My Portfolio_Homemaker


(Tushar) #172

Based on your posts, you seem to have way more knowledge than me still I felt I should reply to this post. People who are saying there will be 6 months bear/stagnant market, know nothing about future. People saying there will be 2 years of bear market, know nothing about future. People saying this is the right time to invest and there is bull market ahead, know nothing about future. What I know is we have to find out companies which are going to grow, have proven management, available at discount to its long term price or in a sector with tailwinds, not gamble, keep moderate expectations and keep investing. Keep buying and selling when the price demands it or there is change in business fundamentals. The earlier we reach to that stage of being a calm investor, the better for us. If we take decisions based on what others say or from Moneycontrol articles, we will still keep buying and selling without actually investing.


(Anirudha Limaye) #173

Completely agree. The best thing to do is to find and invest in great companies and put yourself in a place where good things can happen. I dont know when a bull market will start or a bear market will end, but I am convinced that 10 years later the broader market will be meaningfully higher than what it is today. And as such, all well run companies will do well. I have made a ton of mistakes, but investing is a journey and we learn and survive to fight another day. Stick to the basics, dont bother predicting markets, focus on great companies is my philosophy.


#174

Thanks for posting your broad views. Quite relevant I must admit.

However, by saying waiting in sidelines, I didnot mean exiting the market. I mean a significantly higher cash %, till the time dust settles or we find a secular rising pattern. By not being invested, it’s very difficult to track market, developments…its not recommended. Perfect timing is a myth!

Even short term FD instead of cash will give good 5 to 6 %. Isn’t it?

Also, I read @ayushmit presentation. I was amazed at his humbleness, that many times he puts money and then tracks stocks. By putting small money, you get kind of married, and your research becomes better with passing quarters.

He suggested a concept of tail stocks or tracking stocks with little weightage and gradually load up as conviction develops. It made a lot of practical sense.

I will shortly come up with 5 tail stocks investment in small, micro caps in portfolio… WIP😊


(Amit Jain) #175

Rightly said. One must strive to ensure that he remains invested for 10 + years. However the market conspires. It makes ordinary investors exit the Holdings. It scares, bores or clouds them with greed.


(Anirudha Limaye) #176

money moves from the active to the patient


#177

Investment decisions are so complex. A rough comparison of fundamental parameters of Yes bank & Kotak, will show Yes Bank as a value pick compared to expensive Kotak. And here we have the father of value investing betting with 10% stake on Kotak. Seems Mr.Buffet forgot to use PE & DCF calculators :grinning:

May be Kotak, caters to HNI customers, which in india is going to grow in next decade. That’s why.

YB KMB
P/E (TTM) x 8.5 38.6
P/BV x 1.5 4.7
Dividend Yield % 1.6 0.1

(Amit Jain) #178

Today Yes Bank is cheap. But cheapness in the present is not what they are seeking.

IMO, five years later for Kotak RS.1300 per share will be 15x it’s prevailing EPS at the time. But, for Yes Bank such a visibility is absent, it is a gamble.


(anirband87) #179

Not sure if the news is genuine or if the deal would close.
As of yesterday’s close, Kotak had a market cap of 225,000 Cr or ~32 Billion USD (assuming 70 INR/USD). Berkshire is valuing 10% at 4 to 6 Billion. If the deal progresses stock would likely run up quite a bit.

Disclosure: Kotak Mahindra Bank is 5% of my portfolio.


(simplyraghav) #180

On twitter, many experts are saying that this supposed ‘News’ is just a rumour, yet another planted story and since, both parties have not offered any comment on the same, it is mere speculation.


#181

Dear VPickers !

In continuation to my earlier post on creating a Tail/ Tracking stock list - out of small/microcap space, I have used the below logic. I Plan to allocate 1-2% on each. Its like R&D spend. If after 1-3 quarters, thinks look better and I develop more conviction, then will allocate 5%.

  1. Small MCap
  2. Price momentum on high
  3. Recent quarter growth is great (YoY jump)
  4. Good return ratios
  5. Universe is from known list from screener, VP, MC, ET etc & not from Index
  6. Preference for sector with tailwind- chemicals, electrode etc
  7. MNC or MNC stake preferred due to product, management quality & perception
  8. PEG reasonable (Even though PE can be high)
  9. Little cursory research on website, annual report, products- but more of feel good type
  10. Valuation, runway, cyclicity, competition not in scope of work as of now.
S.No. Name CMP Rs. Down % P/E Qtr Sales Var % Qtr Profit Var % ROCE % ROE %
1 Atul 3369 7 27 28 70 19 13
2 Kennametal India 962 13 29 25 144 20 14
3 Merck 2883 19 34 10 65 19 12
4 GMM Pfaudler 1094 9 38 30 40 29 20

I request, your feedback and criticism !!!
Thanks :grinning:

Disc: Not invested. Interested. Concept inspired from @Yogesh_s for company life cycle chart and @ayushmit for his presentation in annual meet.


