Radico khaitan: alcoholic child

Yes, I meant that, however, most often we can only know in hindsight whether the dust has settled or not.

In case of USL peak PE in last 3 years is ~220 which clearly was unsustainable. And so PE compression was an inevitable thing given its dismal low single digits volume growth.

Radico had a peak PE of ~60 in last 3 years which was not so susceptible to compression given that Radico was growing volumes in high single digits.

Given the pedigree of USL, I believe that a PE of ~ 60 is sustainable provided volume growth sustains at high single digits. Globally Diego Plc trades at ~ 40 PE and so it can trade at a premium in India given the under-penetration of alcoholic beverages in India. However, at the same time, frequent populist policy changes make volume growth difficult in India.

It was much difficult to fathom the reason and extent of PE compression in ITC, however, we seem to have passed through the PE bottom at 12.

3 Likes

Anyone who attended the AGM ?
Any comments/note worthy pointers?

Thanks.

3 Likes

@vishalgautam07

It is always pleasure to know from industry sources about what is going on in the industry. I have been trying to understand competitive advantage of Radico, if any. You have mentioned in your comment that Owners are quite manipulative in terms of managing their operations. What do you mean by that? Are they manipulating their reported earning numbers? Or the quality of the product is not good as said or perceived? Or are they cutting corners on production process and hence OPM is not sustainable?

I believe, due to smaller size and operation, Radico may not be able to pay as per MNC. When you say it is not employee friendly, Do you mean related to compensation and perks or is it the company culture which makes it employee unfriendly?


If one notices here, Regular and other brands’ volume in million cases has not grown. In fact it is selling less number of cases, as compared to 2014. At the same time, P&A segment volume has grown by 10% CAGR. This both phenomenon has taken P&A volume % from 18% to 28% in last 5 years, which seems to me the reason of strong growth for Radico (EPS 2.7X 2014 EPS). What am i missing here?


April was washout but May and June recovery was pretty sharp. Sales recovered by 90% in June. Result for this quarter need to be checked for the level of normalcy (Q2 Result on 28th Oct). Also there is no significant difference in operating profit margin. I think USL has suffered mainly due to franchisee operation of regular & below brands. I am not exactly aware about the arrangement there, but the arrangement seemed to be fixed price up to a fix volume. Franchisee makes money once the volume crosses that certain limit. As sales dropped to zero in lock-down. Frachisee seems to have forced USL to share the loss. Why should USL share loss for franchisee, when franchisee would not share gain with them after a certain volume? It seemed to me that arrangement has not established.

There is not much down-trending expected in this category due to Covid as per comments from Anand Kripalu in USL concall. If one drinks a particular brand, s/he won’t switch brands just to save some bucks. s/he may reduce number of drinking occasions though. So overall volume might be down for some time.

5 Likes

Ques1 - As per the annual report of the company the main raw material is ENA. I imagine company has capability of converting molasses into ENA.

According to annual report of fy20, page-71, company has capacity of 157 million litre. This should be ENA capacity.

Ques2 - How can investor keep track of price of molasses?

Ques3 - According to annual report fy20 company has capacity of over 157 million litres. Also company produced 24.3 million cases. From this information can we ascertain how much is the capacity utilisation of the company?

I am trying to do a short calculation here - I don’t know if this right.

1 case = 12 bottles
1 bottle = 750ml or 0.75 litre

24.3 million cases = 218.7 million litre
whereas companies capacity is only 157 million litres.

I simple do not know where I may wrong?

Question 3: we can’t calculate like that.

Whisky and Brandy are something they need to store sometime in casks for ageing and bottle it later. Gin and vodka they will not do ageing here

And while in casks there is loss in quantity due angels share and while bottling there is gain in quantity due to dilution of quantity

So you cannot arrive this by just bottles. You have to get details of how much litres they produced from them

3 Likes

2013 Article but theme is still prevalent:

Interesting points:

  1. Pernod ricard has achieved better growth and margin in the past. Ricard’s strategy of focusing on the higher price points and avoid competing at the bottom end of the market has paid off in India with its premium brands finding a lot of buyers. In FY 2019, gross sales of pernod grew by 27%, USL by 10%. Also pernod made a net profit of 1300 cr, almost double of USL’s profit (700 Cr).
  2. The focus and investment on premium brands is helping in better growth. Premiumization theme is being pursued by all both Pernod and USL, and Radico is trying to go in the same direction. Radico has pipeline of launches in whisky segment.
  3. With a diversified and established portfolio of brands and also having muscle power to investment behing brand, USL and Pernod have better chance of getting lion’s share of premiumization theme. Radico can also co-exist in some niches.
  4. As bigger players focus on premium end, pricing intensity in the sector might be subdued for sometime, which can help in increasing overall profitability in the sector.
4 Likes

