Rain Industries - An oversold de-leveraging play


(yudiagg) #197

While Dolly Khanna has increased holding, all other funds like ICICI,
Reliance and Goldman have completely exited - this is intriguing - even
they have solid research capabilities.Do they believe that the high price
of CPC, being a commodity, is not sustainable and that it is only a short
term transient phenomenon.


(Manohar T. Patil) #198

Thanks! Bajaar.me is really good and easy to use website. How can one go about getting simiar information from NSE?


(nkabra) #199

To the reputed members of valupickr,

Apologies but I am carrying forward the conversation by Manohar Patil.
Is there a way we can find the daily sales and buys of reputed investors=any site links… I do not go much by mutual funds or FIIs or DIIs. not able to understand their investing philosophy.


(Nolan) #200

Dear @nkabra, would request you to separately put forward this question on a relevant thread, or maybe start a new thread if there is no existing one to answer your queries. Lets keep this thread sacrosanct for discussion relevant to Rain Industries.


(ishikaghose) #201

But this is not something which small investors like me ought to emulate, is it? I cannot justify to myself - investing 40% of my money in any one stock. Eggs and baskets etc… This somehow smacks of “gambling”. I know that investors like Dolly Khanna are int he big league and they are not “gambling” - but…


(Nolan) #202

Dear @ishikaghose,
Prima facie I agree with you. But having said that, I feel investing is just as much an art as a science. So even if there are logics and thumb rules, the only ground rule is that there are none. I agree that small investors must refrain from experimenting to a limit where it might sound like gambling, but in exceptional circumstances, as long as one is truly sure of what he/she is doing, nothing is a forbidden. Big investors have the means to be privy to deeper insights and insider info to base their decisions upon, and hence their decisions, although seemingly fanatical, are backed by sound logic. For a small investor, it would be stupidity to emulate the same heroics basing it upon the borrowed conviction from a big investor. However, if some small investor has both a deep competence and insight into an investment, then making a bigger allocation to it should not be considered gambling. For eg. someone having access to a subscribed source to updated CPC prices would have an edge over others in playing cyclical bets like Rain Industries.


(Raj A A) #203

Dolly khanna average Purchase price is below Rs100 (her latest addition of 18L shares around Rs180/-) . This gives her ample of safety margin in case unexpected to happen. Their investment are time tested and long term, They donot trade and usually buy in small lots to avoid public gaze. Dolly Khanna aka Rajiv Khanna are admired and kept in high esteem even by stalwarts.They shun publicity.


(yudiagg) #204

Could you pl advise the source of info that her acquisition cost is about
Rs 180/- for the the latest 18 L shares.


(ishikaghose) #205

Yes I agree. Although I get the feeling that there is more than a little bit of luck associated with the art and science.


(ishikaghose) #206

Thank you for replying. I find it fascinating how news about what price big investors bought the shares at, is available. I just wish I knew when!! Then again I prefer to do my own reading - limited though it is in depth


(Raj A A) #207

It is only surmise. That price trend of Rain Ind during Oct was from Rs 170 to 190. Averaging the same it is Rs 180. This surmise is based on her investment mode in other scrips getting the details of monthwise investment in corresponding ARs.They catch the scrip young and usually it skyrockets after their purchase. Same is the case with Rain. We can further validate this when we get Rain Ind AR 2017.


(pla7yer) #208

The way price has moved in last few months I am not feeling comfortable holding it these days

Looks like all the tailwinds have been factored in now
The cyclical nature of the business is also a concern for me.We all project EPS for march’19 but what if China resumes it’s operations or the Al prices correct significantly
We are already a good 15 months away from FY19.


(desi.guru) #209

A US Corporate Tax Cut and now talks of Indian Govt Cutting Corp Rate Cut. Will this have any positive impact on Rain Industries?


(Hashims) #210

(sunilgct) #211

SOURCE : Idbi capital 8th Jan 2018


(Hashims) #212

The news article would probably be much more relevant under HEG, Graphite India stock threads…but no separate thread found for HEG & Graphite India, hence posted here as it is also a relevant to Rain Ind products._


(Hashims) #213

How much Rain products attains sales from domestic & export market?
If proposal of lifting anti dumping duty on electrodes becomes true, how does this impacts Rains domestic sales & margins going forward?

extract from above news article:

Imports In India
The surging electrode exports from India have almost dried up the supplies for the domestic market which became a cause of concern for the Indian users, who were left with no other options but to import from the foreign markets.

During the Jan-Oct’17 period, 2,949 MT of the electrodes was imported in India, according to the DGFT data. The import volume was however trailed behind the import of 4,076 MT in the corresponding period of 2016 by 27.6%.

The Indian importers of the electrodes are also being constrained by the imposition of Anti Dumping Duty on the imports. With the domestic supply crunch playing havoc among the Indian Graphite Electrode users, the Alloy Steel Producers Association of India (ASPA) requested the Directorate General of Anti-Dumping Duty to lift the prevailing Anti-Dumping Duty.

Also, in a proactive act to the electrode users in the country, the Steel Ministry questioned the Indian Graphite Electrode manufacturers on the factors behind the soaring prices, subsequently, the Ministry proposed to the Finance Ministry to impose an Export Duty of 30% on the electrode exports from the country. Presumably, the decision of lifting the Anti Dumping Duty in place might be considered by Feb’18.


(Maunil) #214

Please understand, Majority of Rain Industries revenue is derived from CPC, Chemicals and Cement. Their exposure to Graphite industry is less than 5% of their annual sales. Same has been clarified by the management earlier as well. So the above news should not have impact here. You can start a thread on HEG/ Graphite is its not there.

Reference here…
http://www.bseindia.com/xml-data/corpfiling/AttachHis/8b8268f6-646a-4469-8d9c-fac672d4f853.pdf


(Hashims) #215

Thanks. It helps. Noted


(Akshay Kumar) #216

Wondering if this throws some light on demand cycle of Rain products