#182

This is indeed pathetic and stupid journalism…totally unnecessary.Thanks for updating. I don’t use twitter.


(arpitjain512) #183

Few small/micro caps worth looking at :
Gmm Pfaudler
Sonata Software
Suven Lifescience
Caplin Point Lab
Salasar Techno Engineering
PSP Projects


(Matt1985) #184

Appreciate your hardwork and quick turnaround. I am not totally against buying a few select stocks to keep in your watch list. However, I would prefer to keep an active watch list (in some websites such as screener, etc) and keep tracking them on a regular basis (rather than actually buying them). I am of the view it does not make sense if you cant at least buy 4% - 5% weightage of one’s portfolio as the risk is always the same. Just my view, no, offence to the approach elucidated by the seniors / your approach too.

Coming back to the shortlisted ones, i would saw all are better names and if i am not mistaken, except Atul all are MNCs (Pfaudler being the MNC JV with GMM). However, note that all these stocks are illiquid. That being said, by the time, one have developed the conviction the prices might have gone up or down. Where we buy the desired quantity staggered manner, please bear in mind that one cannot unwind the position easily on an adverse news (or as the case may be). So, I would pick a bit more better known names and liquid ones from the small cap universe. Also, note the none of the above names enjoy double digit sales growth on a 3 year basis. Just my two cents.

Regards,
Matt


#186

@arpitjain512

I have seen quite a few post of yours. Indeed very helpful. But your writing style is so precise and short that your posts look like that of an operator giving hot tips on SMS. :grinning:

I have ranked up almost 50 odd mid/small caps against PEG, Sales growth 3 years, profit growth 3 years, ROE, ROCE, Dividend Yield, recent YoY growth of sales & profit. Ranked each ratio as 1 or -1. Like sales growth 3 years > 20% gets +1 and less than 20% gets -1. After that did a cumulative sum of all individual ranks like ( +1+1-1+1+1-1=2). Then selected top basis cumulative rank. Voila :hushed:Here is what I came up with. I know this is a gross method, far from being statistically accurate, but still helps filter the cream (debatable) out.

Some of them, clearly deserves attention, but few are avoid due to recent carnage and headwinds. Hope fellow boarders will like this excel ranking.

Rank Stock
1 Automotive Axles
2 PSP Projects
3 Tata Elxsi
4 Piramal Enterp.
5 Sterlite Tech.
6 Salasar Techno
7 Avanti Feeds
8 Caplin Point Lab
9 Mangalam Organic
10 Bharat Rasayan
11 V I P Inds.
12 GMM Pfaudler
13 Valiant Organics
14 L&T Technology
15 Sonata Software

#187

Thanks for a very important point raised by you. I never looked at liquidity as a factor. I guess, low volume is the main identifier, right.

Also , as my core portfolio is large cap heavy and I am only looking at a tail/tracking list so would avoid mid-large or large-mid caps. I am trying to skim small/micro specific to this situation.


(arpitjain512) #188

Haha. I will take it as a complement “Operator message with Quality scripts only”.

The list you shared Comprises of many stocks from my Watchlist and current pf.
My views on few of them :
PEL : Bet on Management Ajay Piramal
Tata Elxsi vs LTTS : LTTS much better although Elxsi is also vood bet.
Gmm Pfaudler : MNC, a little high valuation. Good bet
Sterlite : Optical Fibre Sector Leader with sector tailwinds
PSP : Best bet in this sector although sector headwinds
Sonata : Good financials and Dividend play
VIP : Stock ran much in recent after A long long consolidation. Valuation on higher side but good bet.


(Krishnendu) #189

I believe PSP Projcts is a really good pick but we have to wait for the sectoral tailwind here. I would love to hold this in my portfolio but in a right time might be after the general election was over we will get a clear picture about this sector to enter.


#190

Interesting article on Buy on Dips and mistake of combining value with momentum. While each strategy makes money, combining two can be dangerous. For true value investors, intrinsic value is so very important. PE, down from High, 52 week high low etc has no meaning.


(Divyanshu Bagga) #191

Buying the dips is always fraught with danger, unless you are an expert like Warren Buffett, who can distinguish between legitimate business facing temporary distress from value traps and frauds. Most retail investors cannot do that, and that’s why they should not try to catch falling. Yet we see more and more retail investors buying Yes Bank, comparing it to Warren Buffett’s purchase of American express. But there is a huge difference between the two. When Buffett bought American express, he would have done extensive due diligence, on the contrary, most retail investors know a fraction of what institutional investors know, who are on the selling side. They forget to ask the most important question - what gives them the edge over seller of the stock?


#192

Is buying on dips OK for index funds or mutual funds. Is it better in some way than latching on to say a yes bank, tata motors or sun pharma?

My view is a stock can be a value trap or fraud or have extreme headwinds. An index or a MF is inherently diversified. So dips are due to macro headwinds or overvaluation which gets better with time.