Rain Industries - An oversold de-leveraging play


(Bhavin) #112

Correction is good for a stock. But there’s some level of manipulation going on here.


(amberjain2001) #113

I agree as i had been following Mr Tulsian and he keeps referring to few particular stocks which no one knows and even revenues are never inline for ex cineline, kingfa, 8k miles, Kitex and all. All have been big failurs in last one year…his views are always biased and dont feel his linking of the stats and future growth leads to right valuations. Still remember in last budget, he gave a call for Cineline (at ~70) that time and it went to 96 and remained back on 70 for 1 year. same i happening now but a really dudd stock


(amberjain2001) #114

(Akshay Kumar) #115

Increase or decrease in graphite prices has got very little to do with Rain Ind revenue.


(Bhavin) #116

Can anybody help analyze the impact of ban of pet coke by SC on Rain Industries?


(sunilgct) #117

Many investors r worrying abt petcoke ban by supreme court…first of all this has no effect on rain industries.rain make cpc and ban is for gpc ie green pet coke which is fuel grade coke used by mostly cement company as a fuel…cpc is low sulfer coke , anode grade coke used by aluminium smelters to make anode…this is used in propotion of 40 percent…and as of now no alternate is available for cpc.as far as ban is considered gpc is raw material for cpc and due to ban gpc will get cheaper I think, thus difference between gpc and cpc which is now 100 to 120 dollar may widen more resulting in greater profit margin for rain industries


(sunilgct) #118

And most importantly the ban is UP , Haryana and Rajasthan where Rain has no presence And as mentioned even Otherwise it should not have any Impact. Views welcome…


(Bhavin) #119

Why would a ban of pet coke reduce it’s prices?
It should increase the price of pet coke. Supreme court has also recommended nation wide ban.


(sunilgct) #120

Clarifying and want to set right after speaking to anil Upadhay Company Secretary for Rain

The ban is only UP/Haryana/Rajasthan
The ban is Generally in climate which are prone to cold and fog and rain has its blending plant in Vizag AP where the climate is moderate and most importantly
The Ban is for fuel Grade pet coke and not GPC used by Rain and moreover
Rain gets most of the intermediaries from US(check out investor presentation of 2016 ) and same as been clarified again today
High Sulphur GPC in USA from prevalence of GPC production -->Intermediate Blend from USA to India -->Central Blending in India of US/China/India Production
They have already installed Flue Gas Desulfurization (FGD) Plant in 2015 at its calcining plant in Chalmette, Louisiana, U.S. from where the Intermedaries are processed
The FGD plant helps in reducing the emission much under control .

There is absolutely no impact TO RAIN . It is business as usual for them . Dont get carried away by the rumours.when in doubt better to get clarified.


(Bhavin) #121

Thanks for the update. Just trying to make sense of the recent moves in the stock.


(sunilgct) #122

I was reading one of the older threads and happened to see this quote from Donald…
Which is so apt in the current scenario for Rain…

Back-to-Basics: pay much less attention to the price -that’s mostly all NOISE ; focus on understanding the business - that’s pure SIGNAL…


(mudit1712) #123

Is there any way to track CPC price on some exchange ?


(malayruparel) #124

http://www.sunsirs.com


(Vel) #125

I am seeing lot of advertisement for priya cement in tamil nadu news paper.
Disc: Invested.


(sunilgct) #126

IDBI has revised teh target to 418


(yudiagg) #127

Thanks for sharing. This and Motilal’s report are highly optimistic for
next year price target wrt about current price of about 300. MOS and
returns improve with stock price going down to facilitate adding
investment


(sunilgct) #128

Interesting Read …

https://www.crugroup.com/knowledge-and-insights/insights/winter-policy-warming-anode-and-petroleum-coke-prices/

In a nutshell

The global aluminum market has become extremely dependent on Chinese supply of both petroleum coke and anodes over the past two decades as China’s capacity has grown rapidly. As such, large reductions(because of winter closure and pollution control ) in output for these products will have affect raw material supply chains, particularly for the Middle East, which sources nearly 40% of its carbon requirements from China.

My sense is that they will have to look for other sources like RAIN … for the rawmaterial …


(EkVeer) #129

Rain bounced back from 20 DMA and 23.6 Fibonacci levels. Downtrend should stop now and at least consolidate. Lets see how things shape up tomorrow.
Disc: Invested from lower levels.


(pla7yer) #130

IDBI report says CTP and CPC plants in China will remain shut during Nov-March


(vikas1102) #131

Can u give the details,
The CPC that rain make is used by which industry? And if multiple than percentage of each industry.

Thank you