Happened to see recent new stock ideas in the forum. I request the members to do due dilgence before buying shares of these relatively unknown companies. What worries me is some of these stocks are hitting upper circuits after the info is published. I am not saying all the info. Is incorrect, I see some reports are too rosy than required.
I sincerly request all the members extra cautious. I know Donald, Ayush, Hitesh and other senior members surely guide others in the right direction.
Sometimes, I felt that this esteemed forum has become like the other so called valuepick blogs, where in a double would have already happened, when the stockpick is announced and this will be followed by another 2x via UCs, in following sessions, post the posting. This used to be the norm for these blogs. This forum is almost becoming like that. I am not saying the stocks discussed here are not genuine but recent occurrences of a run, within minutes of something coming here is proving to be a concern for me. Speculators, rumor mongers, operators - god knows who else read it up and drive things crazy - and that too within minutes !!
It will be great if you flag such posts and bring it to the attention of the moderators, so that proper action can be taken. The ethos of ValuePickr is something we cherish a lot and will take strong action in all such cases.
I agree 100% with Mr. Kalyan. So, I requested many time to mention the market price at which the thread for particular stock was initiated. Those stocks might have appreciated 2x or 3x and still we are discussing and some new Investors will be carried away and try to buy at very high price and the margin of safety at high price for any share is very less.
Inspite of my several humble requests neither the moderators nor the members never bothered about mentioning the price at which the stock as discussed.
As you said sir, this blog is also sailing in the same boata s of other blogs , instead of separating wheat from chaff.
âInspite of my several humble requests neither the moderators nor the members never bothered about mentioning the price at which the stock as discussed.
As you said sir, this blog is also sailing in the same boata s of other blogs , instead of separating wheat from chaff.â
Also as Abhishek suggested above we have to raise the flag whenever things going incorrect. Its not only Moderators responsibility but we as a group have to do it.
Daer mr. Pavan Kumar,
Is there any difficulty in mentioning the cmp of the stock while initiating a thread??
If Mr. Donald suggests, all will follow.
Mr. Ayush and Mr. Hitesh used to mention the price in their respective threads. Others also can follow.
I apologize not be able post my understanding on real estate as promised. It has been very hectic both personal and professional level to make any contributions to Valuepickr.
I consider myself as passive investor and donât shuffle portfolio that frequently. I have learned over the years - nothing is worth the peaceful sleep at night.I always need to make sure my greed, fear and ego (I think it is slowly creeping here in some of our discussions) does not takeover my rational thinking. I should feel lucky when market gives good returns; if not probably I need to learn from the experience. No experience is bad if I can perceive every mistake is an opportunity to learn.
Here is my latest portfolio with a negative return of -0.65 % from July 2015. I think the next few months going to be tough for the market. I would be adding more shares during this period if my cash situation permits.
like the medical disposable industry, however I think company should have been more successful in expanding their product basket
Kitex: closed my position in Kitex.
feel company should have been more forthcoming clarifying the doubts raised by some our members.
I donât doubt the management, but I think the reluctance to answer the questions made me rethink about transparency (am I nitpicking?). May add it back in portfolio when the dust settles.
NBCC: added more shares in July to August period. I think it is in a sweet spot. I usually donât invest in public sector companies. However, in the case NBCC interests of GOI and other shareholders are in sync.
Paushak: added in July. It is almost like a monopoly with huge entry barriers.
Shaily: added in July. Good industry segment. Liked it when I saw Ikea and other big MNCs as some of the customers.
Sold some Bajaj finance shares as part of portfolio rebalancing. Sitting on good amount of cash. Will wait for some more time before increasing exposure to stocks.
Looks like I did good by selling my major holdings in kaveri, mayor and astral 4 to 5 months before to enter real estate. There is a decent appreciation in real estate property from my entry price.
I strongly believe no market guru can pretict market changes accurately. It is our hard earned money, we can protect it only by thinking objectively and independently.
