stake in hdfc bank, hdfc standard life, hdfc ergo, hdfc amc, gruh finance, credila finance etc. All of them are excellent subsidaries.

So…I got tempted to buy it. After today’s fall, I think it has become even more attractive.

Regards,
Ranvir Dehal


(ranvir dehal) #133

Disc:
Bought Maruti Suzuki and Nestle India in today’s mkt fall.
Maruti at 52 week low and FY 19 PE of 25 looks good to me.
Nestle…after a 20% correction…also looks good.
So, took the plunge.


(ranvir dehal) #134

Had no cash.

So took a loan.

Bought HDFC ltd and Maruti Suzuki today. I thought valuations are quite tempting.


(MHS) #135

Hi Ranvir

How is the PF performance, last one month and this year to date, if u can share.

By the way one of the best PF strategies u adopt here in VP forum, just buying High Quality Businesses.

Thank q


(sko5prasad) #136

Took a loan for PF building ?


(ranvir dehal) #137

@MHS and @sko5prasad…

Hi,

Yes , I try and keep it simple.If a business is difficult to understand, I just ignore it( irrespective of perceived business/stock upsides ).

Reason- If u dont understand something well, u will never have the courage to buy if it falls.

It has worked well for me in the last 5 yrs or so.

My annualized CAGR in last 5 yrs or so would be around 17‚Äď18 %
( accounting for the Sep - Oct rout in stock prices) . Otherwise it would have been higher. (22-23% or so)

Last 1 year has been largely flat to mildly negetive.

In the last one month, i guess my portfolio is down 18-19 percent … which is a substantial fall. But overall, it has been good going in last 5 years.

Good thing ( my personal view ) is that the market is down at very healthy levels ( ie buying worthy ) and I have bought stocks with all that I have and some bit of leverage ( loans ).


(ranvir dehal) #138

In the recent stock prices rout, I did some descent amount of buying and some portfolio reshuffling.

Therefore I thought, it would be prudent to post my updated portfolio.

Here it goes-

BANKING AND FINANCE

HDFC ltd - 9.3%…INCREASE IN PORTFOLIO WT
HDFC Bank- 8.8 %…INCREASE IN PORTFOLIO WT
Indusind Bank- 7.3%…INCREASE IN PORTFOLIO WT

CONSUMPTION STOCKS

Dabur India - 6.3%…INCREASE IN PORTFOLIO WT
Marico- 8.6%…INCREASE IN PORTFOLIO WT
Jyothy Labs - 5.5%…NO INC/DEC IN HOLDINGS
Emami - 4.2%…SOLD SOME STAKE. CONVERTED TO DABUR and MARICO
Godrej Consumer - 9.7%…NO INC/DEC IN HOLDINGS
Britannia- 4.8%…NO INC/DEC IN HOLDINGS
Nestle- 5.4%…NEW ADDITION @ Rs 9300

CONSUMER DURABLES

TTK Prestige - 6.2%…NO INC/DEC IN HOLDINGS
V-Guard - 3.85%…NO INC/DEC IN HOLDINGS
Finolex Cables- 2.8%…NO INC/DEC IN HOLDINGS
Century Ply - 3.1%…INCREASE IN PORTFOLIO WT

AUTOS

Bajaj Auto - 3.3%…NO INC/DEC IN HOLDINGS
Hero Moto - 4.2%…NO INC/DEC IN HOLDINGS
TVS Srichakra - 2.8%…NO INC/DEC IN HOLDINGS
Maruti Suzuki - 4.0%…NEW ENTRY @ Rs 7300

Complete Exits -

Lupin ( sold at a loss. but I thought that better opportunities were avlb in the market. So converted the stake into likes of HDFC, HDFC bank, IndusInd Bank etc )

Bajaj Finance ( sold after 8 fold returns. I was nervous about the valuations. Converted it into Maruti Suzuki, Nestle, Dabur and Marico. It was an emotional decision. May even turn out to be wrong in long term. But I was worried about the valuations.)

Aim -

  1. To generate atleast 17-18% CAGR returns per year.

  2. To keep portfolio as consumer facing as possible.

  3. To buy and hold companies with minimal capex requirements. Although that’s not true in auto sector. But most auto stocks are trading bets ( 1-3 yr types ). Except maybe- Maruti Suzuki.

  4. To ensure that the companies that I buy generate ample Free Cash and hence give out generous dividends.

  5. To remain in industries / companies, where there is min tech disruption and strong brand recalls.


(ranvir dehal) #139

Just sharing some updates about new launches in the auto sector ( since i hold maruti, bajaj auto and hero moto ) -

Both of them - The Ertiga and Husqvarna variants look really really good.
My estimate- new Ertiga should do better than outgoing model ( which itself was a big hit ) and Husqvarna should help Bajaj replicate KTMs sucess in India ( if not better it ).
So…fingers crossed.

Hero, meanwhile has launched the 125 cc Destini scooter. Im just sharing the pricing below-
Hero Destini 125 Price

Variant Ex -Showroom Price Key Features
Destini 125 LX 124.6 cc Rs. 54,650 View On Road Price Drum Brakes Front, Alloy Wheels, Tubeless Tyre, Digital Fuel Indicator view all
Destini 125 VX 124.6 cc Rs. 57,500 View On Road Price Drum Brakes Front, Alloy Wheels, Tubeless Tyre, Digital Fuel Indicator view all

It undercuts Activa 5G and TVS N Torq by a huge margin ( both are avlb at > Rs 60,000 price points )…that should strike a chord with Indian Customers.


#140

Hi Ranvir,

I think you have been a pro fmcg sector investor for quite some time. correct me if I am wrong. Not getting into whys of this, can you help me with your reco. I hold Pidilite, Britannia & GSK Con…whats your views on these.

Godrej consumer has corrected a lot, sept quarter results look great but see other income as a significant contributor. Minus OI, results are stagnant.

Any new addition that you wish to recommend…pls do. Essentially, I am looking for long term growers. Typical coffee can types :slight_smile: