Rain Industries - An oversold de-leveraging play


(vikas1102) #132

Can u give the details,
The CPC that rain make is used by which industry? And if multiple than percentage of each industry.

Thank you


#133

You could get the answers if you read the entire thread. Certainly you may ask any question and the forum to my understanding, encourages it. Since you are new here, my humble suggestion would be to spend some time to do the research on your own- that way you will get to know the company in more depth.

Here is a corporate presentation Aug 2017 which gives the details.

RainIndustries-CorporatePresentation-August,2017.pdf (2.5 MB)


(ranjeetpatil9997) #134

thats fentastic news atleast our stocks will not fall


(AMN) #135

(1.5cr) #136

Personally, if the scrip corrects by another 20-30% I will be increasing my allocation. At current levels it seems fully valued. All the news about rain and graphite etc: is completely fake and false. If anything it gives serious investors a chance of averaging up, a chance many of us didnt have as the stock flew up so fast. That being said as the reaches close to 400 it would be an exit for me. This market has got me very frustrated, I dont understand how investors have allowed the market to get so expensive. You cannot find an investment without overpaying. Im sitting on 50% cash and I will continue to do so, until things cool off. I dont know when things will cool off, but my understanding is very soon. A person asked a question at an investing workshop recently, “If the price of the stock moves up then wont the gains be reflected in the balance sheet?” this is the level of knowledge and these people are entering the markets. I’m 100% certain that we will see a healthy correction if not a big one in the near future.


(Nolan) #137

Dear @1.5cr,
I am sorry about your frustration but it reminds me of the popular Peter Lynch quote that “Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections, or trying to anticipate corrections, than has been lost in corrections themselves.” Lets be frank, none of us can be absolutely sure about the market direction. However, there are two kinds of investors I come across nowadays. Ones like you feel that a correction is due because market is overbought and highly valued. Time has passed since Brexit, Surgical strike, Trump Win, Indo-China stalemate, North Korea nuclear threat etc. Yet market still looks strong after India’s rating upgrade. Second type of investors I come across look at the macro picture and say that all the economic reforms in last 1-2 years would eventually reflect in improved earnings sooner or later rationalizing the valuations. The second type still is fully invested and making money alongwith proving Lynch’s quote as correct so far. There is nothing wrong in taking a contrarian bet, but if it is resulting in frustration because of loss of money and opportunity cost, then in my opinion, it is good to review it. I agree with you that there are hardly any undervalued pockets in the current markets. That’s why value investing loses relevance in a bull market and growth investing gains prominence. Staying with growth stories in current market can make much more money than looking for undervalued pockets. In bull market valuations go for a toss, and for this very reason, till Rain’s story is ripe one must try and stay with it. Rain being cheap at 280-300 and steep at 400 is just mental maths which seems to make us feel more intelligent. However, in reality, market is smarter than all of us, and each one of us is better off being a part of the trend rather than predicting it or taking contrarian bets.
http://awealthofcommonsense.com/2014/08/peter-lynch-stock-market-losses/


Bhansali Engineering Polymers - An Import Substitution Story!
(yudiagg) #138

Interestingly - Money control “now” introduces Rain Industry as a great
buy!!! Will it go up by 5% tomorrow???


(Tolaha) #139

From above link:

“We had handpicked a set of dozen investment ideas around Diwali – our equal-weighted “Diwali Portfolio” – with an eye on medium to long-term returns that would handsomely beat the benchmark and deliver the proverbial alpha.”

Moneycontrol calls it a medium to long term portfolio but then drops and adds to the portfolio within 2 months!


(khushi) #140

First an analyst on CNBC TV 18 gives a sell call and then their website gives a buy call …

What should one make of it ???


(Akshay Kumar) #141

Do your own analysis and build your own conviction.
Almost 100% jump in one month and 25% correction, somuch of reaction allover.


(onefoothurdle) #142

I think its important to have an estimate of the price of a company, if the stock never went to 400 and went from 40 to 300 would we still think that stock is cheap at 300? I think it might be worth 400 but its a cycical commodity stock, it can go anywhere but price is important for it as well. its not something like nestle or page industries which will keep growing for a long time and you can hold forever (unless things change).


(Akshay Kumar) #143

When Mind is:
Weak- Situation becomes a Problem
Balanced- Situation becomes a Challenge
Strong- Situation becomes an Opportunity

Thanks to Rajat sharma @ Sana securities for the tweet


(amberjain2001) #144

why rain industries reversed the trend in a day…is it a game by operators? same happened for graphite india, goa carbon and HEG…Any news?


(naruto) #145

I checked the delivery quantity/Traded Quantity for Rain, Graphite India, Goa Carbon and HEG.

  • Rain - 20.11% (Yesterday it used to be around 34 odd)
  • HEG - 19.11%
  • Goa Carbon - 15.29%
  • Graphite India - 20.29%

I suspect operator play. Experienced forum members are requested to share their inputs.

Any source to check historical trends of delivery volume?

Source: http://www.bseindia.com/stock-share-price/rain-industries-ltd/rain/500339/

Disclosure: Tracking Position.


(malayruparel) #146

I believe you can check it on moneycontrol.com. visit company, click icon near to delivery.


(naruto) #147

Thanks for sharing the information. Here is the Deliverably Qty/Traded Qty for the last 3 months.

Source: http://www.moneycontrol.com/deliverable-volumes-price/rainindustries/RC12


(Rahul B) #151

Hi @naruto, I am newbie here. can you please provide your analysis based on the chart above.


(naruto) #152

Hi @rahulbdhandho ,

I want to highlight the amount of speculation - the blue component - which is affecting the stock price. Golden component refers to the “Delivery” - which refers to the # of transactions where people buy to retain.

Request views of other experienced valuepickrs


#153

For Nov 22, the combined delivery % for Rain Industries is 29.1%
(BSE:20.1% and NSE: 30.6%)

Source :Stockedge


(1.5cr) #154

I personally feel that the forum should moderate technicals. Technicals often times have nothing to do with earnings growth. I’m sure majority of us here think that we buy companies, not the stock market. We analyse businesses not charts. Volatility in a stock price is not risk, it is an opportunity to buy/doesnt matter. Volatility in business is risk. Goa is a nice place if you want to focus on trends.