@ambore Hi Ramana - Your posts are impressive. It seems you are investing for many years. I would like to know how you derive management capabilities while doing your stock analysis.
I would also like to know from where you usually get data points for your analysis. Are they from reading companies annual reports or are they from some other sources like websites etc?
Appreciate if you can share your approach to shortlisting of stocks and their analysis from the initial stage by taking a one or two example. It would be helpful for me as well as ValuePickr members.
@pressy79t Most of my picks are due to my positive personal experience or from Valuepickr.
The first thing I usually do when I know about a company is - to do search on the company any fraudulent, unethical or questionable deeds of the management. If I am not satisfied I donât do further research on the company.
Then I read interviews by the management and MD & A from AR for better understanding of the company and how gets impacted by macro economy. I also speak to friends if there any rumours which donât get published in news papers. Porterâs 5 forces framework also helps me to understand the moat. Any red flags, I would stop further work.
Then I look at growth numbers, return ratios, cash flows, etc. I do check P/E, but it is not a show stopper. If I find any issues I will dig further. If not, I add the company with a tracking position. If my opinion of the company does not change for the next few months, I will add more. When I strongly believe the management, I try to give benefit of doubt. If I find any any serious issues later, I will still come out of it with no hesitation.
I try not to have more companies from same industry from portfolio management perspective. When economic indicators are bad, I try to reduce my exposure to stock market. I have seen three major crashes from 1998. I am lucky to escape with good profits two times. Once, I got screwed as I got greedy and leveraged my portfolio for real estate investment.
I feel most of the things in life are simple to understand, we complicate them unnecessarily (Last week, I was trying to measure portfolio risk by calculating co-variance, correlation coefficients, etc. based on historical numbers when I knew by my practical exp. that correlation coefficients would be close to 1 during major uptrends and downtrends when most of the stocks tend to behave in a similar way).
This is how I do it. It may or may not work for you.
Thanks a lot Ramana for replying with valuable information.
Please let me know from where we can get management credibility? Please let me know if there are any websites to provide such information. Basically, how you usually find questionable deeds of management?
Remaining things which you mentioned, we can get from AR and other sources like financial portals.
Please also let me know what economic indicators you weight a lot. Please provide me source of those economic indicators.
Not much movement in portfolio. The new entrants Paushak and shaily are doing good. Polymed has been a disappointment. Portfolio size reduced to one fourth of its size when sold kaveri, Mayur, Astral and part of Polymed to move money to real estate around 4-6 months ago. Came out of small holding in Polymed yesterday. Feel it will take some more time for any improvement in economy to get reflected in quarterly statements. I am not expecting portfolio to give anything more than 15 % in best case scenario.
Cleared CFA Level 1. It is really great way challenging yourself and excel in the field that you are really passionate about. Learned so many things while preparing for the exam.
Portfolio is showing around 27 % from July 2016. It is really a tough year for stock market. Came out of usual favourites here Mayur, Kaveri, Astral, Polymer, etc., last year. Looks like they are either at or below exit price. I guess I got lucky. The money from these stocks ploughed for buying a weekend hhouse in Chennai. Will post latest portfolio when I get some time. Laopala, NBC, Shilpa, Baja finance are doing good.
Here is my latest portfolio. I have reset the cost prices of my shares to their yesterdayâs closing prices. As I said before, my portfolio showed around 27 % return for last one year.
Congrats for level1 .
What is your view on taking SH kelkar stock, they have reduced debt(gud thing) but where is the growth coming from?
The AR states very positive changes specially from management point of getting more professional teams
It should really grow atleast 20-25% CAGR to justify valuations
Good choice of stocks. I am particularly interested to know about your thoughts on Shilpa Medicare. I been holding it from very high levels. At the time of buying, I felt that Shilpa has good rollout ahead but has not quite turned out to my expectations. Your views are appreciated.