Jan 29 th concall points…
Borrowing has reduced from 960 cr in 2016 to 255 cr currently… Previous quarter it was 310 cr…
In q3 prestige category had a growth of 5% on an already large base number… And overall imfl growth of 0.6% whereas the industry degrew by -1%.
Company saw highest ever monthly volumes in December 2020…
Jaisalmer gin introduced in Mumbai, bengaluru and Hyderabad… Previously available only in Delhi and goa…
Response to Jaisalmer gin is very good…
Company wants to launch it pan India by this fiscal…
8pm premium black whiskey introduced in haryana and jharkand taking the states where it is available to 16states…
Company confident of achieving 1 million cask sale this fiscal…
Rampur double cask whiskey launched in Delhi…
Investment to produce single malt cask will bear fruit in coming years…
New flavour launched in verve vodka ( lemon and cranberry)… Now available in 5 flavours??..
Believe ENA prices will stay stable for the rest of the fiscal year…
Disc invested… Audio quality was not great… Do point out errors if u find any…

6 Likes

Interesting data point.

Alcohol consumption increased in the US plus shifted more to spirits.

Even in India, this shift is evident and can accelerate.

2 Likes

Fire accident in Rampur. Company saying there is no revenue impact as production stopped for few hours and damages are all covered in insurance.

4 Likes

For me , the most important comments from Q3 concall were -

  1. Exports at 7.5 pc of IMFL sales and growing at 80 pc for the 9M ending Dec 20.

  2. Govt banning Foreign made brands in CSDs which can potentially benefit brands like Jaiselmer and Rampur.

  3. Except for the AP market, where the route to market has been changed by the state govt, the Company’s volume growth was 9-10 pc. This is encouraging !!!

  4. Industry and business friendly regulations by UP govt helping them increase state’s revenues. Other states, now looking at UP and can potentially trend in that direction.

Disc : not invested.

Planning to initiate a tracking position.

4 Likes

Jaiselmer and Rampur select are not there in CSD and Foreign liquor brands are readily available in civil market . will not have much impact .
Exports of Indian brands primarily happens to middle east and African countries and prices are not that lucrative .
UP story is intact and RKL makes good money in country liquor segment there and Magic Moment brand is big in UP .
IN CSD Business RKL is shifting focus of 1965 Rum where it makes more money in comparison with Contessa Rum .

1 Like

Just an observation on Exports…

They may be sending bulk of their exports to Middle East, still the margins are 1.5 times, as brought out by the management during the concall. So the margins may not be huge, they are still better than domestic business.

Wrt CSD…

True, Rampur and Jaiselmer are not avlb in CSD at present. But they can be introduced. Plus, as far as I know, CSD has stopped selling imported liquor ( correct me if i m wrong ). Foreign brands can still sell, provided they are made in India. Now, I am not aware as to which all brands are imported and which are made in India.

Regards,
Ranvir Dehal

1 Like

Investor Presentation Q4FY21.

607220d3-0383-4b22-843d-9daa1201347c.pdf (1.6 MB)

1 Like

If you want to play on liquor industry. RKL is the best Play. Sharing below a brief table made post their FY20 numbers. Lots in specifics but numbers do speak volumes.

Also, FY21 despite Pandemic was far better for RKL vs USL. On a Static basis, USL may be the market leader, however if one looks at the history and on incremental basis, RKL is the Champion, gaining market share consistently.

6 Likes

Radico QoQ degrowth : 13%
USL QoQ degrowth : 23%

3 Likes

Radico Q1 Earnings concall summary -

  • 59% volume increase in IMFL on YoY

  • Radico became largest IMFL exporter from India in Q1

  • Future cash generation - capital investment with 20-25% ROCE, share buy back or putting dividend after board consideration

  • Export business - Rampur single malt - export demand is more than what company can supply. Right distributors to be present at right places at right time. 85 countries its present as of now. Upswing for PnA demand brands across markets. Liquor is highly cash product commodity. Checking local bottling possibilities in couple of markets. Taxes and duties advantage. Malaysia it started for Morphus.

  • Rampur and Jaisalmer are in process of getting listed in CSD. Magic Moment has 60% market share and in process of very premium brand which will compare with absolute.

  • 16 states covered as of now. Next 6 months in 5 to 6 months more. New brand launches are done in selective markets very carefully.

  • Working capital of 1000 crs approx. Working capital days has come done from 64 days to 33 days. Company aims to maintain it in 33-34 days in future.

  • Home delivery - to stay in long term. Initial phase with scaling problem as of now. Maharashtra its thriving bcs of home delivery was present unofficially earlier.

  • PnA has grown slower in Q1 for entire industry. Temp phenomena in second wave. From Jul its picking up in double digit. Industry lost 1% in market share from 19 to 18, Radico has increased its market share in PnA.

  • Whisky dominant market of India and Radico did very well despite strong whiskey brand (Bharat Shah’s compliment). Always priced products higher to the competition. High premium with high margin product launch time in near future. Old brands are taking momentum.

  • Blending capacity is core strength in production. Team is motivated with clear decision making roles and well equipped.

  • Market share - increasing presence and gain in whiskey. 8% overall market share. In vodka and rum has largest MS - 60%+. In whiskey 6% MS in Idnia.10% of market is focussed on premium space with 20$+ case.

  • Export contribution - 1.5 years doing very well. 7% revenue coming from export. Local bottling in mass market products being explored.

  • 100 Pipers, Teachers, Blenders Pride and Johny walker are competing in premium category in CSD. Company focussing on this market space.

  • Focus on organic growth with home-made brands.

  • Strong double-digit growth in current FY expected from RK if things goes on smoothly.

  • UP, Karnataka, Telangana, Andhra and Tamil Nadu - 5 states with 67% market share. TN has restricted policies. Apart from that Radico has strong presence in all other 4 states and growing

  • UP - per head consumption is quite low and large scope for growth, progressive liquour policies, opening up new and premium shops. 30%+ market share of RK and expect to grow there. Delhi, Punjab and Hariyana are adopting UP policies in selective manner.

6 Likes

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iriSC_eB13o&ab_channel=SOIC BY @Worldlywiseinvestors

1 Like

Radico Khaitan B&K meet :

With internet culture and middle class emerging, drink is not a taboo. With income level rising, premiumization is happening.

30% of alcohol industry is in White spirits Globally. In India, it is <5%, we are dominant in White spirits and we see good growth potential.

On normalized basis, Our industry should witness volume growth 8-9% and premium side double digits and white spirits will be even faster than this.

Drinking at home : more consumption since we can consume more.

Our industry is largest revenue source for state government. Every state depends on liquor industry. 28 states 28 different countries and if states ban, illegal cross border sales happen.

Covid tax imposed is reversed since it impacts volumes and impacts their revenues indirectly.

Delhi : is becoming more like UP. UP is the best state for liquor and we are leader there. Many states will encourage easy drinking.

We always have given younger taste, and modern packaging.

8PM : name was unique. Indians usually drink at 8. We advertised it uniquely, was awarded best Ad. Did 1 million case 1 year and came in limca book of records. In 8 years, we did 10 millions cases.

Magic moments in 2007, priced it very high and did different packaging where we printed on it.

Morpheus brandy market share of 60%.

We concentrated on free cashflow. FCF was linked to EBITDA and collections and hence let go of unprofitable avenues lost volumes but helped us in free cashflow.

Jaisalmer Gin : priced at 3600 top end of Gin market.

30% to 50% in 4 years : Premium portfolio. Going forward, we will focus on premium. Expect double digit for next 5-7 years.

8PM Premium Black : We did 1.2 million cases despite Covid and this year will do 2 million cases.

We will introduce luxury whisky one of kind in Indian Market.

Capacity : more than 50% we outsource.

Distribution : equivalent to any of the top company.

Only company : launched 12 brands in last 10 years (only company to do this.)

In producing 1 litre of alcohol, we consume lowest water in Industry since we recycle and use. Earlier it was 12 litre now 6 litre : Shows focus on environment.

We rate suppliers on sustainability model and their practices.

We do keep doing planting trees drives.

From time Abhishek joined, it is only business, so much scope and I love this business and no plans for diversification.

Some unbranded business :
Country liquor business in UP. We dont intend to expand restrict it to UP.

Any distillery compulsory has to produce country liquor for state purpose.

We sell everything on cash and requires least resources basically low margin but safe business.

Regular range in those states where contribution is high. For us volumes is easy, we are chasing profitable growth. Regular range states where pricing is good is our focus.

Whisky :

If you look at history of Radico. Radico moved forward only with Premiumisation strategy. Price leadership will always be focus just as other portfolios explained below. 8PM premium black 1.2 million 18 months of launch. This shows our premiusation is working for us.

Vodka we are price leader too and market share leadership too.

Rum : we have market leadership with Contessa and 1965 Victory along with price premium.

Brandy : We have leadership even here with price premium.

Q3FY22 : We will launch whisky which will compare with international brands. Every launch will be premium in pricing.

We dont believe in inorganic growth. Hardly any premium brands for acquisition. We won’t acquire regular brands and dilute EBITDA margins.

Cash will be : Dividends or buyback.

CSD (Canteen Stores department) : For Rampur and Jaisalmer huge opportunity here.

Next 3-4 years premium portfolio from 50% to 60%. Margins will get better.

When GST came, States now only have liquor income under their control. Hence every states wants liquor favorable system.

Online ordering : Boost sales from Woman POV since our liquor shops are not that great.

13 Likes
1 Like